Efforts to scale the US sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market will hinge on the industry's ability to narrow the price premium to conventional jet fuel, an impossible task without expanded policy and a coordinated industry focus, stakeholders said today.
"The final frontier of scale is cost," SGP Bioenergy chief executive officer Randy Delbert Letang said at the Argus North American Biofuels, LCFS and Carbon Summit. Airlines are ultimately concerned with the economic feasibility of low carbon fuels versus conventional, Letang said, adding that where finer details on the road to the lowest-cost and -carbon SAF are concerned, they don't necessarily want to "know or see how the sausage is made".
Fellow panelists deemed advancement in feedstock technology, risk mitigation for investors and lenders and a coordinated industry effort as essential in scaling SAF in the US and abroad via the lowering of SAF prices.
Incentive programs such as Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) programs across the west coast, and the potential for expansion into other states, are one way to narrow the gap. But those present opposed restrictions on incentives between renewable feedstocks, such as those recently proposed for diesel alternatives in California, and agreed the market remains in too early a stage for complicating incentives.
To narrow the scope of the aviation industry's carbon-reduction discussion to specific feedstocks and their respective carbon intensity scores could "let perfect be the enemy of good," said Earl Holle, Phillips 66's renewable fuels commercial optimization manager.
As SAF projects are alternately proposed and shuttered, panelists emphasized a need for the industry to mitigate but ultimately accept the risks inherent to an adolescent and quickly evolving market. Ensuring the industry's narrative is consistent will be key in the next few years to convincing investors and lenders to accept that risk, Letang said. Reducing the carbon footprint of conventional petroleum fuels via blending biofuels, as well as expanding the applicability of those fuels — to the maritime and aviation industries, as example — is the best focus of industry efforts in the near term, he added.
