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Japan pushes abatement approach to energy transition

  • Market: Coal, Crude oil, Electricity, Fertilizers, Hydrogen, Natural gas
  • 23/09/24

Japan is keen to promote its energy transition approach, focused on carbon abatement technologies, to the wider coal-reliant Asia-Pacific region.

The country has accelerated development of carbon abatement technologies to keep fossil fuels in its energy mix and boost energy security and economic growth. Japan, with its G7 counterparts, pledged to phase out "unabated" coal-fired plants by 2035, or "in a timeline consistent with keeping a limit of a 1.5°C temperature rise within reach, in line with countries' net zero pathways".

This is a major step for Japan, a resource-poor country. But legislative progress aimed at developing value chains for carbon capture and storage (CCS) and cleaner fuels, such as hydrogen and ammonia, might have encouraged Tokyo to commit, especially since the G7 text allows for some wiggle room.To ensure continued use of its abated thermal power plants, trade and industry ministry has requested ¥11.2bn ($79mn) to support CCS projects, including exploration of CO2 storage sites, for 2025-26, up sharply from the ¥1.2bn budgeted for 2024-25.

Japan has yet to set a date to achieve the phase-out target. But it had already promised not to build new unabated coal-fired plants at last year's UN Cop 28 climate talks, while pledging to phase out "inefficient" coal-fired plants by 2030. Less than 5pc of Japan's operational coal fleet has a planned retirement year, according to analysis by Global Energy Monitor, and these might comprise the oldest and least efficient plants. Coal capacity built in the last decade, following the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear disaster, is unlikely to receive a retirement date without a countrywide policy that calls for a coal exit.

Japan's coal demand could decline, to some extent, under global divestment pressure. But the fuel remains key, as the government sees renewables and nuclear as insufficient to meet rising power demand driven by the growth of data centres needed to enable artificial intelligence.

Continental divide

The country is keen to extend its vision for "various" and "practical" pathways, including abatement technologies, to coal-reliant southeast Asia. This stems from Tokyo's sceptical view about promoting a more European approach to the energy transition — driven by wind and solar power — to Asian countries. Japan stresses the importance of more diversified pathways, including thermal power with abatement. The country aims to spur decarbonisation in Asia-Pacific through a platform called the Asia Zero Emission Community (Azec) initiated in 2022. Asia-Pacific accounts for more than half of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, at 17.178bn t of CO2 equivalent, according to the IEA.

In Jakarta last month, 11 Azec countries emphasised the need to co-operate "to decarbonise coal power generation". The platform sets out options such as biogas, hydrogen and ammonia, and retrofitting with CCS and carbon capture, utilisation and storage. Japan's industries have already committed to carbon abatement at coal-fired plants in Asia, leveraging their technological know-how.

Tokyo has pledged to provide about $70bn to support decarbonisation globally. This funding is part of wider financial assistance to help mobilise the estimated $28 trillion that Asia requires. To secure the funding, Japan has already issued part of a $139bn climate transition bond and aims to strengthen the financial support through the Asia Zero Emission Centre, the latest Azec initiative, under which transitional finance will be studied further, a trade and industry ministry official told Argus.

Japan is on track to reduce its GHG emissions by 46pc by the April 2030-March 2031 fiscal year from its 2013-14 level, and hit its net zero emissions goal by 2050.

Japan CO2 emissions by sector

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03/05/25

Opec+ eight agree accelerated hike for June: Update

Opec+ eight agree accelerated hike for June: Update

London, 3 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ members has agreed to accelerate, for a second consecutive month, their plan to unwind some of their production cuts, the Opec secretariat said Saturday. As it did for May, the group will again raise its collective output target by 411,000 b/d in June, three times as much as it had planned in its original roadmap to gradually unwind 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts by the middle of next year. The original plan envisaged a slow and steady unwind over 18 months from April, with monthly increments of about 137,000 b/d. But today's decision means that the eight — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — will have unwound almost half of the 2.2mn b/d cut in the space of just three months. The decision to maintain this accelerated pace into June is somewhat surprising, given the weakness in oil prices and the outlook for the global economy. The eight's decision last month to deliver a three-in-one hike in May was seen as a key reason for the recent slide in oil prices, alongside US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Front month Ice Brent futures have fallen by about $13/bl since early April to stand at just over $61/bl. But the eight today pointed to "current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories" as a key factor in its latest decision. It reiterated, as it has in the past, that the gradual monthly increases "may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions." As was the case for May, delegates said that the main driver for the June hike was again a desire to send a message to those countries that have persistently breached their production targets since the start of last year — most notably Kazakhstan and Iraq, which each have significant overproduction to compensate for through the middle of next year. "This measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation," the secretariat said. This group of eight is due to next meet on 1 June to review market conditions and decide on July production levels. By Nader Itayim, Aydin Calik and Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Opec+ eight to agree another accelerated hike for June


03/05/25
News
03/05/25

Opec+ eight to agree another accelerated hike for June

London, 3 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ members look set to today to accelerate, for a second consecutive month, their plan to unwind some of their production cuts, four delegates told Argus . As it did for May, the group would again raise its collective output target by 411,000 b/d in June, three times as much as it had planned in its original roadmap to gradually unwind 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts by the middle of next year. The original plan envisaged a slow and steady unwind over 18 months from April, with monthly increments of about 137,000 b/d. But today's decision would mean that the eight — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — will have unwound almost half of the 2.2mn b/d cut in the space of just three months. The decision to maintain this accelerated pace into June would be somewhat surprising, particularly given the weakness in oil prices and the outlook for the global economy. The eight's decision last month to deliver a three-in-one hike in May was seen as a key reason for the recent slide in oil prices, alongside US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Front month Ice Brent futures have fallen by about $13/bl since early April to stand at just over $61/bl. While Opec+ has said that it is acting to support an expected rise in summer demand, the decision to speed up the output increases once again appears to be driven by a desire to send a message to countries that have persistently breached their production targets — most notably Kazakhstan and Iraq. By Aydin Calik, Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Exxon sees 45V surviving, needs blue H2 offtake


02/05/25
News
02/05/25

Exxon sees 45V surviving, needs blue H2 offtake

Houston, 2 May (Argus) — ExxonMobil chief executive officer Darren Woods expects low-carbon hydrogen production incentives to survive a White House review, but he wants more sales commitments before making a final investment decision on a company project in Baytown, Texas. "Our expectation is that things that we need to drive low-carbon hydrogen will probably stay in place," Woods said during the company's first-quarter earnings call Friday. "But we have to see that manifested." Woods has said that the 45V hydrogen production tax credit is "critical" to establishing a market for the zero-emissions fuel that can stand on its own and compete against fossil fuels. The company is developing what it describes as the largest low-carbon hydrogen plant in the world in Baytown, designed to produce 1bn cf/d of hydrogen from natural gas with carbon capture. While the 45Q incentive is available for projects using carbon capture and sequestration to lower emissions, ExxonMobil has repeatedly indicated it is pursuing the more lucrative 45V for the massive hydrogen and ammonia production project planned on the Texas Gulf coast. In addition to certainty about federal incentives, Woods said the company also needs to secure more offtake agreements in order to make a final investment decision. "I'd say right now that's probably the long pole in the tent with respect to driving this," Woods said. "When those two things come together and we're confident that we have what we need to generate the returns that's going to be required to justify the investments, we'll move forward. Hopefully, that's later this year." Most of the project's production would be used to decarbonize operations at Exxon's 564,500 b/d Baytown refinery, while the remainder is being targeted for exports in the form of ammonia. In January, the company signed an agreement to sell ammonia to European trading firm Trammo. Japanese power producer Jera has said it is considering 500,000 t/yr of ammonia offtake as part of its plans to take an equity stake in the project. By Jasmina Kelemen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico bets on new contract model to lift gas output


02/05/25
News
02/05/25

Mexico bets on new contract model to lift gas output

Mexico City, 2 May (Argus) — Mexico's push to raise domestic gas output to 5 Bcf/d by 2030 depends on a new shared participation model designed to attract private investment, with four strategic gas fields prioritized as tenders begin. State-owned Pemex this week released the detailed guidelines for the mixed production scheme, first introduced in February. The model guarantees Pemex at least a 40pc share of production and gives the company wide discretion to set contract terms and choose the bidding process — including no-bid awards. But interest in the new contracts is expected to center on Mexican firms with close ties to President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration, such as Carlos Slim's Grupo Carso, according to market sources. "With these guidelines, Pemex can finally pick and choose who they want, how they want," said Miriam Grunstein, a former adviser to energy regulator CRE and senior partner at Brilliant Energy Consulting. "The downside is they are likely to turn to Mexican firms that lack the technical experience for complex projects, rather than international companies with the know-how for deep-water or unconventional plays," Grunstein said. "This scheme isn't made for companies like BHP, Total, or Eni," added Eduardo Prud'homme, former technical director at Cenagas and co-partner at consultancy Gadex. "Pemex doesn't want operators as partners. Though it is perfect for Carso." A relative newcomer to the upstream sector, Carso is one of the government's most important contractors for infrastructure projects and stands to gain on future business whether or not the upstream partnerships succeed. Prud'homme doubts international majors looking for a one-off deal would be willing to take on the heavily regulated, high-risk projects when the maximum stake is 60pc. "If you fail, Pemex will not share the loss," said Prud'homme. "If you succeed, Pemex decides how much to share." Pemex management said it plans to launch 17 projects under the new scheme this year. It remains unclear how many of these will focus on gas development. Still, gas is a core focus. Pemex's 2025–2030 business plan allocates Ps238bn (US$12.1bn) to gas projects in pursuit of the 5 Bcf/d goal. Four key fields — Burgos, Quesqui, Ixachi and Bakte — are expected to provide 54pc of total projected output. Carso is already active, partnering with Pemex on the complex deep-water Lakach gas project, which is now expected to migrate from a service contract to the new mixed contract model. Slim began renegotiations in February after the model was announced. Carso has also expanded upstream, buying into the oil-rich Zama project in December. In March, Sheinbaum confirmed the government is in talks with Carso to partner on Ixachi. Turning the tide Still, gas output continues to decline. An analysis by Mexican think tank IMCO found that Pemex and its farmout partners this year posted their lowest first-quarter gas production in 15 years. In the first quarter, Pemex produced 4.408 Bcf/d of gas, down by 8pc from the same period in 2024 and 12pc lower compared with the same quarter 2023. The 367 MMcf/d annual decline marks the steepest first-quarter drop since 2018, when output fell by 536 MMcf/d year over year. On the positive side, Pemex's natural gas production in March ticked 0.3pc higher from the previous month to 4.39 Bcf/d – marking the second consecutive month of increases after February output was up 1.3pc from January. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Eight Opec+ members weigh further acceleration


02/05/25
News
02/05/25

Eight Opec+ members weigh further acceleration

Dubai, 2 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ producers meet on 3 May to decide whether to repeat last month's surprise move to add extra oil to an increasingly weak market. The main motivation for the group of eight's decision to triple the size of their output increase for May remains, suggesting that a repeat could be on the cards for June. As the dust began to settle on last month's decision, it became clear that raising their combined output target by 411,000 b/d in one month, rather than the scheduled 137,000 b/d, was rooted not only in stronger fundamentals, as the official communique suggests, but also in a desire to send a message to those countries that have persistently breached their production targets. The main culprits are Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have consistently failed to keep their production in check since the start of last year (see graph). The two are left with a lot to do by way of compensating for those excess barrels between now and the middle of next year (see graph). Russia, too, has overproduced during that period, but to a much lesser degree relative to its overall output. That persistent overproduction has been a source of deep frustration among other countries in the group of eight — principally the core of Opec's Mideast Gulf members — that have "sacrificed", in the words of one delegate, to adhere to their targets. April's decision was a nod to those that have sacrificed and a sharp warning to Kazakhstan and Iraq to do better and to do so quickly. Two delegates stressed to Argus at the time that the coming weeks would be critical for Baghdad and Astana to show that they were serious about abiding by their quotas. Failure to do so could trigger another "surprise" move for June, they said, possibly even another three-in-one hike. It was little surprise, then, that some ill-timed comments by Kazakh energy minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov on 23 April — in which he explicitly said Astana's national interests take priority over its Opec+ commitments, and that the country simply "cannot" reduce output — triggered serious speculation about whether the eight may repeat last month's decision. March data from Iraq, too, were not ideal, in that while they showed that Iraq did produce below quota, its efforts to compensate fell well short. Timing is everything Some in the group of eight may well be tempted to go down that route, thinking a second consecutive "shock" could deliver the desired wake-up call that the first did not. Two delegate sources confirmed to Argus that another 411,000 b/d target increase for June remains a distinct possibility. But such a course of action would be risky. Crude is already trading $12/bl below where it was when the group last met, and demand-side concerns are again on the rise because of the potential impact of US trade tariffs. The Opec secretariat and the IEA downgraded 2025 oil demand growth forecasts in their latest oil market outlooks. Opec revised its forecast down to 1.3mn b/d from 1.45mn b/d in its previous report. The IEA revised down its forecast by a sizeable 310,000 b/d to 730,000 b/d for 2025, despite "robust" consumption in the first quarter. It downgraded its forecast for April-December by 400,000 b/d. Another three-in-one hike for June would be "difficult" to imagine in this market, one delegate says. With that said, the eight's options include a "standard" 137,000 b/d rise to the group's collective target for June, in line with the original schedule, or, at a push, a two-in-one hike. That would not only send that internal message to the least compliant of the group, but also act as a show of good faith towards US president Donald Trump ahead of his visit to Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha on 13-16 May. By Nader Itayim, Bachar Halabi and Aydin Calik Opec+ overproducers Opec+ compensation plan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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