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US light vehicle sales surged in September

  • Market: Biofuels, Crude oil, Metals, Oil products
  • 03/10/24

Domestic sales of light vehicles rebounded in September, increasing to a seasonally adjusted rate of 15.8mn on the strength of greater truck purchases.

Sales of light vehicles — trucks and cars — rose from a seasonally adjusted annual of rate 15.3mn in August, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today. Sales have whipsawed the previous four months, but September's rate largely was in line with the 15.7mn unit rate in September 2023.

The US Federal Reserve last month cut its target rate for the first time since 2020, bringing it down by 50 basis points from its 23-year highs as inflation has been easing. Lower inflation and Fed easing, which ripples across credit markets, make it more affordable for people to purchase new vehicles. Fed policymakers have penciled in another 150 basis points worth of cuts through 2025, as they hope to head off any weakening in the labor market that could scuttle the wider economy.

Higher overall sentiment about the US economy, fueled by a robust 3pc growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter, healthy labor conditions and consumer spending also have encouraged consumers to spend.

Sequentially, light truck sales increased by 3.1pc to a 12.8mn unit rate in September, while sales of cars rose by 4.4pc to a 3mn unit rate in the same time period.


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03/10/24

Israel-Iran conflict threatens Mena steel supply

Israel-Iran conflict threatens Mena steel supply

London, 3 October (Argus) — The escalating Israel-Iran conflict could lead to a shortage of steel and steelmaking raw materials in the Mena region because of potential logistical disruptions and a surge in freight prices. Tensions have risen after the killing of the leader of Iran-backed Hezbollah militia Hassan Nasrallah , by Israel on 27 September, which sparked retaliation from Iran. This has seen an increase in attacks on vessels in the Red Sea by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis, disrupting trade routes. The conflict could adversely affect construction and steel demand in the Mena region, which remains a key export outlet for long steel products, as well as billets. "The attacks are highly likely to increase and imports from Asia to Turkey will be negatively impacted due to high freight and therefore, high steel prices," said a Turkish integrated producer whose steel cargo was targeted by Houthi missiles a few months ago. An international iron ore trader echoed this, expecting freight prices to increase. Over the past few years, Israel and Yemen were important rebar export destinations for Turkey. But in April , Turkey imposed a trade ban on Israel. Turkish rebar exports to Yemen have sharply dropped owing to risks to shipments. Currently steel trading activity with Lebanon is on hold . Lebanon typically purchases high volumes of long steel, particularly rebar, from Egypt, Algeria and Libya. Market participants in the UAE, a major producer and consumer in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC), had previously anticipated a strong final quarter of the year, because of expected increases in construction activity from large-scale projects. But should the situation escalates, projects could be on hold and demand will shrink, a producer warned. Trading in Oman faces greater risk compared with other GCC countries because of its shared border with Yemen. The conflict could also negatively impact the flat steel industry in north Africa, as many re-rollers import hot-rolled coils (HRC) for re-rolling or coating, often finding it more feasible to use supply from Asia rather than local material. "HRC imports to Algeria will be endangered and this will increase prices of cold-rolled coils (CRC) and galvanised steel prices," a market participant commented. By Elif Eyuboglu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico’s oil products by rail up 11pc Jan-Aug


03/10/24
News
03/10/24

Mexico’s oil products by rail up 11pc Jan-Aug

Mexico City, 3 October (Argus) — Mexico transported 11pc more gasoline, diesel and petrochemicals by rail in the first eight months of 2024 than in the same period a year prior. Mexico's railroads moved 11.8mn metric tonnes (t) of those products year to date August, up from 10.7mn t in the same period a year earlier, according to national railway association (ARTF) data. Year-to-date August growth slowed this year from the 12pc annual growth in the same period in 2023. ARTF said that oil and related products accounted for 13pc of the total 91mn t of cargo shipped from January-August 2024, but it did not disclose shipment data by specific product. The products share of overall cargo is just above the 12pc of all cargo shipped in the first eight months of 2023. The Tamaulipas state petrochemical hub transported most of Mexico's oil products by rail from January-August, with about 3.49mn t, or 30pc, of the total volume. The hub, adjacent to key US export centers, is home to state-owned Pemex's 190,000 b/d Madero refinery. The state of Veracruz, where Pemex operates its 285,000 b/d Minatitlan refinery, was the second-largest transporter of oil and refined products by rail, at 22pc, or 2.6mn t. Pemex typically transports around 4pc of its refined products — imported or domestically produced — by rail. Private-sector data are not available. Diesel demand for cargo transport reached 485mn l (12,600 b/d) from January-August, a 3.2pc hike from the same period last year. Meanwhile, demand for diesel used for passenger rail transport more than doubled to 4.1mn l. Passenger rail boom? Diesel consumption for passenger rail is set to rise in coming years with President Claudia Sheinbaum promising to add more than 3,000km (1,865 miles) of passenger rail during her six-year term. This is in addition to the 1,460km Maya railroad, which is expanding operations across the Yucatan peninsula. Sheinbaum, who took office on 1 October, has pledged to complete expansion of this line, introduce cargo traffic and complete projects like the Inter-oceanic railway and its extension to the Guatemala border. Other projects will connect passenger rail to key cities in central Mexico, among them the Mexico-Queretaro route . By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Libya lifts force majeure as oil blockade ends


03/10/24
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03/10/24

Libya lifts force majeure as oil blockade ends

London, 3 October (Argus) — Libya has begun to ramp up crude production after state-owned NOC lifted force majeure on all fields and terminals today. This should restore Libya's crude production to more than 1.2mn b/d, from an estimated 500,000 b/d. NOC declared force majeure after much of Libya's output was forced offline by a blockade imposed by the country's eastern-based administration in late August. Libya's eastern-based parliament earlier this week approved an agreement to resolve a leadership crisis at the central bank, which had prompted the blockade. NOC also lifted force majeure at the El Sharara oil field, which was shut down before the blockade. Output at the field, which normally produces about 260,000-270,000 b/d, has started, a source told Argus . By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Indonesia’s Ni expansion via HPAL could face challenges


03/10/24
News
03/10/24

Indonesia’s Ni expansion via HPAL could face challenges

Singapore, 3 October (Argus) — Indonesia is expected to continue expanding its nickel production in the coming years, especially through increasing its high-pressure acid-leaching (HPAL) capacity, but the lack of readily available sulphuric acid and proper management of the tailings waste could pose challenges to this plan. Production is expected to rise despite an anticipated surplus in the supply of nickel in the market. Sulphuric acid is used in the HPAL process to separate nickel and cobalt from nickel ore to produce mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), which is the feedstock for the downstream processing of nickel sulphate, cathode and battery. Indonesia is expected to produce 325,000-345,000t of MHP this year, up from around 269,000t of in 2023, according to market sources. But with several MHP projects planned to come online in the next few years, MHP output for the next three years is projected to treble to 800,000-900,000t, according to the country's deputy minister for the co-ordinating ministry for maritime and investment affairs Septian Hario Seto on 2 October at a metal event in London. As this would require a lot more nickel ore and sulphuric acid, there are concerns that the availability of limonite ore could deplete as fast as the saprolite ore supply, which is mainly used for nickel pig iron and matte production. There were also discussions that the Indonesian government will convene with nickel market participants to discuss about the supply situation of limonite ore. There are currently four HPAL facilities operating in Indonesia. This includes Huayou's Huayue and Huafei projects , GEM's QMB project and Lygend's HPAL project. Others were also concerned that the availability of sulphuric acid could be a limiting factor to Indonesia's rapid expansion of HPAL production, as sulphuric acid demand from Indonesian HPAL projects is expected to reach 7.12mn t in 2025, almost 40pc increase from this year's demand at 5.17mn t, according to Argus estimates. Indonesia has been importing sulphuric acid from mainly China and South Korea to meet the growing demand for its production units at Obi Island and Sulawesi. But a ramp-up in sulphur-burning operations has pushed several MHP producers like Halmahera Persada Lygend to switch to buying lower-cost sulphur instead. For most sulphur burners, 1t of sulphur produces around 3t of sulphuric acid. The startup of Freeport McMoran's Manyar smelter in Java integrated industrial and port estate in East Java's Gresik, coupled with mining firm Amman Mineral Nusa Tenggara's (AMNT) copper smelter in the West Sumbawa regency of Nusa Tenggara province, is also expected to alleviate some supply concerns, with the two expected to add at least 3mn t/yr of acid capacity by the end of 2025. Proper disposal of tailings waste could pose another challenge to Indonesia's planned HPAL expansion, particularly with increasing scrutiny on the environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards by Indonesia's mining industry. The HPAL process generates a large volume of tailings, with energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie estimating an output of 1.4-1.6t of waste from every 1t of nickel produced through HPAL. There are three common ways to dispose tailings waste – tailings dam, deep sea tailings and dry stacking. Dry stacking is more widely used because it is considered as the more sustainable option. But dry stacking also comes with its own environmental and biodiversity risks, as Indonesia's seasonal wet weather and seismic activity of the site could be a problem for waste storage. To ensure a smooth expansion in HPAL production, it is crucial for Indonesia to find ways to secure the necessary sulphuric acid supplies and to adopt appropriate methods for tailings waste disposal. By Sheih Li Wong and Deon Ngee Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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California adds oilseed limits as vote nears: Update


02/10/24
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02/10/24

California adds oilseed limits as vote nears: Update

Updates throughout with more detail on revisions. Houston, 2 October (Argus) — California regulators advanced stricter limits on crop-based biofuels as revisions to a key North American low-carbon incentive program drew closer to a vote. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) late yesterday added sunflower oil — a feedstock with no current approved users or previous indicated use in the program — to restrictions first proposed in August on canola and soybean oil feedstocks for biomass-based diesel. The new language maintained a proposal to make the program's annual targets 9pc tougher in 2025 and to achieve by 2030 a 30pc reduction from 2010 transportation fuel carbon intensity levels. Board decisions that could come as early as 8 November may reconfigure the flow of low-carbon fuels across North America. The state credits anchor a bouquet of incentives that have driven the rapid buildout of renewable diesel capacity and dairy biogas capture systems far beyond California's borders, and inspired similar, but separate, programs along the US west coast and in Canada. CARB staff's latest proposals, published a little before midnight ET on 1 October, offer comparatively minor adjustments to the shock August revisions that spurred a nearly $20 after-hours rally in LCFS prompt prices. Prompt credits early in Wednesday's session traded higher by $3 than they closed the previous trading day before slipping back by midday. LCFS programs require yearly reductions in transportation fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed these annual limits incur deficits that suppliers must offset with credits generated from the distribution to the market of approved, lower-carbon alternatives. California's program has helped spur a rush of new US renewable diesel production capacity, swamping west coast fuel markets and inundating the state's LCFS program with compliance credits. CARB reported more than 26mn metric tonnes of credits on hand by April this year — more than enough to satisfy all new deficits generated in 2023. Staff have sought through this year's rulemaking to restore incentives to more deeply decarbonize state transportation than thought possible during revisions last made in 2019. Participants have generally supported tougher targets, with some fuel suppliers warning about potential price increases and credit generators urging CARB to take a still more aggressive approach. But proposals to limit credit generation to only 20pc of the volume of fuel a supplier made from canola, soybean and now sunflower has found little public support. Environmental opponents have argued that the CARB proposals fall short of what is necessary to add protections against cropland expansion and fuel competition with food supply. Agribusiness and some fuel producers have warned the concept, proposed in August, ran counter to the premise of a neutral, carbon-focused program and against staff's own view last spring. The proposal exceeded what CARB could do without beginning a new rulemaking, some argued. CARB yesterday proposed a grace period for facilities already using the feedstocks to continue generating credits while seeking alternatives. Facilities certified to use those feedstocks before changes are formally adopted could continue using those sources until 2028, compared to a 2026 cut off proposed in August. No facilities currently supplying California have certified sunflower feedstock, and it was not clear that any were planned. "We're not aware of any proposed pathway or lifecycle analysis for sunflower oil, so that addition is just baffling," said Cory-Ann Wind, Clean Fuels Alliance America director of state regulatory affairs. "Clearly not based in science." The latest revisions include a change to how staff communicate a new, proposed automatic adjustment mechanism (AAM). The mechanism would automatically advance to tougher, future targets when credits exceed deficits by a certain amount. Supporters consider this a more responsive approach to market conditions than the years of rulemaking effort already underway. Opponents argue such a mechanism cedes important authority and responsibility from the board. Staff proposed quarterly, rather than annual, updates on whether conditions would trigger an adjustment, and to use conditions during the most recent four quarters, rather than by calendar year. Obligations and targets would continue to work on a calendar-year basis. CARB staff clarified that verifying electric vehicle charging credits would not require site visits to the thousands of charging stations eligible to participate in the program. Staff also clarified how long dairy or swine biogas harvesting projects could continue to generate credits if built this decade, with a proposed reduction in credit periods only applying to projects certified after the new rules were adopted. California formally began this rulemaking process in early January after publishing draft proposals in late December. Regulators initially proposed adjusting 2025 targets lower by 5pc for 2025 — a one-time decrease called a stepdown — to work toward a 30pc reduction target for 2030. CARB set its sights on 21 March for adoption. But staff pulled that proposal in February as hundreds of comments in response poured in. Updated language released on 12 August proposed a steeper stepdown for 2025 of 9pc while keeping the 30pc target for 2030. Public comment on yesterday's publication will continue to 16 October. By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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