Brazil's 3Q potash imports reach record 4mn t

Market: Fertilizers
07/10/24

Brazilian third-quarter imports of MOP reached a record 4.1mn t in July-September as buyers purchased the last lots for soybean crops in the first half of the quarter before turning their attention to next year's corn crop shortly afterward.

Prices of granular MOP arrivals to Brazil eroded over the three-month period to $280-290/t cfr as of 26 September, from $305-320/t cfr at the start of July, reflecting the seasonal slowdown in demand. The signing of the new Chinese and Indian MOP contracts in early July at $273/t cfr and $279-283/t cfr with 180 days' credit, respectively, also placed some downwards pressure on pricing.

Canada was the top supplier in the third quarter at 36pc, with 1.5mn t, followed closely by Russia with 35pc and 1.4mn t, GTT data show.

Uzbekistan was noted as the third top supplier to Brazil — although this is likely Belarusian product — at 13pc with 557,000t from July-September. Israel took 5pc at 225,000t, while Jordan received 4pc at 169,000t and Germany 3pc at 121,000t.

The five-year average of third-quarter imports to Brazil amounted to 3.7mnt, with potash imports steadily climbing over the period. Volumes declined in 2022 following strong panic buying earlier this year on supply uncertainty resulting from the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Brazilian MOP imports from January-September totalled 11mn t, also a record high. A further 642,000t is slated for arrival in October, according to provisional vessel line-up data, suggesting that total 2024 imports are likely to be close to the record of 13.4mn t recorded last year.

Full Argus data covering Brazilian MOP imports are available here.

By Nykole King

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07/10/24

Hurricane Milton to further disrupt phosphate output

Houston, 7 October (Argus) — The US phosphate market anticipates Hurricane Milton's Florida landfall later this week will cause further disruptions to regional production as the Tampa area continues to recover from Hurricane Helene. Hurricane Milton intensified to a category 5 storm today in US Gulf waters and is on track to make landfall around the Tampa Bay area Wednesday evening as a category 3 hurricane, the National Weather Service said. Phosphate traders expect the storm will only further tighten the market as major fertilizer producers work to overcome production losses and power outages endured during Hurricane Helene on 26 September. One phosphate trader called the incoming storm "devastating", considering it will exacerbate existing fourth quarter scarcity from ongoing outages at Nutrien's White Springs and Mosaic's Riverview facilities. The area surrounding Tampa Bay is home to three major phosphate processing facilities owned by producer Mosaic — with capacity totaling 5.7mn metric tonnes (t)/year — and the mines that feed them. Finished phosphate product is shipped across the US by rail to end users and exported by vessel from the port. Mosaic's Riverview facility in Tampa experienced water intrusion from storm surge but was expected to be back to full production sometime this week, according to the company. The producer also expected some late third quarter shipments to be pushed into the fourth quarter because of the Tampa port closure. Fellow fertilizer producer Nutrien's White Springs phosphate facility is located north of Tampa and was still assessing damage following Hurricane Helene as of today, the company said. White Springs has annual production capacity of 2mn t/year. Nutrien said it is also monitoring Hurricane Milton's path and has emergency safety measures in place for the storm. Further production disruptions are likely with the arrival of Hurricane Milton. Fertilizer production sites in the path of major storms curb operations as a precaution and then have to assess and repair damage before restarting. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula beginning Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, the NWS said. Storm surge in the Tampa Bay area could reach between 8-12ft, compared to storm surge of around 6ft from Helene. Portions of Florida can expect heavy rainfall today ahead of Milton, as well as later this week. Additionally, unlike with Helene, Mosaic's Bartow and New Wales facilities located further inland from Riverview are directly in the path of Milton on its current trajectory. If the storm stays on its current track, it will be the worst storm to hit the Tampa area in 100 years, the NWS said. Hurricane Ian damaged phosphate facilities in 2022 , causing Mosaic to reduce fourth quarter production guidance by 200,000-250,000t after the storm moved east across the Tampa Bay area. Florida ports are beginning to limit operations ahead of the storm. Port Tampa Bay initiated its Port Heavy Weather Advisory Group, which closely monitors impacts to the port and waterways in response to Hurricane Milton. Inbound and outbound vessel traffic to the port remains open and operations will continue "as long as safely possible," the port said. SeaPort Manatee is also open to vessel and landside traffic. Both ports will likely take further precautions closer to Milton's landfall. Mosaic did not respond to request for comment on the precautions it is taking for Milton. By Taylor Zavala Hurricane Milton projected path Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Fossil fuel cars phase-out comes up again in Brussels

07/10/24

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07/10/24

Fossil fuel cars phase-out comes up again in Brussels

Brussels, 7 October (Argus) — The European parliament will this week debate a "crisis" facing the EU's automotive industry which could lead to "potential" plant closures, putting discussions on already-decided CO2 standards for vehicles on the forefront. Members have faced increased efforts by industry arguing for or against speedy review of the EU's regulation on CO2 emission standards for cars and vans. The regulation sets a 2035 phase-out target for new fossil fuel cars. The European commission is expected to give a statement to parliament, but a spokesperson told Argus that any change to the EU CO2 standards for cars and light vehicles would require a legal proposal by the commission to both parliament and EU member states. The priority, the spokesperson said, is on meeting 2025 targets for fleet CO2 reductions, agreed in 2019, but the commission is aware of "different opinions" in industry. Automakers association Acea has been calling for a "substantive and holistic" review of the CO2 regulation. The transition to zero-emission vehicles must be made "more manageable", assessing real-world progress against the ambition level. On the other hand, European power industry association Eurelectric today told members of parliament that bringing forward a review of the EU's regulation on CO2 standards for cars and vans to the start of 2025 would only encourage carmakers to hold off on making lower-priced and smaller electric vehicles (EV). The next CO2 target for car fleets is set to take effect in 2025. It requires a 15pc cut in emissions for newly registered cars. Some member states view the CO2 target cuts, and phase-out of the internal combustion engine (ICE) by 2035, as contentious. The regulation was only approved after a delay to normally formal approval. And parliament's largest centre-right EPP group is calling for a revision of CO2 standards for new cars to allow for alternative zero-emission fuels beyond 2035. As a counterweight to such pressure, Austrian, Belgian, Dutch and Irish ministers today called on commission president Ursula von der Leyen to step up EU action to push decarbonisation of company vehicles, notably light duty vehicles. "We need to consider action on the demand side in order to push zero-emission vehicles sales. Corporate fleets are the EU's most important market segment," the four ministers told von der Leyen. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Indonesia’s Ni expansion via HPAL could face challenges

03/10/24

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03/10/24

Indonesia’s Ni expansion via HPAL could face challenges

Singapore, 3 October (Argus) — Indonesia is expected to continue expanding its nickel production in the coming years, especially through increasing its high-pressure acid-leaching (HPAL) capacity, but the lack of readily available sulphuric acid and proper management of the tailings waste could pose challenges to this plan. Production is expected to rise despite an anticipated surplus in the supply of nickel in the market. Sulphuric acid is used in the HPAL process to separate nickel and cobalt from nickel ore to produce mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), which is the feedstock for the downstream processing of nickel sulphate, cathode and battery. Indonesia is expected to produce 325,000-345,000t of MHP this year, up from around 269,000t of in 2023, according to market sources. But with several MHP projects planned to come online in the next few years, MHP output for the next three years is projected to treble to 800,000-900,000t, according to the country's deputy minister for the co-ordinating ministry for maritime and investment affairs Septian Hario Seto on 2 October at a metal event in London. As this would require a lot more nickel ore and sulphuric acid, there are concerns that the availability of limonite ore could deplete as fast as the saprolite ore supply, which is mainly used for nickel pig iron and matte production. There were also discussions that the Indonesian government will convene with nickel market participants to discuss about the supply situation of limonite ore. There are currently four HPAL facilities operating in Indonesia. This includes Huayou's Huayue and Huafei projects , GEM's QMB project and Lygend's HPAL project. Others were also concerned that the availability of sulphuric acid could be a limiting factor to Indonesia's rapid expansion of HPAL production, as sulphuric acid demand from Indonesian HPAL projects is expected to reach 7.12mn t in 2025, almost 40pc increase from this year's demand at 5.17mn t, according to Argus estimates. Indonesia has been importing sulphuric acid from mainly China and South Korea to meet the growing demand for its production units at Obi Island and Sulawesi. But a ramp-up in sulphur-burning operations has pushed several MHP producers like Halmahera Persada Lygend to switch to buying lower-cost sulphur instead. For most sulphur burners, 1t of sulphur produces around 3t of sulphuric acid. The startup of Freeport McMoran's Manyar smelter in Java integrated industrial and port estate in East Java's Gresik, coupled with mining firm Amman Mineral Nusa Tenggara's (AMNT) copper smelter in the West Sumbawa regency of Nusa Tenggara province, is also expected to alleviate some supply concerns, with the two expected to add at least 3mn t/yr of acid capacity by the end of 2025. Proper disposal of tailings waste could pose another challenge to Indonesia's planned HPAL expansion, particularly with increasing scrutiny on the environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards by Indonesia's mining industry. The HPAL process generates a large volume of tailings, with energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie estimating an output of 1.4-1.6t of waste from every 1t of nickel produced through HPAL. There are three common ways to dispose tailings waste – tailings dam, deep sea tailings and dry stacking. Dry stacking is more widely used because it is considered as the more sustainable option. But dry stacking also comes with its own environmental and biodiversity risks, as Indonesia's seasonal wet weather and seismic activity of the site could be a problem for waste storage. To ensure a smooth expansion in HPAL production, it is crucial for Indonesia to find ways to secure the necessary sulphuric acid supplies and to adopt appropriate methods for tailings waste disposal. By Sheih Li Wong and Deon Ngee Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Offers total 2.57mn t of urea in RCF tender: Update 2

03/10/24

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03/10/24

Offers total 2.57mn t of urea in RCF tender: Update 2

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Australia’s Origin to exit Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub

03/10/24

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