IEA raises Australian renewable power capacity forecast

Market: Electricity, Emissions, Hydrogen
09/10/24

Australia is expected to add more than 52GW of renewable power capacity over 2024-30, with 57pc of the country's electricity generation coming from renewable sources in 2030, Paris-based energy watchdog the IEA announced today.

The forecast revision in the IEA's Renewables 2024 report released on 9 October is 2pc higher than the 2023 estimate, it said, although the previous annual report included forecasts up to 2028, with a 49pc renewable share expected for that year. The country's share of renewables in 2023 was around 34pc, according to the IEA.

Australia is expected to add around 52.2GW of new capacity between 2024-30 under the IEA's main case scenario, led by utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) at 18.6GW, onshore wind at 15.3GW and distributed solar PV at 13.8GW. Hydropower capacity additions are forecast to reach 2.3GW over that period, while renewables dedicated to hydrogen production total 2.2GW.

The IEA expects additions to gradually rise in the coming years, from 5.4GW in 2024 and 5.5GW in 2025 to 6GW in 2026, 6.9GW in 2027 and 8GW in 2028. Additions would peak in 2029 at 11.5GW and fall back to 9GW in 2030.

Australia is targeting an 82pc share of renewable sources in nationwide electricity generation by 2030, with the federal government expanding its Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) and launching the first major 6GW tender in May. Tenders will run every six months until 2026-27 for a total of 32GW, consisting of 23GW of renewables — solar, wind and hydro — and 9GW of dispatchable capacity such as pumped hydro and grid-scale batteries, all to be in operation by 2030.

Apart from the CIS scheme, corporate demand for renewable energy — mostly through power purchase agreements — and continued growth in distributed solar PV will contribute to the increase in renewable capacity in Australia, stated the IEA.

Challenges for utility-scale additions include curtailment, which remains high because of grid constraints, and lengthy connection wait times, the IEA said, although new rules could ease these delays.

"Should some or all of these issues be addressed, our accelerated case indicates that growth could be nearly 20pc higher," it said, noting that new renewable capacity could reach nearly 63GW over 2024-30 in that instance.

By Juan Weik

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