Iran's crude exports have slowed down dramatically this month as the country braces for a possible strike on its oil facilities in retaliation for its large-scale missile attack against Israel on 1 October.
Although US president Joe Biden has suggested Israel should think about an alternative response, potential strikes on Iranian oil facilities have been up for discussion and the Israeli government appears to be still weighing up its options.
In the meantime, there has been a noticeable drop off in Iranian exports. Crude loadings from Iran only averaged about 600,000 b/d in the first 10 days of October, around a third of the amount it has exported in the past few months, according to Armen Azizian, senior oil risk analyst at trade analytics firm Vortexa.
"The first 10 days has been very slow compared to what we usually see," Azizian said. "Normally, over this period, we see an average of 5-8 tankers load ꟷ a mix of VLCCs and Suezmaxes. But so far, we have only seen just 3-4 load."
A VLCC typically carries 1.9mn-2.2mn bl, while a Suezmax can carry 800,000-1mn bl.
Of the three VLCCs that have loaded this month, two did so at Iran's Kharg Island terminal in the Mideast Gulf and the third co-loaded between Kharg Island and the Soroush terminal, also in the Mideast Gulf. An Aframax also loaded at Kharg this month but it is a tanker that typically engages in domestic trade. The Kharg terminal is Iran's largest and most important by some distance, handling more than 90pc of Iranian crude and condensate exports.
All of the vessels that have loaded at Iranian terminals this month have been sanctioned. "It seems like the operators of the non-sanctioned tankers are being more cautious," Azizan said. "The thinking being that the value of the sanctioned tankers is so low anyway, that they are more worth taking a risk with."
The slowdown in exports coincides with Iran moving many of its empty tankers away from Kharg Island. "It was likely done as a precaution, in the event of an Israeli retaliation," said Homayoun Falakshahi, senior oil analyst at trade analytics firm Kpler.
Iran's crude exports have been rising in recent years, notably since the start of 2023. Vortexa puts them s at 1.7mn b/d in July-September, while Kpler's estimate is slightly higher at 1.75mn b/d.
September was a particularly strong month — 1.83mn b/d according to Kpler and 1.75mn b/d according to Vortexa. Kpler's September estimate is the highest since the fourth quarter of 2018 and Vortexa's is just 50,000 b/d short of a six-year high of 1.8mn b/d in June.
This month's exports will be much lower. Even if Iran's loading activities were to return to normal for the rest of October, it would struggle to breach the 1.35mn b/d mark for the full month, a level it has surpassed consistently since the fourth quarter of last year.
