India’s lubricant consumption rises in September

Market: Oil products
15/10/24

India's lubricant consumption rose by 7.1pc on the year and by 2.5pc on the month to 364,000t in September, according to provisional oil ministry data.

This likely came as demand picked up, especially since the monsoon seasonal lull ended in September. Lubricant consumption rose for two consecutive months in September, with consumption previously at its lowest level this year in July.

Lubricant consumption rose by 12pc between January to September to 3.4mn t, outpacing demand in the same period last year, supported by economic growth.

India's base oil import prices in September were largely lower for most grades, pressured by ample supply and weakness in crude and gasoil prices. But heavy-grade prices were supported because of tight supply. Group II N150 averaged at $810/t in September, a decrease of 3pc from a month earlier. Group II N500 averaged at $991/t cfr India in September, edging up around 1pc from the previous month.

By Chng Li Li

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

02/01/25

Viewpoint: Road auctions may buoy Brazil asphalt demand

Sao Paulo, 2 January (Argus) — Demand for asphalt in Brazil is expected to remain elevated in 2025, boosted by a number of highway projects planned to be tendered this year. The Ministry of Transportation expects to seek tenders in 15 auctions this year . Overall, the Brazilian Association of Highway Concessionaires looks for 3,000km worth of roadway projects to be awarded at the federal level, along with another 4,000km at the state level. That is up from 10 auctions for projects covering 4,000km of paving work at the federal and state level last year. This anticipation of such an active paving year is upending the conventional wisdom that a year without elections means less asphalt demand. Typically, paving work on public streets and highways is more concentrated during election years, when mayors and governors focus their public budgets on infrastructure work to appease voters. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's administration has asked lawmakers to allocate R$12.8bn for the National Department of Transportation Infrastructure in 2025, up by nearly R$240mn from the amount approved for 2024. The National Congress is expected to take up the annual budget law in February, after the parliamentary recess, and may make considerable changes. State-controlled Petrobras expects to sell around 2.7mn t of asphalt in 2025, or 1pc more than its 2024 projections. This past year was record-breaking for the Brazilian asphalt market, with more than 2.76mn tons of asphalt sold through October, according to oil regulator ANP. This was 10pc more than what was sold in the same period in 2023, in a year in which asphalt demand reached its highest level since 2014. Asphalt imports increased in 2024 as a result. Brazil's asphalt sales exceeded local production by an average of 18pc, boosting the purchase of imported material earlier in the year. US Gulf coast exports to Brazil reached an all-time high in October , according to data from Kpler. During the first 11 months of 2024, Brazil imported 300mn t of asphalt, also primarily from the US Gulf. By Julio Viana Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

Viewpoint: European jet may struggle to find support

02/01/25

News

02/01/25

Viewpoint: European jet may struggle to find support

London, 2 January (Argus) — European jet fuel prices weakened over the course of 2024, and support is difficult to see in the coming year. Outright jet fuel values in Europe averaged $802/t between January and November, with the highest prices between February and April. In the second half of 2024 prices fell, to average $721.50/t in November, down by almost 18pc from January and even more compared with the November 2023 average of $921.50/t. In December, values for delivered jet fuel cargoes often dropped to below $700/t ( see graph ). Jet fuel supply to Europe ramped up in 2024, and was consistently strong throughout the year . This peaked in August-September, coinciding with the fall in prices. Large developments in Middle Eastern refinery capacity caused the increases in supply. Refining margins for jet fuel in Europe are likely to remain underwhelming. Argus Consulting estimates jet fuel premiums to North Sea Dated to average around $13/bl in 2025, compared with $20.53/bl in the first 11 months of 2024 and $29.30/bl in 2023. Weaker overall refining margins have led to capacity closure plans in 2025, so imports will probably compose a greater proportion of European jet fuel supply in the coming years. Eurostat data for January-July 2024 show a 0.7pc year on year rise in EU jet fuel demand. Argus Consulting calculates European jet fuel demand was 1.5pc up on the year for all of 2024. Flights across the Eurocontrol network totalled more than 9.44mn in January-November, higher by more than 10pc from the same period in 2023. Most areas in Europe have now equalled or surpassed pre-pandemic flight levels. Yet strong supply seems to have outstripped rising demand in 2024, and market participants expect the same in 2025 even though Middle East and Indian refiners now say arbitrage economics to Europe are closed . With northwest European jet fuel holding its narrowest premium to Singaporean jet fuel in three years, more jet has been shipped east in recent months. Since late November, Singaporean values have even surpassed those in Europe. But market participants do not expect serious tightness in European supply. Even air traffic growth may not proportionally raise European jet fuel demand in the coming year, as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates now require at least 2pc blending in the EU and UK, as of 1 January. European SAF prices fell by more than 30pc between January and November ( see graph ), as SAF supply and refining capacity grew ahead of the mandate. Increasing mandates in the coming years may weigh further on fossil jet demand. Crucially, however, suppliers only need to include 2pc SAF in all jet fuel over the course of the year, not immediately. This means many European suppliers will continue to use 100pc fossil jet fuel until the early part of 2025 at least. Some market participants have confirmed they intend to do this, while the relevant SAF infrastructure, logistics and administration are finalised. Fossil jet fuel balances may therefore be little changed early in 2025 — although if suppliers blend less than 2pc SAF at first, they would need to blend more than that later in the year, using accordingly less fossil jet at that point. Increasing fuel efficiency of aircraft has been pressuring European jet fuel demand. But Boeing and Airbus are heavily delayed in their delivery of newer, fuel-efficient aircraft. Boeing had 4,750 unfulfilled orders of its 737 MAX aircraft as of late October, while Airbus lowered its commercial aircraft delivery targets earlier this year . Aviation analytics firm OAG has forecast supply of aircraft will remain tight until at least 2026. This led fuel efficiency in Europe to improve by only 1.1pc in 2024 compared with 2023, according to Argus Consulting . By Amaar Khan Jet/kerosine NWE cif $/t RED SAF fob ARA $/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Viewpoint: USGC diesel exports may get European boost

02/01/25

News

02/01/25

Viewpoint: USGC diesel exports may get European boost

Houston, 2 January (Argus) — US Gulf coast (USGC) diesel exports were on pace to rise in 2024, and growing demand from Europe could sustain the trend into 2025 as Brazil demand may falter. US Gulf coast diesel exports rose to an estimated 242mn bl, or 661,000 b/d in 2024, up by 9.5pc from 2023, according to oil analytics firm Vortexa. Figures are still subject to revisions as more information about cargoes and destinations in the final weeks of December become known. Exports strengthened in the second half of 2024 despite headwinds. From July through December, exports rose to 728,000 b/d, up from 593,000 b/d in the first half of the year. Europe was the top destination for US Gulf coast diesel exports in 2024, receiving 216,000 b/d, or 33pc, of the region's exports, up from 135,000 b/d, or 22pc, in 2023. South America was the second biggest destination for US Gulf coast diesel exports in 2024, even as the continent's share fell to 29pc from 35.5pc in 2023. Central America and Mexico received 24pc of US Gulf coast diesel exports in 2024. US Gulf coast diesel exports to Mexico dropped to 103,000 b/d during the second half of the year, down by 21pc from the first half of 2024, according to Vortexa. Mexico's energy policies aim to drive the country closer to energy independence, and Pemex's new 340,000 b/d Dos Bocas refinery is one tool to achieve that goal. The refinery was scheduled to fully be on line in 2024 but operated only intermittently during the year. It is expected to run more steadily in the first quarter 2025, according to market sources. This could further reduce shipments from the US Gulf coast to Mexico. But demand in other markets may mitigate this loss. While the total volume of diesel shipped to Mexico, Central and South America dropped by 12.2pc in 2024, diesel exports to the regions are expected to remain resilient in 2025, despite a traditional slowdown in the first two months of the year. Typically, US Gulf coast diesel exports in January and February slow as winter weather clips European demand while South American demand drops after the main summer planting season concludes and as summer holidays reduce the number of trucks on the road. Exports will likely pick up in March and continue to increase as the soybean harvest in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay boosts demand. Warmer weather in Europe will also increase demand as driving increases while European refiners undergo maintenance turnarounds in March and April. EU diesel demand was strong in 2024 even as the energy transition advances renewable diesel and cleaner fuel sources. Among newly registered heavy trucks in the EU, 96.6pc run on diesel and 67pc of buses run on diesel, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association. European lawmakers plan to phase out sales of new diesel trucks and cars by 2040 and 2035, respectively, delayed from a prior 2030 deadline. This will ensure demand remains stable, if not higher, for 2025. Russia's lower-priced diesel exports fulfilled Brazil's external needs for diesel in the first half of 2024. But in June, Russian refiners were unable to produce enough diesel to meet the country's demand, boosting US Gulf coast exports to Brazil to 43,000 b/d in the second half of the year, almost five times higher than the first half. Still, total US Gulf coast export volumes to Brazil for full-year 2024 were down by half when compared with 2023, as Russian exports to Brazil grew by 17pc to 150,000 b/d in 2024. Slowing growth in Brazil is also likely to curb diesel demand next year. Brazil's central bank forecasts economic growth to slow to 2pc in 2025 from 3.5pc in 2024 on expectations for higher borrowing costs, as the depreciation of the real currency accelerated at the end of the year. Even so, US Gulf coast exporters will be poised to fill whatever demand Brazil can offer next year. Going into the new year, US Gulf coast refiners seeking to export diesel will face challenges, but enough demand remains to keep volumes on track or even higher than 2024 levels. By Carrie Carter Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Viewpoint: North American BZ, SM output to dip in 2025

02/01/25

News

02/01/25

Viewpoint: North American BZ, SM output to dip in 2025

Houston, 2 January (Argus) — North American benzene (BZ) and derivative styrene monomer (SM) production and operating rates may decline in 2025 as production costs climb. SM and derivative output will likely see a drop due to the permanent closure of a SM plant in Sarnia and an acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) plant in Ohio. In 2024, SM operating rates averaged about 71-72pc of capacity, up by 1-2 percentage points from the year prior, according to Argus data. In 2025, operating rates are expected to pull back closer to 70pc due to lackluster underlying demand, offsetting the impact of the two plant closures. Many SM producers on the US Gulf coast are entering 2025 at reduced rates due to high variable production cash costs against the SM spot price. The BZ contract price and higher ethylene prices recently pushed up production costs for SM producers. A heavy upstream ethylene cracker turnaround season in early 2025 will keep derivative SM production costs elevated in Louisiana, stifling motivation for some downstream SM operators to run at normal rates. Gulf coast BZ prices typically fall when SM demand is weak. But imports from Asia are projected to decline, leading to tighter supply in North America that could keep BZ prices elevated. BZ imports from Asia are expected to decline in 2025 because of fewer arbitrage opportunities, as Asia and US BZ prices are expected to remain near parity in the first half of the year. The import arbitrage from South Korea to the Gulf coast was closed for much of the fourth quarter of 2024. Prices in Asia have garnered support because of demand from China for BZ and derivatives, as well as from aromatics production costs in the region that have increased alongside higher naphtha prices. In January-October 2024, over 60pc of US BZ imports originated from northeast Asia, according to Global Trade Tracker data. Losing any portion of those imports typically tightens the US market and drives up domestic demand for BZ. But tighter BZ supply due to lower imports may be mitigated by SM producers, if they continue to run at reduced rates in 2025. The US Gulf coast is around 100,000 metric tonnes (t) net short monthly on BZ, but market sources say the soft SM demand outlook for 2025 will cut US BZ import needs almost in half. Despite fewer BZ imports to North America, reduced SM consumption could hamper run rates for BZ production from selective toluene disproportionation (STDP) unit operators. The biggest obstacle for STDP operators in 2025 will like be paraxylene (PX) demand. Since STDP units produce BZ alongside PX, there needs to be domestic demand for PX. But demand has been weak due to PX imports and derivative polyethylene terephthalate (PET). STDP operations increased at the end 2025 after running at at minimum rates or being idled since 2022. This came as BZ prices consistently eclipsed feedstock toluene prices. The BZ to feedstock nitration-grade toluene spread averaged 30.5¢/USG in 2024 and the BZ to feedstock commercial-grade toluene (CGT) spread averaged 49.25¢/USG, according to Argus data. This means that for much of the year STDP operators could justify running units at higher rates to produce more BZ and PX. But another challenge to consider on STDP run rates in 2025 is the value of toluene for gasoline blending compared to its value for chemical production. In 2022 and 2023, the toluene value into octanes was higher than going into an STDP for BZ and PX production. Feedstock toluene imports are poised to fall in 2025, a factor that would narrow STDP margins and further hamper on-purpose benzene production in the US in 2025. By Jake Caldwell Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Pakistan's NRL issues tender to sell January bitumen

02/01/25

News

02/01/25

Pakistan's NRL issues tender to sell January bitumen

Singapore, 2 January (Argus) — Pakistani refiner NRL is offering bulk and drummed bitumen cargoes totalling 8,000t for loading over January, in their latest export tender. The refiner is seeking fixed price bids on a fob Karachi basis for 2,000t of pen 80/100 drummed bitumen cargo and 6,000t of pen 60/70 bulk bitumen cargo. The drummed cargo tender is expected to be closed on 9 January and loaded within 30 days from the date of award, while the bulk cargo tender will close on 6 January, sources involved with the tender process said. The refiner had awarded its December-loading cargo to Switzerland-based trading firm Element Alpha, after withdrawing two previous tenders for loading over October and November. Pakistani cargoes are typically sought by international bitumen traders for delivery into South Africa. By Sathya Narayanan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more