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Tax credit delay risks growth of low-CO2 fuels

  • Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Emissions, Hydrogen, Oil products
  • 15/10/24

A new US tax credit for low-carbon fuels will likely begin next year without final guidance on how to qualify, leaving refiners, feedstock suppliers, and fuel buyers in a holding pattern.

The US Treasury Department this month pledged to finalize guidance around some Inflation Reduction Act tax credits before President Joe Biden leaves office but conspicuously omitted the climate law's "45Z" incentive for clean fuels from its list of priorities. Kicking off in January and lasting through 2027, the credit requires road and aviation fuels to meet an initial carbon intensity threshold and then ups the subsidy as the fuel's emissions fall.

The transition to 45Z was always expected to reshape biofuel markets, shifting benefits from blenders to producers and encouraging the use of lower-carbon waste feedstocks, like used cooking oil. And the biofuels industry is used to uncertainty, including lapsed tax credits and retroactive blend mandates.

But some in the market say this time is unique, in part because of how different the 45Z credit will be from prior federal incentives. While the credit currently in effect offers $1/USG across the board for biomass-based diesel, for example, it is unclear how much of a credit a gallon of fuel would earn next year since factors like greenhouse gas emissions for various farm practices, feedstocks, and production pathways are now part of the administration's calculations.

This delay in issuing guidance has ground to a halt talks around first quarter contracts, which are often hashed out months in advance. Renewable Biofuels chief executive Mike Reed told Argus that his company's Port Neches, Texas, facility — the largest biodiesel plant in the US with a capacity of 180mn USG/yr — has not signed any fuel offtake contracts past the end of the year or any feedstock contracts past November and will idle early next year absent supportive policy signals. Biodiesel traders elsewhere have reported similar challenges.

Across the supply chain, the lack of clarity has made it hard to invest. While Biden officials have stressed that domestic agriculture has a role to play in addressing climate change, farmers and oilseed processors have little sense of what "climate-smart" farm practices Treasury will reward. Feedstock deals could slow as early as December, market participants say, because of the risk of shipments arriving late.

Slowing alt fuel growth

Recent growth in US alternative fuel production could lose momentum because of the delayed guidance. The Energy Information Administration last forecast that the US would produce 230,000 b/d of renewable diesel in 2025, up from 2024 but still 22pc below the agency's initial outlook in January. The agency also sees US biodiesel production falling next year to 103,000 b/d, its lowest level since 2016.

The lack of guidance is "going to begin raising the price of fuel simply because it is resulting in fewer gallons of biofuel available," said David Fialkov, executive vice president of government affairs for the National Association of Truck Stop Operators.

And if policy uncertainty is already hurting established fuels like biodiesel and renewable diesel, impacts on more speculative but lower-carbon pathways — such as synthetic SAF produced from clean hydrogen — are potentially substantial. An Argus database of SAF refineries sees 810mn USG/yr of announced US SAF production by 2030 from more advanced pathways like gas-to-liquids and power-to-liquids, though the viability of those plants will hinge on policy.

The delay in getting guidance is "challenging because it's postponing investment decisions, and that ties up money and ultimately results in people perhaps looking elsewhere," said Jonathan Lewis, director of transportation decarbonization at the climate think-tank Clean Air Task Force.

Tough process, ample delays

Regulators have a difficult balancing act, needing to write rules that are simultaneously detailed, legally durable, and broadly acceptable to the diverse interests that back clean fuel incentives — an unsteady coalition of refiners, agribusinesses, fuel buyers like airlines, and some environmental groups. But Biden officials also have reason to act quickly, given the threat next year of Republicans repealing the Inflation Reduction Act or presidential nominee Donald Trump using the power of federal agencies to limit the law's reach.

US agriculture secretary Tom Vilsack expressed confidence last month that his agency will release a regulation quantifying the climate benefits of certain agricultural practices before Biden leaves office, which would then inform Treasury's efforts. Treasury officials also said this month they are still "actively" working on issuing guidance around 45Z.

If Treasury manages to issue guidance, even retroactively, that meets the many different goals, there could be more support for Congress to extend the credit. The fact that 45Z expires after 2027 is otherwise seen as a barrier to meeting US climate goals and scaling up clean fuel production.

But rushing forward with half-formed policy guidance can itself create more problems later.

"Moving quickly toward a policy that sends the wrong signals is going to ultimately be more damaging for the viability of this industry than getting something out the door that needs to be fixed," said the Clean Air Task Force's Lewis.


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28/03/25

ISCC aware EU mulling certification recognition: Update

ISCC aware EU mulling certification recognition: Update

Adds comment from the European Commission London, 28 March (Argus) — The ISCC, an international certification system for sustainability, said today that it is aware of discussions in an EU committee about future recognition of its certification for waste-based biofuels. It said there is no legal basis for any planned measures. Industry participants said yesterday that the EU Committee on Sustainability of Biofuels, Bioliquids, and Biomass Fuels is drafting implementing regulations that would include a two-and-a-half year pause to obligatory acceptance of ISCC EU certification for waste-based biofuels. "This action is said to be subject to further legal scrutiny and will need approval by member states," the ISCC said. Currently, member states accept EU-recognised voluntary scheme certification as proof that fuel or feedstocks are compliant with the bloc's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) sustainability criteria. Market participants told Argus that discussions have centred around giving individual countries more choice. "Other voluntary schemes would not be able to fill the gap. The measure would be a severe blow to the entire market for waste-based biofuels and would seriously jeopardise the ability of the obligated parties to comply with blending mandates," the ISCC said. The ISCC has been singled out in a discriminatory way and has supported European Commission and member states' investigations into alleged fraud, it said. "We are more than surprised by this step […and] are unable to see the rationale of the planned measure, which seems ad hoc and baseless," it added. Secretary-general of the European Biodiesel Board (EBB) Xavier Noyon told Argus that, if confirmed, the suspension would affect thousands of operators. "At this time, member states are refusing to comment, and we call on the commission to urgently clarify any decisions of this nature that are on the table," he said. The EBB published its own proposed revision to the RED implementing legislation last month, which expanded the supervisory power of member states over voluntary schemes and certification bodies. The European Commission confirmed that the committee met on 26 March to discuss sustainable certification, promotion of biofuels, avoidance of double counting, and alleged fraud. "We are still working on our examination of this alleged fraud in biodiesel imports from China," said commission energy spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen. But the commission has not taken any decision yet and cannot allude to "possible" scenarios, she said. By John Houghton-Brown, Simone Burgin and Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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UK EAC to explore airport expansion, net zero conflict


28/03/25
News
28/03/25

UK EAC to explore airport expansion, net zero conflict

London, 28 March (Argus) — UK parliament's cross-party environmental audit committee (EAC) has begun an inquiry into whether the country's airport capacity expansion could be achieved in line with its climate and environment targets. "The aviation sector is a major contributor to the UK's carbon emissions, and on the face of it, any expansion in the sector will make net zero even more elusive," EAC chair Toby Perkins said. Any expansions must meet strict climate and environment commitments, the UK government has said. The government in January expressed support for a third runway at London's Heathrow airport — the country's largest. UK transport minister Heidi Alexander said in February that she was "minded to approve" an expansion at London's Gatwick airport, ahead of a final decision in October. The expansion would involve Gatwick making its northern runway operational. It is currently only used as a back-up option. The government is also "contemplating decisions on airport expansion projects at London Luton… and on the reopening of Doncaster Sheffield," Perkins said. "It is possible — but very difficult — for the airport expansion programme to be consistent with environmental goals," Perkins said. "We look forward to exploring how the government believes this can be achieved." The UK has a legally-binding target of net zero emissions by 2050. Its carbon budgets — a cap on emissions over a certain period — are also legally binding. The government must this year set levels for the UK's seventh carbon budget , which will cover the period 2038-42. The committee has invited written submissions on the possible airport expansions and net zero, with a deadline of 24 April. It will report in the autumn. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US H2 projects stall, incentives fall short: Technip


28/03/25
News
28/03/25

US H2 projects stall, incentives fall short: Technip

London, 28 March (Argus) — Many US hydrogen project developers have paused or cancelled plans after finding costs were too high and government incentives were insufficient, even before President Donald Trump's return to the White House added uncertainty, Paris-listed contractor Technip Energies has said. Developers rushed to hire contractors for project studies in 2022-23 in a wave of optimism after the US announced tax credits for hydrogen production , but many projects were shelved or suspended between the end of 2023 and mid-2024. This came as companies realised the true cost of many items not limited to CO2 capture, hydrogen storage, and hydrogen liquefaction, Technip Energies' director Randy Kessler said. Multiple developers hired Technip for feasibility studies and engineering designs so it witnessed the drop-off in project plans first hand, Kessler said. Renewable hydrogen projects faced the most challenges, but gas-based projects with carbon capture and storage (CCS) "did not fare too well either", Kessler said. "Nearly all" renewable hydrogen projects were suspended when true capital and operating costs became known, especially compared with conventional 'grey' hydrogen, Kessler said. "Economics generally prevail in the long run, and at 5-8 times the cost of grey H2 production, most big players and project developers found out the incentives did not cover the gap," he said. Most of Technip Energies' clients pursuing CCS-enabled projects eventually asked for estimates for conventional grey hydrogen plants, with "pre-investment" to add CO2 capture units in the future, Kessler said. Washington made matters worse for developers with "confusing" incentives and delays in finalising eligibility rules for the tax credits, which it only settled on in early 2025 , just weeks before the change in administration. "The people who made money were the consultants who told people what it all meant," Kessler said. The late-2024 US election became both an "issue" and an "an excuse" for developers to explain the lack of progress, Kessler said. Many US firms complained that political uncertainty during the election period hampered their business decisions. Politically powerful energy companies lobbying Washington for "appropriate levels of incentives to cover the gap" or relaxing tax credit rules to lower project costs would be the most likely way to revive the sector, Kessler said. The US could consider setting mandates, but this is unlikely unless there is "more global buy-in", he said. Few regions, aside from the EU, have proposed mandates, and even there they have not been firmly implemented. But US firms and industrial groups are focusing lobbying efforts on protecting the hydrogen tax credits rather than quibbling over the rules, US sources said. The return of Trump to the White House made the future of the tax credits less certain because of his preference for boosting US fossil fuel output over investing in clean energy. Another contracting firm, Black & Veatch, recently said it was unsurprised to see many speculative projects fall by the wayside, and that the best route forward is better quality and modestly-sized projects with clear offtakers. By Aidan Lea Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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ISCC aware of EU talks on certification recognition


28/03/25
News
28/03/25

ISCC aware of EU talks on certification recognition

London, 28 March (Argus) — The ISCC, an international certification system for sustainability, said today that it is aware of discussions in an EU committee about future recognition of its certification for waste-based biofuels. It said there is no legal basis for any planned measures. Industry participants said yesterday that the EU Committee on Sustainability of Biofuels, Bioliquids, and Biomass Fuels is drafting implementing regulations that would include a two-and-a-half year pause to obligatory acceptance of ISCC EU certification for waste-based biofuels. "This action is said to be subject to further legal scrutiny and will need approval by member states," the ISCC said. Currently, member states accept EU-recognised voluntary scheme certification as proof that fuel or feedstocks are compliant with the bloc's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) sustainability criteria. There has been no official statement from the European Commission but market participants told Argus that discussions have centred around giving individual countries more choice. "Other voluntary schemes would not be able to fill the gap. The measure would be a severe blow to the entire market for waste-based biofuels and would seriously jeopardise the ability of the obligated parties to comply with blending mandates," the ISCC said. The ISCC has been singled out in a discriminatory way and has supported European Commission and member states' investigations into alleged fraud, it said. "We are more than surprised by this step […and] are unable to see the rationale of the planned measure, which seems ad hoc and baseless," it added. Secretary-general of the European Biodiesel Board (EBB) Xavier Noyon told Argus that, if confirmed, the suspension would affect thousands of operators. "At this time, member states are refusing to comment, and we call on the commission to urgently clarify any decisions of this nature that are on the table," he said. The EBB published its own proposed revision to the RED implementing legislation last month, which expanded the supervisory power of member states over voluntary schemes and certification bodies. By John Houghton-Brown and Simone Burgin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australia’s Boral set to stay below emissions baseline


28/03/25
News
28/03/25

Australia’s Boral set to stay below emissions baseline

Sydney, 28 March (Argus) — Australian building materials firm Boral expects to remain below its emissions baseline under the safeguard mechanism, it said today as it announced further decarbonisation investments for its flagship cement manufacturing operations. Boral is "on track" to remain below the baseline safeguard mechanism requirements, chief executive officer Vik Bansal said on 28 March. This is because of the new kiln feed optimisation project and previous investments in decarbonisation projects, he noted. Boral's Berrima cement plant in New South Wales (NSW) state will invest in a new cement kiln infrastructure project that will reduce the facility's scope 1 emissions by up to 100,000 t/yr of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) from 2028, it said on 28 March. The project was awarded A$24.5mn ($15.4mn) under the Australian federal government's A$1.9bn Powering the Regions Fund (PRF). Grants will come from the PRF's A$600mn Safeguard Transformation Stream, aimed at decarbonisation projects at heavy industry facilities covered under the safeguard mechanism. The Berrima plant — Boral's only facility under the mechanism — reported 979,872t of CO2e in the July 2022-June 2023 compliance year, below its baseline of 1.075mn t of CO2e. The facility will be eligible to receive safeguard mechanism credits (SMCs) from the July 2023-June 2024 year onwards for any emissions below the baseline. The company also upgraded its carbon-reduction technology at Berrima last year, reducing fuel-based emissions through the use of alternative fuels at the kiln. The new kiln feed optimisation project will lead to a reduction in the so-called process emissions — the largest and hardest-to-abate emissions source in cement manufacturing. Approximately 35pc of Berrima's scope 1 emissions originate from fuel combustion, while the remaining 65pc are process emissions, according to the company. Australia's Clean Energy Regulator (CER) will publish 2023-24 safeguard data by 15 April . By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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