Investment funds’ net long position on Ice TTF jumps

Market: Natural gas
31/10/24

Investment funds' net long position on the Intercontinental Exchange (Ice) TTF jumped by nearly 34TWh on 18-25 October, a week in which the Argus' TTF front-month price rose by 11pc.

The net long position had reached a record high of more than 268TWh in the week ending 30 August, revised data show, before a significant reduction to a recent low of 192TWh by 20 September. Investment funds' net position then remained roughly unchanged over the following weeks. But there was a sharp increase to nearly 236TWh in the week ending 25 October, according to Ice's latest data (see graph). This was driven by a 36TWh increase in long positions that was only partly offset by a 2TWh increase in shorts.

TTF prices across the curve rose significantly that week, with the Argus TTF front-month contract up by 11pc and similarly large moves for the first-quarter 2025 and summer 2025 contracts. The calendar 2025 price was also up by 9pc (see table).

Increased geopolitical risks caused by rising tensions in the Middle East may have encouraged investment firms to boost their net long positions over that week, as Israel prepared for a retaliatory strike on Iran that came on 26 October. There was also a switch to net storage withdrawals across the EU on 22-25 October as a result of colder weather, which boosted demand and drew down stocks.

Europe's gas market has lost some of its flexibility in recent years, following the loss of most Russian pipeline gas and the resulting higher reliance on LNG, which takes much longer to be physically delivered. This has increased price volatility, as small changes to the gas balance such as minor production constraints in Norway or brief cold snaps are no longer able to be quickly compensated for, which can then drive large price swings. Investment funds, which make most of their money on volatility in the market, amplify these price movements, contributing to the frequent sudden price spikes as fundamentals change.

Such a large net long position suggests investment funds expect a tight European gas balance this winter. Record-low freight rates have brought the cost of shipping US LNG to Asia closer to the cost of the shorter US-Europe route, meaning European prices have to rise sufficiently high enough to offset this and close the inter-basin arbitrage again in order to attract uncommitted cargoes. At the same time, Egypt — which became a net LNG importer in May — bought 20 LNG cargoes last month and could seek a similar number of cargoes in the first quarter of next year, further tightening the availability of LNG imports in Europe. Market participants are also concerned about a potential delay to the commissioning of the 27.2mn t/yr Plaquemines terminal in Louisiana, although there has yet to be any confirmation of a change to the timeline. The facility is scheduled to start exports by the end of this year, developer Venture Global said earlier this month.

Unlike investment funds, the other two major categories of market participants on Ice — commercial undertakings and investment/credit firms — boosted their net short positions by a combined 33TWh, nearly fully offsetting the net long increase from investment funds. Commercial undertakings, defined as companies with retail portfolios, raised their long and short positions in risk reduction contracts, with longs growing by about 8TWh and shorts by a larger 20TWh.

Commercial undertakings' gross short position was nearly 746TWh on 25 October, the highest of any date since December 2021, as firms looked to hedge a significant physical long position of gas in storage. EU storage sites were more than 95pc full as of the morning of 30 October, below 99pc on the same date last year but still well above the 2019-21 average of 90pc. But their net short position is still 163TWh, below the three-year high of nearly 182TWh on 30 August.

By Brendan A'Hearn

Argus TTF prices, 18-25 Oct							€/MWh
	TTF Nov	TTF Dec	TTF Q125	TTF Sum 25	TTF Win 25	TTF Cal 25	TTF Cal 26

18-Oct	39.16	39.60	39.91	37.97	38.70	38.60	34.05
25-Oct	43.47	43.69	43.77	41.36	41.51	41.98	35.91
% change	11.0	10.3	9.7	8.9	7.3	8.8	5.5
— Argus

Net positions on ICE TTF TWh

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