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US railroad-labor contract talks heat up

  • Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Coal, Coking coal, Crude oil, Fertilizers, Metals, Oil products, Petrochemicals, Petroleum coke
  • 04/11/24

Negotiations to amend US rail labor contracts are becoming increasingly complicated as railroads split on negotiating tactics, potentially stalling operations at some carriers.

The multiple negotiating pathways are reigniting fears of 2022, when some unions agreed to new contracts and others were on the verge of striking before President Joe Biden ordered them back to work. Shippers feared freight delays if strikes occurred.

This round, two railroads are independently negotiating with unions. Most of the Class I railroads have traditionally used the National Carriers' Conference Committee to jointly negotiate contracts with the nation's largest labor unions.

Eastern railroad CSX has already reached agreements with labor unions representing 17 job categories, which combined represent nearly 60pc of its unionized workforce.

"This is the right approach for CSX," chief executive Joe Hinrichs said last month. Getting the national agreements on wages and benefits done will then let CSX work with employees on efficiency, safety and other issues, he said.

Western carrier Union Pacific is taking a similar path. "We look forward to negotiating a deal that improves operating efficiency, helps provide the service we sold to our customers" and enables the railroad to thrive, it said.

Some talks may be tough. The Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen (BLET) and Union Pacific are in court over their most recent agreement. But BLET is meeting with Union Pacific chief executive Jim Vena next week, and with CSX officials the following week.

Traditional group negotiation is also proceeding. BNSF, Norfolk Southern and the US arm of Canadian National last week initiated talks under the National Carriers' Conference Committee to amend existing contracts with 12 unions.

Under the Railway Labor Act, rail labor contracts do not expire, a regulation designed to keep freight moving. But if railroads and unions again go months without reaching agreements, freight movements will again be at risk.


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23/12/24

Viewpoint: Asia scrap set to face uncertainty in 2025

Viewpoint: Asia scrap set to face uncertainty in 2025

Singapore, 23 December (Argus) — The Asian scrap metal sector is poised to face a tumultuous start in 2025, coming under pressure from a supply glut of steel exports from China, persistently low steel demand and uncertainty stemming from mounting protectionist measures to safeguard domestic steel businesses. An ongoing oversupply of steel products is expected to exert continuous downward pressure on Asia's ferrous sector, at least in the first half-quarter of 2025. China's crude steel production is set to surpass the 1bn t mark again this year as production stood at 850.7mn t across January-October. And it is clear that domestic steel demand in the country has lagged behind supply. China exported 101.2mn t from January-November this year, marking a 22.6pc spike from the same period in 2023. The surge was particularly evident in October, when exports grew by 40.8pc year on year, hitting an eight-year high as Chinese mills sought export markets to relieve domestic sales pressures. Beijing has announced a series of stimulus measures since late September, but the impact of these measures so far has been limited to cushioning falls in the property market as the recovery in property sales has been largely confined to top-tier cities, and market participants expect any recovery to remain subdued in 2025. Taiwan Taiwan's ferrous sector has seen a series of setbacks this year in the form of natural calamities, geopolitical tensions, inclement weather and increased competition from cheap semi-finished steel from Russia, China and Indonesia. In addition, real-estate demand has been significantly lower since the third quarter of this year after Taiwan's central bank tightened credit controls. The weaker real-estate market has driven many construction companies to suspend or delay their projects, which dented steel and steel scrap demand further. The ferrous scrap price and demand outlook is mixed, and many participants foresee no improvements even by February or March. South Korea South Korean steelmakers have faced significant challenges this year, and the world's sixth-largest steel producer is expected to face persistent headwinds in 2025 on the global economic slowdown, stiff competition from other low-cost steel producers, potential tariffs under US president-elect Donald Trump's second term and rising electricity prices. South Korea's leading steelmaker, Posco, shut down its No 1 wire rod mill at the Pohang Steel Works in November, after 45 years of operation in response to a the global oversupply of wire rods and intensified competition from low-cost imports, particularly from China. Hyundai has also shut down its Pohang No 2 plant, which has capacity of 700,000t/yr for long products used in the construction sector. The closure of these operations, coupled with prolonged low demand, probably will limit South Korean buyers' appetite for steel scrap in the first quarter of next year. Vietnam But there is hope for another key Asian steelmaking and consumption hub — Vietnam. Finished steel product sales rose by 15.6pc on the year to 24.5mn t in the first 10 months of this year, while steel exports grew by 6.2pc to 7.1mn t, according to the Vietnam Steel Association. Scrap imports also increased, by 11.7pc on the year, during the period. Market participants expect domestic construction steel demand to increase next year, driven by government-led infrastructure projects aimed at achieving a GDP growth target of 6.5-7.0pc. On the flip side, Vietnam steelmakers are facing various anti-dumping investigations in other markets, and seaborne steel prices will be under pressure if the Chinese domestic steel market continues to show weakness in 2025. In addition, the export outlook from China may ease, with more countries introducing protectionist measures to safeguard their local steel industries. Several more countries this year have implemented or are considering imposing anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products. These include major economies such as Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, the EU, India and Canada. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japan carmakers Honda, Nissan start formal merger talks


23/12/24
News
23/12/24

Japan carmakers Honda, Nissan start formal merger talks

Tokyo, 23 December (Argus) — Japanese automakers Honda and Nissan said today they have officially started merger talks and are aiming to close a deal by June 2025. Fellow Japanese carmaker Mitsubishi is also considering joining the transaction. Honda and Nissan have signed an initial agreement to discuss a merger, including by setting up a joint holding company under which the current brands would operate as subsidiaries. Honda will appoint a majority of the holding company's board members including its president or representative director, Honda's president Toshihiro Mibe said on 23 December. Mitsubishi will make a final decision on whether to participate in the negotiations before the end of January 2025. A Honda representative told Argus on 18 December that the firm was exploring a possible merger with Nissan. Collaboration on the electrification of automobiles is one of the major reasons for the merger, according to Honda and Nissan. The firms agreed a strategic partnership in March to work together on electrification, studying possible areas of co-operation in developing automotive software platforms, core components relating to electric vehicles (EVs) and complementary products. Honda aims to electrify all its new cars by 2040 and is investing ¥10 trillion ($64bn) by 2030 partly to reduce battery costs, which account for around 30-40pc of the total cost of producing EVs, Mibe said in May. Honda's combined sales of EVs and fuel cell EVs (FCEVs) more than doubled to around 42,000 units in 2023, according to the company. But this only accounts for around 1pc of its total sales. Further investments on electrification by a single manufacturer are not feasible, Mibe said on 23 December. Nissan produced 3.4mn vehicles in 2023. It does not provide a precise breakdown for global EV sales, although it said in August 2023 that such sales had surpassed 1mn units since its first delivery in 2010. This is dwarfed by foreign EV competitors, including Chinese producer BYD and US manufacturer Tesla, whose sales exceeded 3mn and 1.8mn units respectively in 2023 alone. The merger is also designed to optimise facilities owned by Honda and Nissan, Mibe said. But he denied that it would lead to a reduction in production capacity or asset cuts. The companies instead aim to expand output, Mibe added, although he did not disclose a detailed plan. Nissan is struggling to make a profit, partly because of weak EV demand. The company's net profit slumped by 94pc on the year to ¥19.2bn in April-September, prompting it to cut global production capacity, including for EVs, by 20pc to around 4mn units/yr. Nissan's financial struggles will not affect its collaboration with Honda, but it needs to accelerate its financial recovery, Nissan chief executive Makoto Uchida said on 7 November. But Mibe suggested on 23 December that Nissan's financial situation could cause the proposed merger to be scrapped. Japan's trade and industry ministry (Meti) has yet to make any official comment on the merger talks. But Meti minister Yoji Muto said on 20 December that restructuring the industry would generally help increase the value of private entity and promote innovation. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Securing steady Ni ore supply the new focus


23/12/24
News
23/12/24

Viewpoint: Securing steady Ni ore supply the new focus

Singapore, 23 December (Argus) — Nickel ore supply security has become a main focus for investors and smelters after the delayed approval of Indonesian nickel mining work plans (RKABs) resulted in tight spot ore availability earlier in the year. Ramping up capacity and maximising profit margins have always been the priority for smelters, but the shortage of Indonesian nickel ore in some months this year turned their attention to securing ore supply instead. The lack of ore availability was largely attributed to slow RKAB approval rates and a disproportionate allocation of RKABs to companies and regions, particularly during the monsoon in May-August. Some smelters resorted to cutting production, while others opted to seek out alternative supplies. Imports of nickel ore to Indonesia were 55 times higher on the year in January-October, with the Philippines providing the bulk at 9.08mn t. Indonesia has approved a quota of 272mn wet metric tonnes (wmt) for 2024 and 247mn wmt for 2025, according to market participants. And more RKABs are expected to be approved in the coming months. Indonesia's nickel production — including nickel pig iron (NPI), mixed precipitate hydroxide (MHP) and matte — is projected to rise by 17pc on the year to 2.15mn t of nickel metal equivalent this year, and is expected to increase by 12pc to 2.4mn t in 2025, Argus estimates. The increase is largely driven by MHP and matte, while NPI growth has slowed owing to a lukewarm stainless steel sector. Indonesia-produced NPI is typically exported to China's stainless steel melt sector, whose output is projected to climb by 4.1pc on the year to 38.4mn t in 2024. But the growth rate could slow to 3.5pc given lacklustre demand in the machine building and property sectors. Indonesia has become the main global supplier of MHP and matte after a nickel price downturn forced various western mines and plants to enter care and maintenance, temporary suspensions or shutdowns. MHP and matte are the feedstocks to produce nickel sulphate, which is used in the production of nickel cathodes or batteries and subsequently electric vehicles (EVs). Nickel consumption in the Chinese EV sector is expected to remain firm at 343,000t in 2024 and 2025, while cathode output is expected to increase with new projects under way. The London Metal Exchange warehouse system has become a popular option to store the surplus cathodes. The forecast NPI, MHP and matte output of 2.15mn t and 2.4mn t of nickel metal equivalent would require 217mn wmt and 246mn wmt of nickel ore in 2024 and 2025, respectively, according to Argus data. This suggests that RKAB for 2024 and 2025 is probably more than enough to meet demand. But the unpredictability of the approval timeline, allocation of RKABs and weather conditions could disrupt ore availability, prompting smelters to adopt a more cautious stance — monitoring the progress of further RKAB approvals while actively securing new sources of nickel ore supply. Locking in supply agreements with nickel mining firms seems to have become a main priority of smelters, with collaborations increasing between Chinese investors and mining companies. Chinese battery metals and materials producer Green Eco-Manufacture (GEM) is partnering Indonesian nickel firm Merdeka Battery Material to secure ore for their high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) production. GEM has another joint HPAL project with PT Vale Indonesia (PTVI), a subsidiary of Brazilian mining firm Vale. PTVI will also supply nickel ore to a HPAL project with Chinese battery metals and materials producer Huayou Cobalt and global automaker Ford. The Indonesian government extended mineral and coal information system Simbara to the nickel and tin supply chain in in July, in an effort to increase domestic and export shipment transparency, curb illegal mining and raise state revenue. But the system's implementation could disrupt steady nickel ore supply and consequently raise production costs because only registered mining firms with RKABs are allowed to issue invoices and billings, market participants suggested. Nickel ore demand VS RKAB.pdf Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japan’s Chugoku restarts Shimane nuclear reactor early


23/12/24
News
23/12/24

Japan’s Chugoku restarts Shimane nuclear reactor early

Osaka, 23 December (Argus) — Japanese utility Chugoku Electric Power restarted the 820MW Shimane No.2 nuclear reactor for test operations on 23 December, two days earlier than originally planned. The No.2 reactor at Shimane in west Japan's Shimane prefecture was reconnected to the country's power grids for the first time in nearly 13 years, after the reactor shut down in January 2012 for stricter safety inspections following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear meltdown disaster. Chugoku reactivated the Shimane No.2 reactor on 7 December, aiming to resume power generation on 25 December. But the target date for commercial operations remained unchanged on 10 January, despite the earlier than expected restart. The Shimane No.2 reactor will be a vital power source as the sole nuclear fleet in the Chugoku area, to help enhance the resilience of the power supply structure, stabilise retail electricity prices and reduce CO2 emissions, said Japan Atomic Industrial Forum's president Hideki Masui on 23 December. The Shimane No.2 reactor is the second boiling water reactor (BWR) to be restarted after the Fukushima disaster, following the 825MW Onagawa No.2 BWR unit that resumed test generation on 15 November, with normal operations scheduled to restart on 26 December. The BWR is the same type as that involved in the meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi plant. The restart of the two BWRs would pave the way for Japan's nuclear restoration, as 15 BWRs — including advanced BWRs — are still closed in the wake of the Fukushima disaster. Japan has restored 14 reactors as of 23 December, including the Shimane and Onagaw reactors, of which 12 are installed with a pressurised water reactor (PWR) design. Nuclear power's share The Japanese government last week set a target of 20pc for nuclear power's share in the country's draft power mix for the April 2040-March 2041 fiscal year, under the triennial review for the country's Strategic Energy Plan (SEP). Tokyo is seeking to restart all existing reactors to achieve the 20pc goal, adding that replacement reactors would also be possible. The draft SEP allows nuclear power operators that had decommissioned reactors to build next-generation reactors at their nuclear sites, not limited to the same site. The previous SEP did not mention building new reactors or replacements. Japan's Federation of Electric Power Companies (FEPC) has applauded this progress, but FEPC chairman Kingo Hayashi noted that it was disappointing the SEP did not mention a nuclear capacity target which the FEPC had requested. It also did not include building new reactors or the expansion of existing nuclear plants, Hayashi added. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Europe’s refiners eye support from closures


23/12/24
News
23/12/24

Viewpoint: Europe’s refiners eye support from closures

London, 23 December (Argus) — Another tranche of European refining capacity will close for good next year, but the reprieve for margins in the region may only be temporary. Nearly 400,000 b/d of capacity, around 3pc of Europe's total, is scheduled for permanent closure in 2025, comprising Petroineos' 150,000 b/d Grangemouth refinery in Scotland, Shell's 147,000 b/d Wesseling refinery in Germany and a third of the capacity at BP's nearby 257,000 b/d Gelsenkirchen refinery . Around 30 refineries have closed in Europe since 2000. Among the most recent was Italian firm Eni's 84,000 b/d Livorno refinery in northern Italy earlier this year. And only this month, trading firm Gunvor announced it is mothballing its small upgrading refinery in Rotterdam . The Rotterdam facility had already stopped processing crude in 2020, leaving it peculiarly exposed to the margins between intermediate feedstocks and finished fuels. The refinery has been hit by a 25pc increase in operating costs in the last four years and a squeeze on margins, the latter the result of competition from new refineries outside the region, Gunvor said. Outside Europe, the world has added more than 2.5mn b/d of crude distillation capacity in the last three years. Three brand new refineries have come on stream in the Middle East in that time — Saudi Arabia's 400,000 b/d Jizan, Kuwait's 615,000 b/d Al-Zour with Oman's 230,000 b/d Duqm refineries. More recently, Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery, Mexico's 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery and Yulong Petrochemical's 400,000 b/d refinery in China's Shandong province started up, all of which are likely to ramp up throughput in 2025. Refinery closures tend to support margins for those that remain. But European refiners' costs continue to rise while demand for their products falls, which means next year's closures are unlikely to be the last. Simpler and smaller refineries are prime candidates for closure as they usually achieve weaker margins. Europe also has plenty of refineries built before 1950 that are still running. These older plants can be more at risk of accidents and breakdowns. And repairs can sometimes cost so much that they tip a refinery into the red. An ongoing concern for European refiners is the trend towards lighter and sweeter crude slates , driven by supply-side dynamics, which is resulting in higher naphtha yields at a time when demand for naphtha from Europe's petrochemical sector is under pressure from a contraction in cracking capacity. But many in the market expect the greatest pressure in 2025 will fall on those coastal refineries in Europe that were built to maximise gasoline output. If, as expected, Dangote continues to shrink Nigeria's demand for gasoline imports , these refineries will be hit hardest. Any refinery that cannot desulphurise all of its gasoline output to the 10ppm required for UK or EU usage will be under intense pressure, as west Africa is presently among the only outlets for European high-sulphur gasoline. Strike support One of the strongest supports for European refining margins in 2025 could come in the form of industrial action if new capacity cuts or closures were to be announced. Refinery workers in the region have shown willing and able in the past to organise large-scale strikes, most emphatically in France. The highest diesel refining margins Argus has ever recorded came in October 2022, when the entire French refining system was shut down by strikes. Another trend to watch out for next year is the continuing shift in the ownership structure of Europe's refining sector. The large integrated oil companies that have dominated the industry for so long have been steadily selling European refining assets to independents and trading firms. The latter are nimbler and able to cut costs more ruthlessly. And with many of them not publicly listed, they are less susceptible to pressure regarding their environmental footprints. There could be more instalments in this story in 2025. Sweden's Preem started accepting bids for its Swedish refining assets in the summer of 2024 and Russia's Lukoil is considering bids for its Burgas refinery in Bulgaria. By Benedict George Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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