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US Fed cuts rate by quarter point, 2nd cut this year

  • Market: Metals
  • 07/11/24

The US Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate by 25 basis points today, its second cut since 2020, as it said inflation has "made progress" towards its 2pc target.

The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate to 4.50-4.75pc from the prior range of 4.75-5pc. This followed a half-point cut made in mid-September, the first cut since 2020. The Fed has been cutting its target rate from two-decade highs as inflation, which peaked at 9.1pc in mid-2022, has come down to near the Fed's 2pc target.

"The Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks" in considering additional adjustments to the target rate, the FOMC said in its statement after the two-day meeting. "Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated," it said, adding that the unemployment rate "has moved up but remains low."

The rate cut comes two days after Republican Donald Trump, a vocal critic of the Federal Reserve during his first term in office from 2017-2021, was elected president. With vote counting ongoing, the Republicans appeared set to win both houses of Congress, giving Trump virtually unrestrained powers.


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13/01/25

Mexico’s industrial output up 0.1pc in November

Mexico’s industrial output up 0.1pc in November

Mexico City, 13 January (Argus) — Mexico's industrial production edged up 0.1pc in November, as gains in autos and other manufacturing offset weaker construction, national statistics agency Inegi said. Mexican bank Banorte described the monthly increase as "rather small," noting it followed a 1.1pc decline in October and was largely driven by base comparison effects. The bank added that the overall industrial outlook remained "fragile." Manufacturing, which represents 63pc of Inegi's seasonally adjusted industrial activity indicator (IMAI), increased by 0.7pc in November, though it failed to fully recover from a 1.7pc drop in October. Transportation manufacturing, a key subsector accounting for 12pc of the sector, rose by 3.8pc after a steep 4.3pc decline the prior month. Despite recent volatility, Mexico's auto sector achieved record annual light vehicle production in 2024, reaching 3.99mn units. Yet, automaker association AMIA warned of potential challenges in 2025 because of economic uncertainty, which could affect investment and demand. Mining, which makes up 12pc of the IMAI, increased by 0.1pc in November following a 1.1pc decline in October. Growth was driven by a 41.4pc jump in mining-related services, while oil and gas output fell by 2.4pc, marking a fifth consecutive monthly decline for hydrocarbons. Construction, representing 19pc of the IMAI, contracted by 1.8pc in November after modest gains of 0.2pc in October and 1.1pc in September. As industry eyes potential policy shifts under US president-elect Donald Trump, Banorte projected a weak start to 2025 for Mexico's industrial output. But it expects momentum to build as government spending on priority infrastructure projects "moves more decisively." By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Lithium prices unlikely to recover in 2025


13/01/25
News
13/01/25

Lithium prices unlikely to recover in 2025

London, 13 January (Argus) — Prices for lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) are unlikely to recover this year, according to market participants, owing to high inventories and Chinese overcapacity. While the vast majority of firms have either suspended or trimmed production at costs above Argus -assessed prices (see graph) , a number of other factors have weighed on price rises, including redundant Chinese lithium refining capacity, inventories of low and mid-grade concentrate and end-of-life LFP batteries. Chinese lepidolite, African low-grade ores and Brazilian tailings are "not immune" to low prices, according to supply chain consultantcy SC Insights. Prices are currently far below highs of $80,000/t in late 2022, although not at record lows by historical standards. "We have put our lithium plant in Zimbabwe on ice for now, margins are just too tight," a southern Africa-based producer said. The market could start to recover in the second half of 2026 as carmakers turn increasingly towards lower-cost lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, SC Insights said. Between 2025 and 2026, major carmakers will start "socialising the intensions of using more LFP and LFMP [lithium iron manganese phosphate]", with it especially vital that LFMP producers "react early and offer a cost-competitive solution in CAM/LIB [cathode active material/lithium-ion battery] spaces". SC Insights forecasts that global annual LCE production will tip over 2.5mn t of LCE by 2030 (see graph) , from just over 1mn t last year, based on the adoption of these newer battery chemistries. Buildout of this supply will depend, SC Insights said, on the proposed restriction of CAM/LIB technology by China. The buildout of Argentinian lithium production could be a key factor in 2025, according to SC Insights, after global mining giant Rio Tinto announced last October that it would buy Arcadium Lithium. Argentinian president Javier Milei and Rio Tinto held a meeting in December 2024 and although it is unclear what the results of that meeting were, the relationship between Rio Tinto and the Argentinian government could be important for the lithium market this year. Argentina holds the third-largest reserves of lithium at 3.6mn t behind Chile and Australia, and the second-largest pool of resources at 23mn t, behind Bolivia, according to the US Geological Survey in January. By Chris Welch Cost of production, lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) Lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) production t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US added 256,000 jobs in December


10/01/25
News
10/01/25

US added 256,000 jobs in December

Houston, 10 January (Argus) — The US added 256,000 nonfarm jobs in December, reflecting a robust labor market that may prompt the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing costs higher for longer. Analysts had expected gains of about 160,000 jobs for December. The gains last month followed 212,000 more jobs in November, which were downwardly revised by 15,000, the Labor Department said Friday. Job gains in October were revised up by 7,000 to 43,000 jobs. The CME's FedWatch tool today showed 97.3pc probability Fed policy makers will keep the target lending rate unchanged at 4.25-4.5pc at the next Fed meeting at the end of the month, up from 93.6pc on Thursday. FedWatch shows nearly 60pc probability of no change through the May meeting, up from about 45pc Thursday. Unemployment edged down to 4.1pc in December from 4.2pc the prior month. Payroll employment gains averaged 186,000/month in 2024, for total gains of 2.2mn jobs. That was down from 251,000 jobs/month in 2023, for total gains of 3mn jobs that year. Health care added 46,000 jobs in December, retail trade added 43,000 jobs, government jobs rose by 33,000, social assistance increased by 23,000, and leisure and hospitality added 43,000 jobs. Construction added 8,000 jobs in December. Manufacturing lost 13,000 jobs and mining and logging lost 3,000 jobs. Transportation and warehousing jobs grew by 9,600. Average hourly earnings grew by an annual 3.9pc following 4pc growth in November. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Eurofer requests steel import duty, quota changes


09/01/25
News
09/01/25

Eurofer requests steel import duty, quota changes

London, 9 January (Argus) — The European steel association Eurofer has requested a reduction in the safeguard quota volumes and a higher duty on material above quotas amid the ongoing measures review, according to partner at law firm Van Bael & Bellis Yuriy Rudyuk. The reduction in the quota volumes is to reflect the decrease in steel demand in the bloc. Eurofer data shows apparent steel consumption has decreased nearly 15pc between 2017 and projected 2024 volumes. The association is looking for the safeguard tariff to increase to 32-41pc from the current 25pc, Rudyuk said. In addition, a 15pc cap to countries' access to "other countries'" quotas is being requested — this mechanism already applies to the hot-rolled coils (HRC) and wire rod quotas. This would be particularly impactful for the hot-dipped galvanised quotas, which have been typically dominated by Vietnam. The association would also like for more country specific quotas to be introduced, for no residual volumes to be carried over, and for no new developing countries exemptions. Currently, developing countries who are members of the WTO with small historical supply to the bloc are exempt from the safeguards. Eurofer did not answer a request for comment. The EC is currently inviting users and producers of steel to submit a questionnaire for the ongoing measures review by 10 January. By Lora Stoyanova Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japan Al: 1Q premium surges on tight supply


09/01/25
News
09/01/25

Japan Al: 1Q premium surges on tight supply

Shanghai, 9 January (Argus) — Japan's aluminium P1020 premiums for the first quarter of 2025 was settled at $228/t over cash London Metal Exchange (LME) prices. Premiums rose by $53/t from the previous quarter, reaching the highest level since Argus began the assessment in 2016. Initial offers were much higher at above $240/t in December, and only a small volume was concluded at $228/t to Japan. The significant increase was primarily driven by concerns over future supply in the seaborne market and escalating trade measures in the global market. Some suppliers either withdrew their production forecasts or planned to reduce output levels, fuelling concerns about tight supply. China announced the cancellation of the 13pc export tax rebate for fabricated aluminium products from 1 December 2024, which led to increased demand from rolling mills outside China. The premium in the US also rose because of potential higher import tariffs. But demand in Japan is still weak owing to slow domestic car production and construction activity. Japan's domestic car production continued its downward trajectory for most of 2024, with output recording a year-on-year fall for every month from January to November, except in May and July. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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