US inflation rises in October to 2.6pc

Market: Coal, LPG, Metals, Natural gas
13/11/24

US inflation ticked higher in October, led by monthly gains in shelter, a reminder that the last lap in the Federal Reserve's marathon to bring inflation to its long-term target remains a challenge.

The consumer price index (CPI) accelerated to an annual 2.6pc in October, in line with analysts' forecasts in a survey by Trading Economics, from 2.4pc in September, which was the lowest since February 2021, the Labor Department reported today. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose at a 3.3pc rate, unchanged on the month.

The energy index contracted by 4.9pc over the 12 months, slowing from a decline of 6.8pc through September. The gasoline index fell by 12.2pc, slowing from a 15.3pc decrease the prior month. The fuel oil index fell by 20.8pc.

Federal Reserve policymakers last week cut the target rate by a quarter point, following a half-point cut in September that kicked off an easing cycle from then-23-year highs. Inflation has slowed to near the Fed's 2pc target from highs above 9pc in mid-2022 that proved to be a major impetus behind president-elect Donald Trump's victory at the ballot box on 5 November.

The CME's FedWatch tool today gives near-80pc odds of another quarter-point cut in December.

"The economy can develop in a way that would cause us to go faster or slower" in adjusting rates lower, Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters last week after the Fed decision.

The food index rose by an annual 2.1pc, slowing from a 2.3pc gain through September. Shelter rose by an annual 4.9pc, unchanged. Transportation services rose by 8.2pc. New vehicles fell by 1.3pc while used vehicle prices fell by 3.4pc. Services less energy services, viewed as core services, rose by 4.8pc.

On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.2pc in October, a fourth month of such gains after falling by 0.1pc in June. Core inflation rose by 0.3pc for a third month.

Shelter accelerated to a 0.4pc monthly gain, accounting for over half of the monthly all-items increase, after a 0.2pc gain.

Energy was unchanged in October after falling by 1.9pc in September from the prior month. Food rose by 0.2pc on the month, following a 0.4pc gain.

By Bob Willis

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13/11/24

Cop: Argentina pulls delegation from Baku

Montevideo, 13 November (Argus) — Argentina's government today withdrew its delegation from the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. The country's foreign affairs ministry confirmed to Argus that the delegation had been told to leave the event, which began on 11 November and will run through 22 November. No reason was given for the decision, but it fits the general policies of President Javier Milei, who has expressed skepticism about climate change. Milei eliminated the country's environment ministry shortly after taking office in December 2023. He is also pursuing investment to monetize oil and gas reserves, with a focus on the Vaca Muerta unconventional formation. Vaca Muerta has an estimated 308 trillion cf of natural gas and 16bn bl of oil, according to the US Energy Information Administration. In October, the government created the Argentina LNG division with a plan to involve private companies and the state-owned YPF to produce and export up to 30mn metric tonnes (t)/yr of LNG by 2030. It wants to export 1mn bl of crude. The plans are closely linked to a new investment framework, known as RIGI, that will provide incentives for large-scale investments. The administration is also pushing hard for investment in critical minerals, including copper and lithium. Argentina has the world's second-largest lithium resources, estimated at 22mn t by the US Geological Survey. It has copper potential that the RIGI would help tap. The government has not specified if pulling out of Cop 29 means Argentina will withdraw from the Paris Agreement, which Argentina ratified in 2016. The country's nationally determined contribution calls for net emissions not to exceed 359mn t of CO2 by 2030. This represents a 21pc reduction of emissions from the maximum reached in 2007. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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No sign of peak in CO2 from fossil fuels: Report

13/11/24

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13/11/24

No sign of peak in CO2 from fossil fuels: Report

London, 13 November (Argus) — Carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to hit a fresh record high of 37.4bn t in 2024, with "no sign" that these have peaked, a team of scientists said today in the 2024 Global Carbon Budget report. Total CO2 emissions are projected to reach 41.6bn t in 2024, up from 40.6bn t in 2023, which includes emissions of around 4.2bn t from land-use change, the report found. It also estimates the global carbon budget remaining before the 1.5°C temperature limit set out in the Paris climate agreement is "breached consistently over multiple years". The remaining carbon budget "has almost run out", the report found. There is a 50pc chance that warming will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels "consistently in about six years", the report found. There is uncertainty around the estimates, largely owed to the effects of other greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as methane and nitrous oxide, it noted. The Paris accord seeks to limit a rise in global temperature to "well below" 2°C above a pre-industrial average, and preferably to 1.5°C. This year is on track to be the hottest on record , the World Meteorological Organisation said on 11 November — the opening day of the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. And drought conditions have helped to reverse a recent downward trend in CO2 emissions from land-use change — such as deforestation — in 2024. Those emissions are set to rise in 2024, after falling by 20pc in the past decade, the report found. Permanent CO2 removals from reforestation and planting new trees is "offsetting about half of the permanent deforestation emissions", it added. And the report authors noted that technology-based carbon removals — typically engineered, rather than nature-based — are at current levels only able to account for one-millionth of the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. Projections for the highest-emitting countries — China, the US and India — are mixed. China's emissions are projected to increase by 0.2pc in 2024, although the report noted that the range means they could decrease. US emissions are set to drop by 0.6pc, while India's are projected to rise by 4.6pc this year. The Global Carbon Budget report — which will be peer-reviewed — is produced annually by an international team of more than 120 scientists. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump’s win yields mixed picture for LNG market

13/11/24

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13/11/24

Trump’s win yields mixed picture for LNG market

London, 13 November (Argus) — Global gas and LNG market participants await clarity on president-elect Donald Trump's course of action once he takes office in January, as the net impact of some of its stated policies remains difficult to gauge. Price movements in recent days show little evidence of a market reaction to the outcome of the election. Prompt and near-curve LNG prices for delivery to Europe and Asia have risen, mostly tracking the increase in European hub prices. But the change in euro-denominated hub prices appears largely unrelated to the jump in the value of the US dollar that followed Trump's win. The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six other currencies, has rallied since Trump's victory became apparent, reaching a two-year high on 13 November. The US currency was worth over €0.95 on Wednesday, up from €0.91 on polling day. This might have contributed to stronger European hub prices, albeit only slightly. Exchange rates aside, the election result was never likely to have a serious short-term impact on the LNG market. The halt to Russian gas flows through Ukraine at the end of this year, when transit and interconnection agreements between Moscow and Kyiv expire, is the variable with the most disruptive potential for European gas markets that are much more reliant on LNG since Russia launched its full-scale invasion. But a shift in US policy would not be able to exert influence on any negotiations — which remain hypothetical at present — aimed at extending gas flows through Ukraine, given that Trump is only due to take office in late January. But Trump's policies might from next year affect the LNG market. US LNG producers have expressed mixed feelings about the consequences of a second Trump administration, with a dividing line emerging between firms that already export LNG and those that want to build new export facilities. Forward gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub also appear to show a mixed picture, with contracts for delivery next year and in 2026 rising broadly in line with the near curve, while prices for delivery in the following two years have held broadly stable. Operators of existing liquefaction facilities were wary of Trump's enthusiastic endorsement of protectionist policies, which they fear could trigger another trade war with China. The president-elect has pledged to impose a 20pc tariff on all imports — except those from China, which will instead be subject to 60pc. The possibility of Beijing following suit with retaliatory tariffs on US LNG— as in 2018-19, during Trump's first term — concerns many market participants. Trump's trade war with China in 2018-19 was widely seen as detrimental to development of the industry, as it hampered trade between the largest incremental producer and consumer. But the nature of most US LNG contracts — predominantly based on free-on-board delivery — reduced the short-term impact. While physical deliveries to China did vanish in 2019, no US LNG exporter reported cancellations that year, with cargoes simply resold elsewhere or swapped with LNG from other countries. The re-emergence of similar trade disputes from next year could force another reconfiguration of trade flows, possibly facilitated by the fact Europe is now a much larger LNG importer than in 2018-19, when it was heavily dependent on Russian pipeline gas. Physical deliveries of US LNG to China fell sharply in 2022 and have still been at less than half their 2021 peak this year (see chart). But while higher than six years ago, Europe's LNG demand has not pushed beyond 2022's record, and the amount of US LNG in Chinese portfolios is also much larger. On the other hand, developers of new US liquefaction facilities have pinned their hopes on Trump's pledge to reverse the Biden's administration licensing pause, which froze projects and in some cases lost them contracts. But speeding up project approvals could result in a much more amply supplied market later in the decade, when a swathe of new facilities are already due on line (see chart) Industry figures have suggested the [LNG market could be oversupplied as early as 2028](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2493845. The greatest uncertainties are related to how Trump deals with the conflict in Ukraine. He has boasted he would end the war on his first day in office — overly optimistic at best. But even if his administration could bring about a swift end to the conflict, a full normalisation of relations between Russia and Ukraine is difficult to imagine. Nevertheless, a relaxation of US sanctions — including those targeting Russia's existing 19.8mn t/yr Arctic LNG 2 terminal — could be an initial bargaining chip and might result in an immediate increase in supply. By Antonio Peciccia US liquefaction capacity mn t/yr US LNG deliveries to China mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: Developing nations eye sub-targets in finance goal

13/11/24

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13/11/24

Cop: Developing nations eye sub-targets in finance goal

Baku, 13 November (Argus) — The finance goal for developing countries under negotiation at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, must include a core public finance target from developed countries, with fund allocation floors for least developed countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing states (Sids), delegates from developing countries said today. The goal, the so-called new collective and quantified goal (NCQG), must include a core public finance provision target by developed countries based on a burden sharing agreement, and a fund mobilisation target, said regional alliance the African Group of Negotiators' (AGN) lead co-ordinator for finance Richard Sherman. The goal should address mitigation — action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions — and also adaptation and loss and damage, he said. Adaptation refers to adjustments to avoid global warming effects, while loss and damage describes the unavoidable and irreversible effects of such change. The goal needs to offer "predictable finance" for adaptation and loss and damage for small economies with more limited resources, and recognise the "special case of Sids", said Samoa's environment minister and chair of the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis) Toeolesulusulu Cedric Schuster. He said the amount to be agreed at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku for developing countries' climate finance should include "minimum allocation floors" of $39bn/yr for SIDs and $220bn/yr for LDCs. Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine said parties should make sure no finance supporting development of fossil fuels is counted in the new goal. AGN reiterated today that it wants a climate finance commitment of $1.3 trillion/yr by 2030, mostly through concessional instruments and grants. The NCQG follows on from the current $100bn/yr target, which is broadly recognised as inadequate. Developed nations surpassed the goal by $15.9bn in 2022, but it was missed in 2020 and 2021, according to the OECD. AGN contests it has never been met . Negotiations on the NCQG have begun in Baku, but are in the early stages with developed countries unwilling to commit to a figure, a delegate said. A group of leading Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) estimated yesterday that they could increase climate financing to $120bn/yr by 2030 for low- and middle-income countries. The group, comprising the World Bank and nine other MDBs including the European Investment Bank, hope to leverage an additional $65bn/yr from the private sector. MDBs accounted for around 40pc of the $115.9bn in climate finance provided and mobilised by developed countries to developing nations in 2022, according to the OECD. The role of MDBs is crucial as increased climate ambition can only be met with increased finance, said Chile's environment minister Maisa Rojas. But Fiji's deputy prime minister Biman Prasad said the increase coming from MDBs is not going to translate into "additional finance unless there is a clear agreement at this Cop". By Bachar Halabi and Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Five factors to watch for in the tungsten market

13/11/24

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13/11/24

Five factors to watch for in the tungsten market

Barcelona, 13 November (Argus) — The tungsten market is evolving quickly and Argus has identified five key developments to watch out for in the market, following the International Tungsten Industry Association (ITIA) conference in Barcelona last week. Increasing demand for tungsten concentrate Tungsten scrap availability is declining, which has increased global consumption of tungsten concentrate. China in particular has a growing appetite for tungsten, and tungsten concentrate prices in the country are rising significantly. Between January and August this year, China's tungsten concentrate imports rose by 95pc, driven by strong domestic demand for raw material feedstock which has faced tight supply for the past two years. Furthermore, production costs in the Chinese tungsten market have risen rapidly. According to a panellist, only a few new projects are expected to be operational this year. Argus' European tungsten concentrate price stood at $260-270/kg on 13 November, up by 8pc on the year. Mergers and acquisitions activity intensifies The industry is experiencing an uptick in mergers and acquisitions, with more expected in the near term. This aligns with broader trends in the global mining sector. Market sources indicated that they expect one or two acquisitions annually in the tungsten sector, with increased activity projected by next year. Over the next decade, industry consolidation is expected, especially in the US where the market remains fragmented. "Companies have the option to grow organically or through acquiring smaller firms, for instance, in the tooling market," a supplier stated. This consolidation trend is already under way in China, leading to more integrated tungsten supply chains. Due diligence requirements evolve There is growing pressure for improved due diligence across the supply chain, although challenges remain. Some downstream consumers are adopting risk-avoidance strategies rather than risk mitigation, asking their entire supply chains to stop sourcing materials from "suspended countries." Disputes regarding due diligence mechanisms amid conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo add complexity in this area. Additionally, with the US increasing tariffs on Chinese tungsten products, Chinese smelters may shift from the Responsible Minerals Assurance Process (RMAP) to their own guidelines, recently introduced in 2023 by the China Chamber of Commerce of Metals, Minerals and Chemicals Importers and Exporters (CCCMC). This shift could enhance their negotiating leverage and may require cross-recognition between the RMAP and CCCMC, potentially benefiting downstream companies. Diversification of supply chains Concerns about a trade war between the US and China and over-reliance on one supplier are driving efforts for supply chain diversification in western countries. The US already charges a 25pc duty on imported Chinese tungsten products. This could escalate under president-elect Donald Trump, who proposed tariffs of up to 60pc on imports from China during his campaign. Notably, China accounts for over 80pc of global tungsten production. Initiatives to diversify sources are under way, such as the Sangdong mine in South Korea, which is expected on line next year. In the US, the Department of Defense is providing funding opportunities for the development of domestic mining. At the moment, Guardian Metals in Nevada is the only project that could come into production in the US in the next three years. Defence, energy and mining could partially offset auto demand decline The tungsten industry is exploring new sector applications to address demand shortfalls in the automotive industry. Electric vehicles utilise less metal than gasoline and diesel vehicles. But there is increasing demand from the mining, oil and gas sectors, as well as military applications and aircraft. Market sources have high expectations for tungsten's use in nuclear fusion engines, which are expected to become a reality potentially within three years. In China, demand for tungsten wire in the solar industry has grown owing to the country's decarbonisation targets, although overcapacity in solar glass could affect this demand. And there have been developments in semiconductors, with chipmakers like Nvidia and TSMC using tungsten wires for chip and panel production. By Cristina Belda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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