Bangladesh’s spot LNG purchases spike on power demand

Market: Natural gas
14/11/24

Spot LNG imports into Bangladesh have spiked just three months into the interim government of Muhammad Yunus. The interest upsurge is the largest seen so far, and is made more compelling particularly with spot prices well above $13/mn Btu, which has sidelined even key importers such as India and China.

The rise in LNG imports comes on the back of Bangladesh's power market struggling to meet electricity supply owing to unpaid power bills under the previous prime minister Sheikh Hasina's government earlier this year.

Bangladesh's power generation currently has stabilised after experiencing a sharp downturn in August when the former prime minister resigned. Maximum power generation so far this month stands at an average of 12.5GW, up by 6pc on the year (see graph).

Bangladesh's Rupantarita Prakritik Gas (RPGCL), operating under state-owned oil and gas firm Petrobangla, is the sole LNG importer in the country. The super-chilled fuel helps to meet over 50pc of the country's electricity requirement.

RPGCL floated tenders for 23 LNG cargoes since September this year including multiple reissuances, compared with just eight cargoes floated over the same period last year. RPGCL floated tenders for a total of 27 cargoes in 2023, Argus data show. These tenders were mostly awarded to four suppliers — Singapore-based Vitol Asia, Gunvor Singapore, TotalEnergies and Excelerate Energy, despite having a list of 23 companies across the globe to import LNG from.

Out of the 23 LNG tenders since September this year, only nine were awarded to these four firms except for one to Japan's Jera. Other tenders were withdrawn or reissued, possibly owing to insufficient offers, Argus data indicate.

The firm recently invited expressions of interest (EOI) from sellers that wish to supply delivered LNG to Bangladesh to widen its pool of participants from which it may buy spot LNG.

The move could be linked to new public procurement regulations imposed by the interim government that require RPGCL to receive a minimum of three offers before it is able to award its tenders.

New vs old rules

The Public Procurement Rules, 2008 (PPR-2008), were set out to ensure transparency, efficiency and fair competition in the procurement of goods, works or services using public funds.

This deviates from RPGCL's previous practice of following a special power and energy law that had no mandatory provision on minimum participation in tenders, a company official told Argus last month.

The previous government had enacted the Speedy Power and Energy Supply (Special) Act 2010 to operate without tendering, which was mainly an impunity act based on a provision that prevented the act to be challenged in court.

The enactment of raising the EOI for the new seller list by the interim government is likely to stop any monopoly or preference for a particular LNG supplier in the country.

While some of the RPGCL tenders have gone unawarded in recent months owing to insufficient offers, a few of the recent tenders were heard to be awarded despite attracting just two offers, in an attempt to implement the PPR-2008 rules, according to sources with knowledge of the matter.

While it is still uncertain if RPGCL would be able to garner interest from more LNG sellers across the globe at a time when it is getting back on its feet to establish strong and transparent governance, it remains to be seen if more portfolio players would want to show their willingness to support a country that is likely to be hungry for gas for decades to come as their domestic production remains weak.

Gas output

Bangladesh's gas production including LNG stands at 2,868mn ft³/d (29.5bn m³/yr) as of 13 November, data from Petrobangla show. There was no figure available for the same period last year for comparison.

Gas output in the country has been weak since the Covid pandemic, with output falling to up to 2,306mn ft³/d, lower by 5pc on the year, Petrobangla data show. The production volumes also include LNG supply, which could meet 54pc of the gas demand of the country in 2023 (see table).

The interim government is heard to be addressing the most pressing issues in the country, particularly relating to the oil and gas exploration industry. Petrobangla has invited bids under Bangladesh Offshore Bidding Round 2024, offering a total of 24 blocks that include nine shallow-sea blocks and 15 deep-sea blocks with both oil and gas reserves. It has extended the deadline for bid submission to 9 December 2024, from 9 September 2024 previously.

By Rituparna Ghosh, Rou Urn Lee and Naomi Ong

Bangladesh natural gas					(mn ft³/d)
Natural gas	2018	2019	2020	2021	2023
Demand	3,852	3,996	4,163	4,214	4,274
Production(domestic+imported LNG)	2,712	2,669	2,722	2,414	2,306
Shortfall	1,140	1,327	1,441	1,800	1,968
— Bangladesh energy and mineral resource division

Bangladesh power generation MW

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