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Cop: G20 momentum key to Cop climate finance outcome

  • Market: Battery materials, Coal, Crude oil, Electricity, Emissions, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 18/11/24

The outcome of the G20 leaders' summit in Brazil taking place on Monday and Tuesday on climate financing will be key to the success of the UN Cop 29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, summit president Mukhtar Babayev said today.

"We cannot succeed without [the G20], and the world is waiting to hear from them," Babayev said. The leaders' summit takes place at the beginning of the second week of the Cop 29 conference. Progress at Cop 29 last week towards agreeing a new climate finance target for developing countries — the so-called NCQG — was not sufficient, Babayev said. He is concerned that parties are not moving towards each other fast enough. Little progress was made in the first week on three main areas of disagreement: the amount of climate finance which should be provided, how it should be structured, and which countries should contribute. Babayev urged G20 leaders, including US president Joe Biden who will be present in Brazil, to send a "positive signal of commitment to solving the climate crisis," and deliver clear mandates for Cop 29.

The talks in Baku move from the technical to the political phase this week. Ministers typically have more authority to move red lines. But parties should focus on wrapping up less contentious issues early in the week so as to leave time for major political decisions, according to Simon Stiell, executive secretary of UN climate body the UNFCCC.

Babayev expects talks on the amount of climate financing which will be on the table to continue until the last day of the summit at the end of this week, he said.

The Cop presidency has invited former and upcoming Cop hosts the UK and Brazil to advise and "ensure an ambitious and balanced package of negotiated outcomes." Both countries have in the past week communicated more ambitious emissions reduction targets, which have been broadly welcomed.

The EU today called for the Cop presidency to step up its role in the process. "We do need a presidency to lead, to steer us in the direction of a safe landing ground," European commissioner for climate action Wopke Hoekstra said.

Hoekstra declined to be drawn on the amount of climate financing that the EU would like to see. Developing countries have pushed for a high goal of $1.3 trillion/yr, well above the previous target of $100bn/yr. The EU today reiterated instead its desire for the base of contributor countries to be enlarged beyond the current roster of countries defined as developed under the UNFCCC, and for as much private finance to be mobilised as possible to add to public finance.


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18/11/24

Cop: Progress on actions to cut emissions uncertain

Cop: Progress on actions to cut emissions uncertain

Baku, 18 November (Argus) — Progress on mitigation — actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions — is uncertain at the UN Cop 29 climate summit, as talks on a specific text related to the issue are risk to be pushed back ito 2025, losing any progress made in the past year. Some countries had proposed using the mitigation work programme — a workstream focused on reducing emissions — to work towards the commitment made at Cop 28 in 2023 to "transition away" from fossil fuels. But talks have stalled and could end without a conclusion at the summit. Developed countries as well as developing nations including some small island states and countries in Latin America — such as Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Mexico — have expressed disappointment about how mitigation talks were going. New Zealand called on countries to follow up on last year's decision on mitigation at Cop 28 and Norway added that these issues deserved "more than silence on mitigation". Switzerland complained that mitigation was "held up by a select few", and said that the discussion was critical for increased commitments for next year's 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). NDCs are countries' climate plans that include emissions reduction targets. Cop parties are due to submit new versions by February 2025. The US also said that Cop 29 needed to "reaffirm the historical Global Stocktake decision" taken last year. And developed nations, led by the EU, called for discussion to continue this week — the second week of Cop 29. But countries including Bolivia, Iran and Saudi Arabia, for the Arab Group, pushed back on this. The mitigation work programme is "not… open to reinterpretation", Saudi Arabia's representative said today. The country said earlier that it did not want new targets to be imposed, complaining about the "top-down approach" taken by developed countries in mitigation talks. India reminded developed countries that they have yet to deliver on their new finance commitment — a crucial step for more ambitious NDCs in developing nations. But "Cop 29 cannot and will not be silent on mitigation", the summit's president, Mukhtar Babayev said today. "On mitigation we have been clear that we must make progress, "he said, adding that he has asked ministers from Norway and South Africa to consult on what an outcome on mitigation could look like. EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra today said that it is "imperative that we send a strong signal this week for the next round of NDCs", he said. Points related to mitigation — including transitioning away from fossil fuels and phasing out inefficient fossil fuels subsidies — are currently mentioned in the draft text for the new finance goal, known as the new collective quantified goal (NCQG). It is the key issue at Cop 29. Developed countries agreed to deliver $100bn/yr in climate finance to developing nations over 2020-25, and Cop parties must decide on the next stage — including the amount. Developed countries are likely push for the fossil fuel language to stay in the finance goal text, especially if mitigation talks stall elsewhere. But countries such as Saudi Arabia have long opposed this, while developed countries have received some criticism for still not having given an amount for the new finance target. By Georgia Gratton, Prethika Nair and Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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German diesel demand at year-high with winter shift


18/11/24
News
18/11/24

German diesel demand at year-high with winter shift

Hamburg, 18 November (Argus) — Traders in Germany noted a significant increase in diesel demand at the start of the past week because of lower prices and the transition to winter-grade fuel. Spot sales of heating oil and gasoline rose, particularly in the south and southwest. Middle distillates in Germany traded on 11-12 November at lower prices than in the week prior, pressured by declining Ice gasoil futures. But these rose in the following days. There is uncertainty in the market around the potential impact of US President-elect Donald Trump's trade policy from January. The upcoming switch to winter diesel in Germany could be leading to increased demand. Most tank storage and refinery operators have, since 1 November, been offering diesel and gasoline in winter quality. Only winter-grade fuel can be dispensed from 16 November. Consumers in recent weeks have been ordering smaller amounts of diesel, waiting for the switch to winter specification before replenishing stocks, traders told Argus . Consequently, diesel spot volumes reported to Argus increased to the highest this year on 11 November. Traded quantities of heating oil and gasoline also rose. But buying interest for middle distillates and gasoline weakened as the week went on. This month has seen high imports into northern Germany and elevated refinery production. On the Rhine river, falling water levels at the Kaub bottleneck has led to increased freight rates from Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) to destinations on the Upper Rhine. But demand for shipping space from importers in mid-November is so weak that the effect of low water levels on the rates was dampened, shipowners said. Water levels are forecast to rise in the coming days. TotalEnergies' 240,000 b/d Leuna refinery in eastern Germany, close to the border with Czech Republic, ended a maintenance shutdown in the past week. The shutdown had only minor effects on product availability but lasted longer than expected because of technical problems when ramping up. Leuna producing again marks the end of this year's maintenance season in Germany. By Johannes Guhlke Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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G20 takes climate spotlight as Cop 29 stalls


18/11/24
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18/11/24

G20 takes climate spotlight as Cop 29 stalls

Rio de Janeiro, 18 November (Argus) — A top UN climate official is urging G20 leaders to step up the pace of developing new climate finance goals, as talks on the topic have stalled at the UN Cop 29 climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan. "Climate finance progress outside of our process is equally crucial, and the G20's role is mission-critical," said UN climate body chief Simon Stiell in a letter to the G20 leaders, who start two days of meetings today in Rio de Janeiro. "[The summit] must send crystal-clear global signals." Leaders at the G20 summit have already promised to discuss terms of a fair energy transition, as Brazil — which is holding the group's presidency this year — picked the topic as one of its three goals, along with combating hunger, poverty and inequality and the reform of global governance. The leaders will present a joint statement on the energy transition on Tuesday and on the other two goals on Monday. Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and UN secretary general Antonio Guterres already met over the weekend at the end of the G20 Social, a Brazilian initiative parallel to the G20 meetings that seeks to "broaden the dialogue between countries and society" to discuss climate and environmental crises. Lula and Guterres discussed the need for a "coordinated international response to mitigate the effects of climate change, promote adaptation and protect the most vulnerable populations," according to a statement from the Brazilian environmental ministry. They also agreed that increasing international financing for climate action in developing countries is "urgent." The leaders discussed the increase in global climate ambitions through new Nationally Determined Contributions, aligned with the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement and in line with the scientific recommendations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US west coast refiners boost Canadian TMX intake


18/11/24
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18/11/24

US west coast refiners boost Canadian TMX intake

Houston, 18 November (Argus) — US west coast refiners have increased heavy Canadian crude purchases by almost 75pc since the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline started operations in May, but imminent California refinery closures threaten demand. The 590,000 b/d TMX project nearly tripled the capacity of Trans Mountain's pipeline system to 890,000 b/d when it opened on 1 May. The line runs from Alberta's oil sands to Vancouver on Canada's west coast, giving direct access to lucrative Asian markets, where buyers are eager for heavy sour crude. About 305,000 b/d of mostly heavy sour Canadian crude has loaded at the Westridge terminal in Vancouver in the six months since the pipeline made its debut, according to analytics firm Vortexa, hitting a record of nearly 415,000 b/d in October (see graph). US west coast refiners received just over 150,000 b/d during this period, up from less than 40,000 b/d a year earlier, and deliveries rose to a high of nearly 205,000 b/d last month (see graph). Most TMX crude destined for the US west coast has gone to Californian refiners, with Marathon, Chevron and Phillips 66 emerging as consistent buyers. Proximity to Vancouver and cheaper prices are attracting west coast buyers to TMX grades. The voyage time to California takes four days, compared with 10-14 days for Ecuadorean grades and over a month for Saudi crude. The new flows have undermined west coast interest in Mideast Gulf and Latin American supply. West coast imports from the Mideast Gulf fell by 25pc on the year to just under 260,000 b/d in the first six months of TMX operations, Vortexa data show. Crude arrivals from Saudi Arabia have been hardest hit, falling to only 40,000 b/d over the period, a third of the 2023 amount. Refiners are also turning away from Latin American grades. Mexican crude imports have dropped by 65pc since TMX started up, while imports of Ecuadorean heavy sour Napo and Oriente have fallen by 14pc. Napo differentials have weakened as a result, dropping to a $9.70/bl discount to Nymex WTI for October from a $6.70/bl discount for May. Oriente fell by $1.20/bl to a $5.70/bl discount to WTI between May and October. Alaskan ANS differentials have also come under pressure. December-delivery ANS averaged a $1.09/bl premium to Ice calendar-month average Brent, down from $4.30/bl a year earlier (see graph). But that drop has bolstered west coast demand for Alaskan crude, and spot ANS sales to the region rose by 8pc on the year to 1.6mn bl in May-December, Argus data show. Lower-priced ANS is also attracting interest from further afield — almost 1.2mn bl loaded for delivery to China in September, the highest such flows since April 2021, according to Vortexa. Rising tide Canadian crude remains plentifully supplied to refiners in the US midcontinent, despite earlier concerns that the TMX line would constrain availabilities. Rising Canadian oil sands output has meant that Enbridge's 3.1mn b/d Mainline system from west Canada to the US midcontinent has been operating at full capacity, and 2.9mn b/d flowed to the region in July, the highest for the month since 1993, US EIA data show. August imports fell to 2.6mn b/d after wildfires limited production in Canada's key upstream province Alberta. West coast demand for TMX crude could be undermined over the longer term by refinery closures. Phillips 66 aims to shut its 139,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery in late 2025. US west coast operators say more plants will close after then, citing a "hostile regulatory environment" in California and increased costs as the state government tightens the regulations governing refineries and production. By Rachel McGuire Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Canadian TMX crude finds favour in China


18/11/24
News
18/11/24

Canadian TMX crude finds favour in China

London, 18 November (Argus) — Canadian heavy crude exported from the country's west coast has become a steady supply source for Chinese refiners in the six months since the opening of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline in May, even as refiners elsewhere in Asia-Pacific have been more cautious about embracing the new flows. China-bound exports of Canadian heavy sour crude delivered along the TMX pipeline to Vancouver climbed to a fresh high of around 240,000 b/d in October, analytics platform Vortexa data show (see graph). This left average TMX loadings to China at around 150,000 b/d in June-October. The 590,000 b/d TMX project started loading cargoes in May. While Chinese refiners have been quick to embrace the convenience of the shortened time to import crude from Canada's Pacific coast, this has not been the case for other Asian refiners. China looked set to absorb all the October TMX exports to Asia-Pacific. Exports to other Asian destinations — South Korea, India, Japan and Brunei — averaged just 37,000 b/d in June-October. Weak refining margins may have encouraged Chinese buyers to turn to TMX-shipped crude, which has become their cheapest supply source not under sanctions. Private-sector Rongsheng has become a key buyer to meet its spot requirements of 4mn-6mn bl/month for the 800,000 b/d ZPC refinery in Zhejiang. The firm now buys between three and seven cargoes a month, or 53,000-125,000 b/d, of TMX crude, mainly Access Western Blend (AWB), a heavy sour grade with a higher total acid number (TAN) than Cold Lake, the other heavy sour TMX export. China's largest state-owned refiner Sinopec has also been a consistent buyer of AWB for its 470,000 b/d Maoming and 540,000 b/d Zhenhai refineries, and the increased Chinese buying of Canadian crude has displaced some of the country's usual intake from the Mideast Gulf . Rongsheng in the past bought large amounts of UAE grades including medium sour Upper Zakum through monthly spot tenders. Upper Zakum exports to China fell to around 380,000 b/d in June-October from just over 430,000 b/d in January-May and 615,000 b/d in 2023. The steep drop from last year might also be down to lower availabilities after Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc started to divert more Upper Zakum to its domestic Ruwais refinery late last year as part of its crude flexibility project. But Iraqi Basrah Heavy flows to China have risen this year from 2023, defying early expectations that the heavy sour grade would be squeezed out by TMX crude. Traders in Asia-Pacific say medium sour grades have been most affected, including US Mars, with Asian imports this year falling to the lowest since the grade started moving to the region in 2017. Stuttering start Demand for TMX crude has not picked up as quickly elsewhere in Asia. Early interest surfaced from India, with private-sector Reliance Industries receiving a 2mn bl cargo of AWB in July, but no crude shipments have left Vancouver for India since then. Indian refiners may be wary of AWB's high TAN and the logistical challenges facing shipments. The July cargo made its way to India after three ship-to-ship transfers and the voyage took nearly two months. Reliance may instead prefer even cheaper Venezuelan crude. Flows to South Korea appear to have dried up after just under 3mn bl of Cold Lake loaded in July-August for the country, with Vortexa data showing no departures for South Korea since. A cargo of Cold Lake was exported in August to Japan, and another in September to Brunei. Interest from Asian refiners other than China and India is likely to be focused on Cold Lake rather than the more acidic AWB, which would be harder to process at their plants. By Fabian Ng TMX Vancouver exports to Asia-Pacific Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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