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Denmark tops 'climate change performance index'

  • Market: Crude oil, Emissions, Oil products
  • 20/11/24

Denmark tops the latest "climate change performance index" (CCPI 2025) published on Wednesday by German non-governmental organisations (NGO) Germanwatch and NewClimate Institute. But the country only manages fourth place, with no nations doing enough to meet its climate targets under the Paris Agreement, the NGOs said.

The CCPI, published annually, monitors the climate action performance of 63 countries and the European Union (EU), which collectively account for more than 90pc of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

"No country deserves to be on the podium, but some countries are doing better than others," co-author Jan Burck from Germanwatch said at the presentation of the index at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Denmark tops the league for the fourth year running, thanks to its steady and comprehensive climate policy, its strong targets and renewables deployment.

Other "high performers" include the UK, which is "back on track" after having seen its ranking plummet: the UK moved up to 6th position from 20th, thanks to the new government's strong climate policy framework, and the country's successful coal phase-out.

But the UK's transition away from oil and gas is progressing too slowly, the NGOs warned.

India, another high performer, managed to climb the ranks to 10th place thanks to strong renewables deployment.

Medium-performing countries include Germany, which has fallen two ranks to 16th despite strong renewables deployment, as the country's buildings and transport sectors struggle to reduce their emissions, and as the country plans to expand its gas consumption, and faces budgetary constraints.

Medium-ranking Brazil, while improving its CCPI ranking since president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took office last year, fell five ranks on the year to 28th, given the country's continuously strong reliance on fossil fuels, and despite lower deforestation rates.

Unlike previous editions, no EU country received an overall "very low" rating. Bulgaria, at 50th, is the worst performing EU country.

The four last-placed countries in the CCPI — Iran (67th) at the bottom, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia — number among the world's largest oil and gas producers.These countries not only emit high volumes of GHG, but also – largely – lack emissions policies or climate regulation, with no discernible shift away from the fossil fuel business model and a proportion of renewables in their respective energy mix that is below 3pc, according to the NGOs.

Co-author Niklas Hoehne from NewClimate said that there are many signs that the world is at a turning point, and that the peak in global emissions is "within reach", though US president-elect Donald Trump could act as a "brake" on the now necessary rapid cuts in emissions. The US occupy an unchanged 57th position.

Burck said that China, falling to 55th from 51st position, faces a "huge" opportunity to gain international recognition, as the country's GHG emissions appear to have almost peaked, and as it experiences an unprecedented boom in renewable energies. What is now needed is a "clear move away from fossil fuels", Burck said. This clear move is not yet apparent, but this could change with the country's upcoming new five-year plan. In this case, China could "quickly" climb up the index, Burck said.


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13/03/25

Dangote refinery buys first cargo of Eq Guinea crude

Dangote refinery buys first cargo of Eq Guinea crude

London, 13 March (Argus) — Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery has bought its first cargo of Equatorial Guinea's medium sweet Ceiba crude, according to sources with knowledge of the matter. Dangote bought the 950,000 bl cargo loading over 12-13 April from BP earlier this week, sources told Argus . Price levels of the deal were kept under wraps. Most Ceiba exports typically go to China. Around 18,000 b/d discharged there last year, while three shipments went to Spain and one to the Netherlands, according to Vortexa data. This year, two cargoes loading in February and March are signalling Zhanjiang in China, according to tracking data. Traders note that buying a Ceiba cargo is part of Dangote's efforts to diversify its crude sources. Last month the refinery bought its first cargo of Algeria's light sweet Saharan Blend crude from trading firm Glencore, which is due to be delivered over 15-20 March. Market sources said Dangote seems to have sourced competitively priced crude from Equatorial Guinea at a time when domestic grades are facing sluggish demand from Nigeria's core European market amid ample supply of cheaper Kazakh-origin light sour CPC Blend, US WTI and Mediterranean sweet crudes. Several European refineries are due to undergo maintenance in April, which is also weighing on demand. Nigeria's state-owned NNPC is currently in negotiations with the Dangote refinery about extending a local currency crude sales arrangement , which involves crude prices being set in dollars and Dangote paying the naira equivalent at a discounted exchange rate. Any changes to the terms of the programme may pressure Dangote to increase the amount of foreign crude in its slate. Refinery sources told Argus in January that Dangote will source at least 50pc of its crude needs on the import market and is building eight storage tanks to facilitate this. By Sanjana Shivdas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Nigeria's port authority raises import tariffs


13/03/25
News
13/03/25

Nigeria's port authority raises import tariffs

London, 13 March (Argus) — The Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) has raised tariffs by 15pc on imports "across board", taking effect on 3 March, according to a document shown to Argus . The move comes as the independently-owned 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery continues to capture domestic market share through aggressive price cuts, pushing imported gasoline below market value in the country. Sources said that Dangote cut ex-rack gasoline prices to 805 naira/litre (52¢/l) today, from between 818-833N/l. The rise in NPA tariffs may add on additional cost pressures onto trading houses shipping gasoline to Nigeria, potentially affecting price competitiveness against Dangote products further. The move would increase product and crude cargo import costs, according to market participants. But one shipping source said the impact would be marginal as current costs are "slim", while one west African crude trader noted that the tariffs would amount to a few cents per barrel and represent a minor rise in freight costs. Port dues in Nigeria are currently around 20¢/bl, the trader added. One shipping source expects oil products imports to continue to flow in, because demand is still there. Nigeria's NNPC previously said the country's gasoline demand is on average around 37,800 t/d. Over half of supplies come from imports, the country's downstream regulator NMDPRA said. According to another shipping source, Dangote supplied around 526,000t of gasoline in the country, making up over half of product supplied. The refinery also supplied 113,000t of gasoil — a third of total total volumes in the country — and half of Nigeria's jet at 28,000t. By George Maher-Bonnett and Sanjana Shivdas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US lube industry wary of tariffs uncertainty


13/03/25
News
13/03/25

US lube industry wary of tariffs uncertainty

London, 13 March (Argus) — The uncertainty around US tariffs could weigh on demand for finished lubricant and base oil, trade body ILMA told Argus . US President Donald Trump has decreed a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminium imports from Canada, a key import source for these materials used in auto manufacturing. The US sources about 70pc of its aluminium imports and around 23pc of its steel imports from its northern neighbour. ILMA chief executive Holly Alfano said the White House recognises that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs "creates a challenging business environment". "A slowdown in auto sales and production due to tariffs could lead to reduced demand for these products," Alfano told Argus. "Manufacturers may postpone investments or expansion plans due to unpredictable costs and market conditions," she said. "If vehicle prices rise due to increased production costs, consumer demand may decline, leading to further reductions in automotive output and associated lubricant consumption." Automotive vehicle production forecasts have fallen to 15.5mn in 2025 since the tariff announcement, down by 250,000 vehicles from the prior estimate by AutoForecast Solutions. This would put output broadly in line with 2024 , stifling growth in finished lubricant demand. US government data show car sales fell by 5pc in 2024, and finished lubricant sales dropped 6pc over the same period. Although lubricant sales are not entirely correlated with new car sales, Alfano noted the auto sector is "a significant consumer of finished lubricants". As it stands the tariffs on steel and aluminium will not now be implemented until 2 April. The White House has said this is to "allow for the flow of parts and sub assembly products into America, to allow American car manufacturers to continue building cars." The US administration is scheduled to host Canadian and Ontario officials today to discuss a possible easing in tariffs. If these talks yield no progress, and if a month is insufficient for supply chains to be reorganised, the tariffs could stunt automotive manufacturing and in turn lubricants needed for these new vehicles. Ontario premier Doug Ford has cautioned the 25pc tariffs could halt the auto manufacturing industry in as little as 10 days. While the US is self-sufficient in terms of its Group II base oils, it is a net importer of Group III, with only 4pc nameplate capacity, and both are key to automotive lubricant production. The US is an importer of Canadian Group III base oils from Petro-Canada's 4,000 b/d plant in Mississauga, Ontario. By Gabriella Twining Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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IEA says trade tensions clouding oil demand outlook


13/03/25
News
13/03/25

IEA says trade tensions clouding oil demand outlook

London, 13 March (Argus) — The IEA today downgraded its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025, noting a deterioration in macroeconomic conditions driven by rising trade tensions. It sees a larger supply surplus as a result, which could be greater still depending on Opec+ policy. The Paris-based agency, in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), sees oil demand rising by 1.03mn b/d to 103.91mn b/d in 2025, down from a projected rise of 1.10mn b/d in its previous OMR. The IEA said recent oil demand data have underwhelmed, and it has cut its growth estimates for the final three months of 2024 and the first three months of this year. US President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on various goods arriving in the US from China, Mexico and Canada, as well as on all imports of steel and aluminium. Some countries have retaliated with tariffs of their own on US imports, raising the prospect of a full-blown trade war. The IEA said US tariffs on Canada and Mexico "may impact flows and prices from the two countries that accounted for roughly 70pc of US crude oil imports last year." But it is still too early to assess the full effects of these trade policies on the wider oil market given the scope and scale of tariffs remain unclear and that negotiations are continuing, the IEA said. For now, the IEA's latest estimates see US demand growth this year slightly higher than its previous forecast. It sees US consumption increasing by 90,000 b/d to 20.40mn b/d, compared with a projected rise of 70,000 b/d in the prior OMR. The downgrades to its global oil demand forecast were mainly driven by India and South Korea. The agency also noted latest US sanctions on Russia and Iran had yet to "significantly disrupt loadings, even as some buyers have scaled back loadings." The IEA's latest balances show global supply exceeding demand by 600,000 b/d in 2025, compared with 450,000 b/d in its previous forecast. It said the surplus could rise to 1mn b/d if Opec+ members continue to raise production beyond April. Eight members of the Opec+ alliance earlier this month agreed to proceed with a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary production cuts over an 18 month period starting in April. The IEA said the actual output increase in April may only be 40,000 b/d, not the 138,000 b/d implied under the Opec+ plan, as most are already exceeding their production targets. The IEA sees global oil supply growing by 1.5mn b/d this year to 104.51mn b/d, compared with projected growth of 1.56mn b/d in its previous report. The agency does not incorporate any further supply increases from Opec+ beyond the planned April rise. The IEA said global observed stocks fell by 40.5mn bl in January, of which 26.1mn bl were products. Preliminary data for February show a rebound in global stocks, lifted by an increase in oil on water, the IEA said. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Opec sticks to demand forecasts despite trade tensions


12/03/25
News
12/03/25

Opec sticks to demand forecasts despite trade tensions

London, 12 March (Argus) — Opec has kept its oil demand growth forecasts unchanged for both 2025 and 2026 on expectations that the global economy will adjust to volatile trade policies. US president Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on various goods arriving in the US from China, Mexico and Canada, as well as on all imports of steel and aluminium. Some countries have retaliated with tariffs of their own on US imports, raising the prospect of a full-blown trade war. But Opec is confident that the global economy can adapt. "Price pressures may weigh on global growth but are unlikely to disrupt overall growth momentum, which remains supported by resilient consumer demand and strong output in major emerging economies," Opec said in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). Opec also said that rising trade among emerging economies could partially offset tariff-related disruptions, but it warned that "downside risks need to be monitored given uncertainties in policy rollout and subsequent effects and impacts". Despite the uncertainty, Opec kept its oil demand forecast for this year and next unchanged for the second month in a row. For this year, the group sees oil demand growing by 1.45mn b/d to 105.2mn b/d, while in 2026 it sees consumption increasing by 1.43mn b/d to 106.63mn b/d. Opec's demand growth forecasts remain somewhat higher than those projected by the IEA and the US' EIA. In terms of supply, the group kept its non-Opec+ liquids growth forecast unchanged at 1mn b/d for both 2025 and 2026, with most of this growth seen coming from the US, Brazil and Canada. Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — rose by 363,000 b/d to 41.011mn b/d in February, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus . Opec puts the call on Opec+ crude at 42.6mn b/d in 2025 and 42.9mn b/d in 2026, unchanged from last month. Eight members of the wider Opec+ alliance earlier this month agreed to start increasing crude output from April, citing "healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook". By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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