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Nigeria restarts Port Harcourt refinery: Update

  • Market: Crude oil, LPG, Oil products
  • 26/11/24

Recasts and adds details throughout

Nigeria's state-owned NNPC said today it has restarted its 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt refinery after three and a half years offline.

Product loadings began today after the plant's smaller, 60,000 b/d capacity crude distillation unit (CDU) came into operation. This gradual restart had been planned by Italian engineering firm Maire Tecnimont, which has been rehabilitating the plant under a $1.5bn contract, although a number of deadlines announced by NNPC have been missed.

Refined products from Port Harcourt will add to the gasoline that has been supplied since September from the 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery. Product imports are likely to fall, an industry source said.

Nigerian downstream regulator NMDPRA's head Farouk Ahmed said products from Port Harcourt will be made available nationwide and would stoke price competition. Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported an average national gasoline price of 1,185/litre (70¢/l) for October, a rise of 88pc on the year and 15pc from September. The price of diesel, which has been deregulated since 2003, was an average N1,441/l in October, NBS said, up by 43pc on the year and by 2pc on the month. The Dangote Group dropped its ex-gantry gasoline prices on Sunday, 24 November, to N970/l from N990/l.

Nigerian importers already appear under pressure to compete with Dangote on product pricing, which the Port Harcourt start-up may exacerbate. A local trader said he has found gasoline trading economics most workable when lifting from Dangote ex-single point mooring (SPM) and delivering to coastal ports such as Port Harcourt and Warri in Nigeria's southeast, where truck deliveries from Dangote would prove uneconomic.

Nigeria's presidency and NMDPRA's Ahmed urged NNPC to now bring back online its 125,000 b/d Warri and 110,000 b/d Kaduna refineries, which have been closed since 2019. NNPC has opened a combined tender for operating and maintaining these. The outcome of a similar tender for Port Harcourt is unclear.

Nigeria would become a net products exporter when Warri and Kaduna come online, NMDPRA's Ahmed said today. A source at the regulator said exports might become vital to Nigerian refiners.

"The patronage for petroleum products is low and Nigeria is oversupplied," the source said, attributing the latest Dangote price cut to competition with imports and weak demand.

The prospect of Port Harcourt running at its nameplate capacity is in doubt, sources said. It would at best reach 40-50pc of capacity, the industry source said, which would focus on mainly local gasoline deliveries.

Port Harcourt was shut in 2020 after several years of low capacity utilisation. NNPC previously said it expects the initial 60,000 b/d phase to produce 12,000 b/d of gasoline, 13,000 b/d of diesel, 8,600 b/d of kerosine, 19,000 b/d of fuel oil and 850 b/d of LPG in the first year of resumed operations.


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11/12/24

Opec trims oil demand growth forecasts again

Opec trims oil demand growth forecasts again

London, 11 December (Argus) — Opec has revised down its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 for a fifth time in a row. In its final Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) of the year, the producer group has cut its 2025 oil demand growth forecast by 90,000 b/d to 1.45mn b/d. This is entirely driven by a downgrade in its demand projection for the Middle East. From the start of this year right up until July, Opec had been forecasting global demand growth of 1.85mn b/d for next year. The group has also lowered its demand growth forecast for this year — by 210,000 b/d to 1.61mn b/d, mostly driven by reduced growth projections in the Middle East, India and the Americas. Up until July, Opec had been predicting that demand would increase by 2.25mn b/d this year. Opec's downward demand growth revisions slightly close the gap with other forecasters such as the IEA and EIA, which project much lower levels of consumption growth. The IEA sees oil demand growing by 920,000 b/d this year and by 990,000 b/d next year, while the EIA projects 890,000 b/d and 1.29mn b/d, respectively. On supply, Opec has kept its non-Opec+ liquids supply growth forecast for next year unchanged at 1.11mn b/d. But it has upgraded its estimate for this year by 50,000 b/d to 1.28mn b/d, underpinned by stronger-than-expected US production. Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — increased by 323,000 b/d to 40.665mn b/d in November, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus . The call on Opec+ crude remains 42.4mn b/d for this year and 42.7mn b/d for next year, according to the MOMR. Opec+ producers agreed earlier this month to delay a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary cuts by three months to April 2025 and to return the full amount over 18 months rather than a year. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil's inflation accelerates to near 5pc in November


10/12/24
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10/12/24

Brazil's inflation accelerates to near 5pc in November

Sao Paulo, 10 December (Argus) — Brazil's headline inflation accelerated to a 14-month high in November, led by gains in food and transportation, according to government statistics agency IBGE. The consumer price index (CPI) rose to an annual 4.87pc in November from 4.76pc in the previous month, IBGE said. Food and beverage costs rose by an annual 7.63pc in November, accounting for much of the monthly increase, following a 6.65pc annual gain in October. Beef costs increased by an annual 15.43pc in November following an 8.33pc annual gain for the prior month. Higher beef costs in the domestic market are related to the Brazilian real's depreciation to the US dollar, with the exchange rate falling to a record-low R6.11/$1 at the end of November. The stronger dollar leads producers to prefer exports over domestic sales. Beef prices rose by 8pc for the month alone. Soybean oil prices rose by 27.75pc over the year. Transportation costs, another major contributor to the monthly acceleration, rose by an annual 3.11pc in November after a 2.48pc gain in October. On a monthly basis, transportation costs rose by 0.89pc in November, reversing a contraction of 0.38pc in October. Housing costs rose by 4pc over the 12-month period. Brazil's central bank last month hiked its target rate to 11.25pc, its second increase off a low of 10.5pc between May and September, to try to head off a resurgence in inflation. It was at a cyclical peak of 13.75pc from August 2022 through July 2023 as it sought to tamp down the post-Covid-19 surge in inflation. Fuel prices rose by an annual 8.78pc in November after a 7.22pc gain in October. Motor fuel costs fell by 0.15pc in November compared with a 0.17pc drop in October — thanks to lower ethanol and gasoline prices. Diesel prices contracted by 2.25pc in the 12-month period. Power costs slowed to an annual 3.46pc in November following a 11.58pc gain in October. Electricity prices contracted by a monthly 6.27pc after a decrease in power tariffs on 1 November. Monthly inflation slowed to 0.39pc in November from 0.56pc in October. The central bank's inflation goal for 2024 is 3pc, with a margin of 1.5pc above or below. By Maria Frazatto and Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico’s CRE lays off officials after reform


10/12/24
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10/12/24

Mexico’s CRE lays off officials after reform

Mexico City, 10 December (Argus) — Mexico's energy regulatory commission (CRE) has dismissed high-ranking officials and other staff shortly after congress approved constitutional amendments to eliminate independent regulators, market sources said. At least two unit chiefs — the heads of the legal and hydrocarbons units — were let go in recent days, sources with close knowledge of the matter told Argus . These positions are now marked as vacant in the CRE's online directory. In addition, seven subunits within the hydrocarbons division — overseeing natural gas, fuel and LPG markets, including storage and transportation — also appear vacant. The CRE did not respond to requests for comment. The CRE's commissioner president Leopoldo Melchi has designated Guadalupe Hernandez, a legal official in the hydrocarbons undersecretary at the energy ministry (Sener), to oversee certain functions, a source said. The layoffs are also expected to extend to the electricity unit, including its chief, Francisco Varela, according to market sources. Yet, these positions are still listed as filled in the online directory. These dismissals follow congress' approval of constitutional amendments to dismantle seven independent regulators, including the CRE and hydrocarbons regulator CNH. While the regulators will continue operating until laws implementing these changes are enacted — expected by early 2025 — the finance ministry has proposed a 33pc budget cut for the CRE and CNH in 2025. Some recent departures are linked to commissioner Luis Linares, who announced in November that he will step down on 1 January 2025. But the recent layoffs may signal a broader restructuring of the energy regulator. Under the amendments, the CRE's functions will be absorbed by a new office within Sener. The specifics of this transition will depend on the upcoming legal framework. Industry experts and companies are calling for the new regulatory bodies to retain technical independence and sufficient funding to oversee energy markets effectively, even after the constitutional changes. By Édgar Sígler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Norway to end new international fossil fuel financing


10/12/24
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10/12/24

Norway to end new international fossil fuel financing

London, 10 December (Argus) — Norway will from January no longer provide public finance for new unabated international fossil fuel projects, in line with a commitment it made in December last year. Norway's export credit agency, Eksfin, provides most of the country's financing for overseas fossil fuel projects. Eksfin provided between 8.78bn Norwegian kroner and 10.98bn NKr ($786mn- 983mn) over July 2021-June 2023 for fossil fuel projects, civil society organisation Oil Change International found. Norway signed the Clean Energy Transition Partnership (CETP) at the UN Cop 28 climate summit in 2023. The CETP aims to shift international public finance "from the unabated fossil fuel energy sector to the clean energy transition". The CETP, which now has 41 signatories, was launched at Cop 26 in 2021, with an initial 39 signatories including most G7 nations and several development banks. Signatories commit to ending new direct public support for overseas unabated fossil fuel projects within a year of joining. Abatement, under the CETP, refers to "a high level of emissions reductions" through operational carbon capture technology or "other effective technologies". It does not count offsets or credits. Australia, which also signed the CETP at Cop 28, said last week that it would no longer finance overseas fossil fuel projects. "Norway is also working to introduce common regulations for financing fossil energy within the international main agreement for state export financing in the OECD", the Norwegian government said today. Norway's policy "helps increase momentum" for an OECD deal that could end $41bn/yr in oil and gas export financing, Oil Change said. Countries are involved in "final negotiations" on the deal today, Oil Change added. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Opec+ crude output rises in November


10/12/24
News
10/12/24

Opec+ crude output rises in November

London, 10 December (Argus) — Opec+ members subject to targets increased their collective crude output by 150,000 b/d in November, marking the alliance's first monthly production rise since March, Argus estimates. Although output increased to 33.55mn b/d last month, it was still 3.97mn b/d below the level the group was producing at when it announced the first of its current round of cuts in October 2022. It was also 300,000 b/d below the group's collective production target for the month. November's increase was mainly driven by Kazakhstan, where output was boosted by the restart of the 400,000 b/d Kashagan project following maintenance in October. Kazakh production rose by 220,000 b/d to 1.56mn b/d last month, leaving the country 90,000 b/d above its official production target. Kazakhstan has been one of the group's biggest overproducers this year, alongside Iraq and Russia. It has repeatedly pledged to compensate for exceeding its targets but has so far largely failed to deliver. Iraq — the group's largest overproducer — has made progress in recent months in reducing its production. Its output in November was again 20,000 b/d below its target at 3.98mn b/d, the same as in October. But it will need further reductions if it is to fully compensate for past overproduction. Compliance with output targets is a key measure of group discipline and crucial to the success of Opec+ production policy. Argus calculates that eight members of the coalition have produced above their targets on average between January and October of this year. Opec+ producers agreed earlier this month to push back a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary cuts by three months to April 2025 and agreed to return the full amount over 18 months rather than a year. Last month's production increase by the entire group — including quota-exempt Iran, Libya and Venezuela — was 350,000 b/d, with total output at 39.03mn b/d. This was mainly driven by Libya, which increased its output by 160,000 b/d to 1.24mn b/d as it continued to ramp up after emerging from a partial oil blockade in early October. Iran's output rebounded by 60,000 b/d to 3.36mn b/d. By Aydin Calik Opec+ crude production mn b/d Nov Oct* Nov target† ± target Opec 9 21.12 21.18 21.23 -0.11 Non-Opec 9 12.43 12.22 12.62 -0.19 Total 33.55 33.40 33.85 -0.30 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Opec wellhead production mn b/d Nov Oct* Nov target† ± target Saudi Arabia 8.93 8.95 8.98 -0.05 Iraq 3.98 3.98 4.00 -0.02 Kuwait 2.40 2.43 2.41 -0.01 UAE 2.97 2.93 2.91 0.06 Algeria 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.00 Nigeria 1.40 1.42 1.50 -0.10 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.25 0.27 0.28 -0.03 Gabon 0.22 0.23 0.17 0.05 Equatorial Guinea 0.06 0.06 0.07 -0.01 Opec 9 21.12 21.18 21.23 -0.11 Iran 3.36 3.30 na na Libya 1.24 1.08 na na Venezuela 0.88 0.90 na na Total Opec 12^ 26.60 26.46 na na *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Nov Oct* Nov target† ± target Russia 8.97 8.97 8.98 -0.01 Oman 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.00 Azerbaijan 0.48 0.48 0.55 -0.07 Kazakhstan 1.56 1.34 1.47 0.09 Malaysia 0.33 0.33 0.40 -0.07 Bahrain 0.17 0.18 0.20 -0.03 Brunei 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.00 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.06 0.06 0.12 -0.06 Total non-Opec 12.43 12.22 12.62 -0.19 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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