Prices of sulphur delivered to China are expected to lose momentum in the coming weeks, following lower volumes of phosphates exports.
Sulphur prices have rallied over the past few months, with delivered granular sulphur prices to China rising $73.5/t, or 69pc, from the start of the third quarter to $179.5/t cfr as of 28 November, as a result of robust demand meeting tight supply in the sulphur market. Delivered prices are expected to now peak in the coming weeks, before softening.
Scheduled refinery maintenance in Saudi Arabia, and port congestion at a few ports significantly reduced spot availability in the third quarter, and product moving from east to west of Suez during the fourth quarter also shortened supply to cover demand from east of Suez markets. Meanwhile an increase in sulphur burning activity in countries like India and Indonesia supported demand, with the latter purchasing as much as 350,000-370,000t of granular sulphur in just one round of buying.
Domestic Chinese ex-works prices also rose by Yn507.5/t, or 48pc, over the same period to Yn1,565/t ex-works, equivalent to around $175.6/t cfr. However, talk of a potential halt DAP and MAP exports from December may soften domestic sulphur prices instead. Fertilizer producers are also expected to continue taking a cautious approach to raw material buying, and moderate any stockpiling while fertilizer exports are curbed.
China's port stocks have been on a declining trend in recent weeks, as a low level of import bookings in the spot market during October and November has limited the replenishing of inventories, and end users have consumed some tonnes from existing stockpiles. Port inventories have dropped from 2.59mn t on 13 September to 2.18mn t on 29 November. This is expected to lead to some stock build from import buying in the run up to the lunar new year starting on 28 January 2025. This holiday typically marks the point by which fertilizer producers aim to have sufficient stocks to enable them to slow buying over the holiday period.
Demand from southern Africa and Indonesia for December and January cargoes remains open, and buyers are expected to accept higher announced prices from the Middle East. Qatar's Muntajat/QatarEnergy increased its Qatar Sulphur Price (QSP) by $27/t to $163/t fob Ras Laffan/Mesaieed for December. Offer prices for delivered markets have reflected a rising cost level, with Indonesian offers against in the week of the 28 November ranging from the high-$180s/t cfr to the low $190s/t cfr for December-lifting Middle East parcels.
Higher sulphur burning operations in both north Africa and Indonesia continue to drive demand in the short term. In north Africa, Morocco's OCP is ramping up its latest sulphur burner, and this is expected to contribute around 550,000 t/yr of sulphur demand at capacity. This is in addition to the sulphur burner with 417,000 t/yr capacity that started in the second quarter of 2024. The actual capacity usage is expected to be driven by market realities in the phosphate fertilizer market, with the producer typically tailoring capacity usage to market dynamics and demand levels.
In Indonesia nickel-driven sulphur demand is also expected to continue growing. Indonesian sulphur imports for the year are expected to exceed the 3mn t threshold from 2.66mn t last year, following an increase in PT QMB New Energy's sulphur burning as part of its HPAL Phase 2 operations. This will contribute around 333,000 t/yr of additional sulphur demand when operating at full capacity, data show.
