Strong export estimates for Australian and Ukrainian rapeseed and canola could offset lower projected levels from Canada, but EU crushers are wary about a supply shortfall for the rest of their 2024-25 crop year.
The European Commission forecasts EU 27 rapeseed production at around 17mn t for 2024-25, down from average of 18.2mnt in the previous four crop years.
With the EU 27 average rapeseed crush at around 25mn t, based on data from vegetable oil association Fediol, the bloc will need to find 7mn t of rapeseed and canola on the import market for its needs, which include RSO production for transformation into biodiesel.
Australia, Ukraine to fill the gap?
Australia, which typically delivers 50-70pc of its canola exports to the EU, is forecast to export 4.1mn t in 2024-25, according to the country's agriculture department Abares.
Estimates for EU rapeseed imports from major exporter Ukraine vary. The USDA FAS Kyiv earlier this year forecast rapeseed exports from the war-torn country at around 3.6mn t in 2024/25 — a 22pc increase from 3mn t in 2023-24 partly due to expectations of decreased domestic crush levels.
Argus estimates this slightly lower, at 3.4mn t — a 6pc increase from its 2023-24 export forecast of 3.22mn t — all of which is likely to make its way to EU countries.
But canola production in Canada, one of the EU's key suppliers, is forecast by Statistics Canada at the lowest since 2021-22 at 17.8mn t, probably resulting in an export shortfall compared with previous years.
Increased domestic crush levels and rising demand in non-EU countries such as China, Japan and Mexico, which "generally have a willingness to pay more for quality product" according to the USDA — referring to non-GMO treated canola — could reduce EU-bound flows in the coming months.
Current- and new-crop RSO in steep backwardation
The forward structure between rapeseed oil (RSO) fob Dutch mill current-crop 2024-25 contracts — comprising spot 5-40 days loading and February-March-April (FMA) and May-June-July (MJJ) RSO strips — and the August-September-October (ASO) new-crop contract for 2025 has moved into an unusually steep backwardation in recent months, driven by concerns about rapeseed availability before the start of the 2025-26 crop year.
Argus' assessments for the ASO strip were at an average discount of around €80/t ($84/t) to FMA and MJJ contracts as of 13 December. This compares with a curve that saw current- versus new-crop contracts in contango through December 2022 and 2023.
This means biodiesel producers will probably have to continue to work with thin margins. Although rapeseed oil methyl ester (RME) fob ARA range prices have followed RSO prices higher, comparatively larger gains on the feedstock outlay have pressured operations.
The price spread between spot RME and RSO prices averaged $150/t in the first of half of December, compared with around $200/t in the same period of 2023.
Looming agricultural trade barriers
Global agricultural trade barriers that have either begun or are planned will be decisive drivers of global vegetable oil prices and trade flows in the new year.
China said in September it would start an anti-dumping investigation into canola from Canada. Canola exports from Canada to China are usually between 2mn-4mnt.
Indonesia plans to introduce a B40 biodiesel blending mandate in 2025 and has already introduced export permit requirements on palm oil residues, which has sent Malaysian palm oil futures to multi-year highs.
In the US, president-elect Donald Trump's announcement about the imposition of 25pc tariffs on all US imports from Canada and Mexico has lead to volatility in the wider vegetable oil complex as well.