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US issues 45Z tax guidance for low-carbon fuels

  • Market: Coal, Crude oil, Emissions, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 10/01/25

US producers of low-carbon fuels can start claiming the "45Z" tax credit providing up to $1/USG for road use and $1.75/USG for aviation, following the US Treasury Department's release today of proposed guidance for the credit.

The guidance includes proposed regulations and other tools to determine the eligibility of fuels for the 45Z tax credit, which was created by the Inflation Reduction Act to replace a suite of incentives for biofuels that expired at the end of last year. Biofuel producers have been clamoring for guidance from the US Treasury Department so they can start claiming the tax credit, which is available for fuels produced from 1 January 2025 through the end of 2027.

"This guidance will help put America on the cutting-edge of future innovation in aviation and renewable fuel while also lowering transportation costs for consumers," US deputy treasury secretary Wally Adeymo said. "Decarbonizing transportation and lowering costs is a win-win for America."

The creation of the 45Z tax credit has already prompted a change in US biofuels markets by shifting federal subsidies from blenders to producers. Because the value of tax credit increases for fuels with the lowest lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it could encourage refiners to source more waste feedstocks such as used cooking oil, rather than conventional crop-based feedstocks.

While the guidance is still just a proposal, taxpayers are able to "immediately" use the guidance to claim the 45Z tax credit, until Treasury issues additional guidance, an administration official said.

The guidance on 45Z released today affirms that only the producer for the fuel is eligible to claim the credit, not blenders. To be eligible for the tax credit, the fuel must have a "practical or commercial fitness for use in a highway vehicle or aircraft" by itself or when blended into a mixture, Treasury said. Marine diesel and methanol suitable for highway or aircraft use are also eligible for 45Z, as is renewable natural gas that can be used as a transportation fuel.

Treasury also released an "annual emissions rate table" offering providers a methodology for determining the lifecycle GHG of fuel. Treasury said a key emissions model from the US Department of Energy, called 45ZCF-GREET, used to calculate the value of the 45Z tax credit is anticipated to be released today, although industry officials said it may be delayed until next week.

Treasury said it intends to propose regulations at "a future date" for calculating the GHG emissions benefits of "climate smart agriculture" practices for "cultivating domestic corn, soybeans, and sorghum as feedstocks" for fuel. Those regulations could lower the calculated lifecycle emissions of fuel from those crop-based feedstocks and increase the relative 45Z tax credit.

US biofuel producers said they are still awaiting key details on the 45Z tax credit, including the update to the GREET model. Among the outstanding questions is if the guidance released today provides "enough certainty to negotiate feedstock and fuel offtake agreements going forward", said the Clean Fuels America Alliance, an industry group that represents the biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel industries.

It is unclear how president-elect Donald Trump intends to approach this proposed approach for the 45Z credit, which will be subject to a 90-day public comment period. Trump has promised to "rescind all unspent funds" from the Inflation Reduction Act. But outright repealing 45Z would leave biofuels producers and farmers without a subsidy they say is needed to sustain growth, after the expiration last year of a $1/USG blender tax credit and a tax credit of up to $1.75/USG for sustainable aviation fuel. Biofuel and soybean groups were unsuccessful in a push last year to extend the expiring biofuel tax credits.

The 45Z credit is likely to be debated in Congress this year, as Republicans consider repealing parts of the Inflation Reduction Act. House Republicans have already asked for input on revisions to the 45Z credit, signaling they could modify the incentive. In a tightly divided Congress, farm-state lawmakers may hold enough leverage to ensure some type of biofuel incentive — and potentially one friendlier to agricultural producers than 45Z — survives.


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22/04/25

Tariff ‘shock’ prompts IMF to cut growth outlook

Tariff ‘shock’ prompts IMF to cut growth outlook

Washington, 22 April (Argus) — Global economic growth is expected to be significantly lower in 2025-26 than previously anticipated because of the steep tariffs President Donald Trump is pursuing for most imports and the uncertainty his policies are generating, the IMF said. The IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook released today, forecasts the global economy will grow by 2.8pc in 2025 and 3pc in 2026. That compares with the 3.3pc/yr growth for 2025-26 that the IMF was expecting just three months ago. Today's forecast is based on the tariffs that Trump had in place as of 4 April, before he paused steep tariffs on most countries and escalated tarrifs on China. These barriers had pushed up the effective US tariff rate to levels "not seen in a century", the IMF said. While Trump has altered his tariff levels repeatedly, he has imposed an across-the-board 10pc tariff on most imports, a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum, a 25pc tariff on some imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 145pc tariff on most imports from China. "This on its own is a major negative shock to growth," the IMF said. "The unpredictability with which these measures have been unfolding also has a negative impact on economic activity and the outlook." IMF forecasts are used by many economists to model oil demand projections. The US and its closest trading partners appear to be among those hardest hit by tariffs and corresponding trade countermeasures. The IMF's baseline scenario forecasts US growth at 1.8pc this year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the forecast the IMF released in January, reflecting higher policy uncertainty, trade tensions and softer demand outlook. Mexico's economy is now projected to shrink by 0.3pc in 2025, rather than grow by 1.4pc, while Canada's growth is forecast at 1.4pc in 2025, down from 2pc. The release of the IMF report comes as Trump has given no indications of a shift in thinking on tariffs, which he says are generating billions of dollars for the US and will prompt companies to relocate their manufacturing capacity to the US. "THE BUSINESSMEN WHO CRITICIZE TARIFFS ARE BAD AT BUSINESS, BUT REALLY BAD AT POLITICS. THEY DON'T UNDERSTAND OR REALIZE THAT I AM THE GREATEST FRIEND THAT AMERICAN CAPITALISM HAS EVER HAD!" Trump wrote on social media on 20 April. The next day, major stock markets indexes declined by more than 2pc, continuing their crash from when Trump began announcing his tariff policies. Trump on 21 April escalated his attacks against US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell for failing to lower interest rates as Trump has demanded. There could be a "SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late" — his nickname for Powell — "a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW," Trump wrote. The IMF also ratcheted down its expectations for the Chinese economy. China's economy is expected to grow by 4pc/yr in 2025-26, down from the 4.6 and 4.5pc, respectively, the IMF was anticipating in January. The euro area is forecast to grow by 0.8pc in 2025 and 1.2pc in 2026, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the IMF's previous forecast. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Coal India, DVC to build 1.6GW of thermal power plants


22/04/25
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22/04/25

Coal India, DVC to build 1.6GW of thermal power plants

Singapore, 22 April (Argus) — State-owned producer Coal India (CIL) plans to develop 1.6GW of coal-fired power capacity under a joint venture with state-controlled utility Damodar Valley (DVC) to meet rising demand and expand its non-coal revenue. India's top coal producer CIL plans to set up two brownfield thermal power units of 800MW each with DVC in the eastern Indian state of Jharkhand, the company announced on 21 April. The brownfield expansion will be carried out at DVC's 500MW Chandrapura thermal power station. The 50:50 joint venture plans to invest 165bn rupees ($1.94bn) towards the expansion. The expanded capacity will source coal from the regional mines of CIL's subsidiary companies, Bharat Coking Coal and Central Coalfields. The firms did not disclose the timeline for the completion of this expansion. CIL has geared up to construct several super-critical or ultra super-critical pit-head thermal power plants to support the nation's requirement for affordable and reliable energy, the company said in its annual report for the fiscal year ended 31 March 2024. CIL announced plans to set up two brownfield thermal power units of 800MW each with state-owned utility Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Utpadan Nigam (RRVUNL) at the latter's existing Kalisindh thermal project in the northern Indian state of Rajasthan in September 2024. India's installed thermal capacity stood at 247GW as of 31 March, with coal accounting for 215GW of this, and the rest being lignite, diesel and natural gas, according to data from the country's Central Electricity Authority (CEA). The country's total power capacity stood at 475GW as of 31 March. India plans to raise its electricity generation capacity by more than fourfold over the next two decades to cater to rising domestic demand, although the focus would be on boosting power production from cleaner sources of energy as the country takes steps to cut emissions. New Delhi is aiming to achieve a generation capacity of 2,100GW by 2047, power minister Manohar Lal Khattar said at the launch of National Electricity Plan for power transmission in October 2024. By Ajay Modi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US offers Trinidad cushion from Vz gas sanctions


21/04/25
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21/04/25

US offers Trinidad cushion from Vz gas sanctions

Kingston, 21 April (Argus) — Trinidad and Tobago and the US have agreed to seek ways to prevent Washington's sanctions on Venezuela's energy sector from harming the Caribbean country's natural gas production and energy security, both governments said. The administration of President Donald Trump revoked licenses earlier this month that had been granted by former president Joe Biden's government to gas-short Trinidad to develop the Dragon and Cocuina gas fields that straddle the maritime border with Venezuela. "Both sides agreed that we are going to work very closely to find a solution that achieves US objectives regarding Venezuela without harming Trinidad," the US State Department and Trinidad prime minister Stuart Young said. But neither government indicated how Trinidad would find alternative sources of feedstock in the short term to lift output of midstream and downstream products. Young and US secretary of state Marco Rubio discussed Trinidad's concerns in an 18 April telephone conversation, Young's office said. "Any outcomes of sanctions upon the Maduro regime and Venezuela is in no way indicative of our relationship with Trinidad and Tobago and the value we place on it," the state department said. Trinidad regards the cross-border gas fields as future sources of feedstock to counter a fall in domestic output that has suppressed LNG, petrochemicals and fertilizer production. It has struggled to recover gas flow since November 2017, following a long slide from a 4.3 Bcf/d peak in 2010. Trinidad's 2024 natural gas production of 2.53 Bcf/d was 2pc less than in the previous year, according to the latest data from the energy ministry. The US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (Ofac) had cleared the way for Trinidad and Venezuela to develop the 4.3 trillion cf Dragon field. Ofac also granted BP and Trinidad's state-owned gas company NGC a license to develop the cross-border Cocuina-Manakin field, which contains at least 1 trillion cf. The Trump administration revoked licenses both this year. By Canute James Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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IMO incentive to shape bio-bunker choices: Correction


21/04/25
News
21/04/25

IMO incentive to shape bio-bunker choices: Correction

Corrects B30 pricing in paragraph 5. New York, 21 April (Argus) — An International Maritime Organization (IMO) proposal for ship owners who exceed emissions reduction targets to earn surplus credits will play a key role in biofuel bunkering options going forward. The price of these credits will help determine whether B30 or B100 becomes the preferred bio-bunker fuel for vessels not powered by LNG or methanol. It will also influence whether biofuel adoption is accelerated or delayed beyond 2032. At the conclusion of its meeting earlier this month the IMO proposed a dual-incentive mechanism to curb marine GHG emissions starting in 2028. The system combines penalties for non-compliance with financial incentives for over-compliance, aiming to shift ship owner behavior through both "stick" and "carrot" measures. As the "carrot", ship owners whose emissions fall below the IMO's stricter compliance target will receive surplus credits, which can be traded on the open market. The "stick" will introduce a two-tier penalty system. If emissions fall between the base and direct GHG emissions tiers, vessel operators will pay a fixed penalty of $100/t CO2-equivalent. Ship owners whose emissions exceed the looser, tier 2, base target will incur a penalty of $380/t CO2e. Both tiers tighten annually through 2035. The overcompliance credits will be traded on the open market. It is unlikely that they will exceed the cost of the tier 2 penalty of $380/t CO2e. Argus modeled two surplus credit price scenarios — $70/t and $250/t CO2e — to assess their impact on bunker fuel economics. Assessments from 10-17 April showed Singapore very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) at $481/t, Singapore B30 at $740/t, and Chinese used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome), or B100, at $1,143/t (see charts). If the outright prices remain flat, in both scenarios, VLSFO would incur tier 1 and tier 2 penalties, raising its effective cost to around $563/t in 2028. B30 in both scenarios would receive credits putting its price at $653/t and $715/t respectively. In the high surplus credit scenario, B100 would earn roughly $580/t in credits, bringing its net cost to about $563/t, on par with VLSFO, and more competitive than B30. In the low surplus credit scenario, B100 would earn just $162/t in credits, lowering its cost to approximately $980/t, well above VLSFO. At these spot prices, and $250/t CO2e surplus credit, B100 would remain the cheapest fuel option through 2035. At $70/t CO2e surplus credit, B30 becomes cost-competitive with VLSFO only after 2032. Ultimately, the market value of IMO over-compliance credits will be a major factor in determining the timing and extent of global biofuel adoption in the marine sector. By Stefka Wechsler Scenario 1, $70/t surplus credit $/t Scenario 2, $250/t surplus credit $/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Washington seeks input on GHG market changes


21/04/25
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21/04/25

Washington seeks input on GHG market changes

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