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Trump to declare energy 'emergency': Update 2

  • Market: Coal, Crude oil, Emissions, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 21/01/25

Updates with details throughout

President Donald Trump today signed an executive order declaring a "national energy emergency" and said he plans to impose 25pc tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico on 1 February.

Returning to the White House for a second term, Trump signed a series of executive orders on energy and trade that he said will restore "common sense" to US policy. His orders aim to expedite permitting of energy infrastructure, tackle inflation, roll back climate programs put in place under former president Joe Biden and pursue a "drill, baby, drill" energy policy.

In declaring a national energy emergency, Trump's order contends the Biden administration left a "precariously inadequate and intermittent energy supply, and an increasingly unreliable grid" that required swift action.

Trump also froze all federal regulations, placed a temporary hold on hiring non-military federal workers, rescinded 78 Biden executive actions and memoranda and began rolling back Biden's climate legacy.

"I'm immediately withdrawing from the unfair, one-sided Paris climate accord rip-off," Trump said at a rally held after his second inaugural ceremony.

Trump's declaration of an "energy emergency" could bolster the legal rationale for some of energy policies and plans to expedite permitting. Trump also said he plans to end the "Green New Deal" — a reference to climate programs enacted under Biden — and revoke an "electric vehicle mandate" he said is threatening the US auto manufacturing sector.

Trump also vowed to begin an "overhaul" of the US trade system to protect domestic workers and reiterated his support for tariffs, which he sees as a way to raise government revenue and support domestic manufacturing.

"Tariffs are going to make us rich as hell," Trump said. They are "going to bring our country's businesses back that left us".

While Trump is reiterating his threat to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico, oil industry officials have warned such a move could disrupt the nearly 4mn b/d of crude the US imports from Canada.

Trump stopped short of promised to erect tariffs on all US imports, saying: "We're not ready for that."

On foreign policy, Trump said the US would "reclaim its rightful place" as the most powerful country in the world and reiterated plans to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America.

Trump also promised still-unspecified actions to take control of the US-built Panama Canal in response to what he says has been unfair treatment of US ships, a claim that Panamanian president Jose Raul Mulino has rejected.

"We gave it to Panama, and we're taking it back," Trump said during his second inaugural address.

Trump signed an order to ease drilling restrictions in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska, while also prioritizing the development of the proposed 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG export terminal.

Trump also said he wants to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which is at 55pc of its capacity with 394mn bl of crude in storage, "right to the top". Refilling the SPR would require the US Congress to appropriate $32bn at current prices, to offset the costs of canceling 100mn bl of upcoming mandatory crude sales and buying about 300mn bl of crude.

Trump signed an order to rescind a series of climate-related orders Biden had issued, measures the new administration says places "undue burdens" on energy production.

And he imposed a temporary moratorium on leasing acreage in federal waters for wind projects. "We're not going to do the wind thing," Trump said. That drew an outcry from offshore wind advocacy group Turn Forward, whose executive director Hillary Bright said an emergency should require unleashing "all necessary sources of American energy — including offshore wind".

During his campaign, Trump promised to cut the price of energy by 50pc within 12 months of taking office. But with regular grade gasoline averaging close to $3/USG and Henry Hub natural gas prices less $4/mmBtu this month, such a dramatic cut in prices would be difficult to achieve without causing major disruptions to industry. Environmentalists and Democratic-led states are also preparing to file lawsuits challenging Trump's deregulatory actions, a strategy they used during his first term with mixed success.

Trump was sworn in in a relatively small ceremony inside the US Capitol, after calling off a more traditional, outdoor inauguration because of temperatures that were hovering around 23° F. Among those in attendance was Telsa chief executive Elon Musk, who spent more than $250mn to help elect Trump and is chairing a cost-cutting advisory panel.

After being sworn in, Trump formally nominated his cabinet members, leaving it up to the Republican-controlled US Senate to hold confirmation votes. Trump also named Republicans to lead 15 independent agencies.

Trump named Mark Christie as chairman of the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission; Mark Uyeda as acting chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission; and Patrick Fuchs as chair of the US Surface Transportation Board. Caroline Pham became acting chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission through a vote of its members.


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Opec+ eight agree accelerated hike for June: Update


03/05/25
News
03/05/25

Opec+ eight agree accelerated hike for June: Update

London, 3 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ members has agreed to accelerate, for a second consecutive month, their plan to unwind some of their production cuts, the Opec secretariat said Saturday. As it did for May, the group will again raise its collective output target by 411,000 b/d in June, three times as much as it had planned in its original roadmap to gradually unwind 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts by the middle of next year. The original plan envisaged a slow and steady unwind over 18 months from April, with monthly increments of about 137,000 b/d. But today's decision means that the eight — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — will have unwound almost half of the 2.2mn b/d cut in the space of just three months. The decision to maintain this accelerated pace into June is somewhat surprising, given the weakness in oil prices and the outlook for the global economy. The eight's decision last month to deliver a three-in-one hike in May was seen as a key reason for the recent slide in oil prices, alongside US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Front month Ice Brent futures have fallen by about $13/bl since early April to stand at just over $61/bl. But the eight today pointed to "current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories" as a key factor in its latest decision. It reiterated, as it has in the past, that the gradual monthly increases "may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions." As was the case for May, delegates said that the main driver for the June hike was again a desire to send a message to those countries that have persistently breached their production targets since the start of last year — most notably Kazakhstan and Iraq, which each have significant overproduction to compensate for through the middle of next year. "This measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation," the secretariat said. This group of eight is due to next meet on 1 June to review market conditions and decide on July production levels. By Nader Itayim, Aydin Calik and Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Opec+ eight to agree another accelerated hike for June


03/05/25
News
03/05/25

Opec+ eight to agree another accelerated hike for June

London, 3 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ members look set to today to accelerate, for a second consecutive month, their plan to unwind some of their production cuts, four delegates told Argus . As it did for May, the group would again raise its collective output target by 411,000 b/d in June, three times as much as it had planned in its original roadmap to gradually unwind 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts by the middle of next year. The original plan envisaged a slow and steady unwind over 18 months from April, with monthly increments of about 137,000 b/d. But today's decision would mean that the eight — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — will have unwound almost half of the 2.2mn b/d cut in the space of just three months. The decision to maintain this accelerated pace into June would be somewhat surprising, particularly given the weakness in oil prices and the outlook for the global economy. The eight's decision last month to deliver a three-in-one hike in May was seen as a key reason for the recent slide in oil prices, alongside US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Front month Ice Brent futures have fallen by about $13/bl since early April to stand at just over $61/bl. While Opec+ has said that it is acting to support an expected rise in summer demand, the decision to speed up the output increases once again appears to be driven by a desire to send a message to countries that have persistently breached their production targets — most notably Kazakhstan and Iraq. By Aydin Calik, Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico bets on new contract model to lift gas output


02/05/25
News
02/05/25

Mexico bets on new contract model to lift gas output

Mexico City, 2 May (Argus) — Mexico's push to raise domestic gas output to 5 Bcf/d by 2030 depends on a new shared participation model designed to attract private investment, with four strategic gas fields prioritized as tenders begin. State-owned Pemex this week released the detailed guidelines for the mixed production scheme, first introduced in February. The model guarantees Pemex at least a 40pc share of production and gives the company wide discretion to set contract terms and choose the bidding process — including no-bid awards. But interest in the new contracts is expected to center on Mexican firms with close ties to President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration, such as Carlos Slim's Grupo Carso, according to market sources. "With these guidelines, Pemex can finally pick and choose who they want, how they want," said Miriam Grunstein, a former adviser to energy regulator CRE and senior partner at Brilliant Energy Consulting. "The downside is they are likely to turn to Mexican firms that lack the technical experience for complex projects, rather than international companies with the know-how for deep-water or unconventional plays," Grunstein said. "This scheme isn't made for companies like BHP, Total, or Eni," added Eduardo Prud'homme, former technical director at Cenagas and co-partner at consultancy Gadex. "Pemex doesn't want operators as partners. Though it is perfect for Carso." A relative newcomer to the upstream sector, Carso is one of the government's most important contractors for infrastructure projects and stands to gain on future business whether or not the upstream partnerships succeed. Prud'homme doubts international majors looking for a one-off deal would be willing to take on the heavily regulated, high-risk projects when the maximum stake is 60pc. "If you fail, Pemex will not share the loss," said Prud'homme. "If you succeed, Pemex decides how much to share." Pemex management said it plans to launch 17 projects under the new scheme this year. It remains unclear how many of these will focus on gas development. Still, gas is a core focus. Pemex's 2025–2030 business plan allocates Ps238bn (US$12.1bn) to gas projects in pursuit of the 5 Bcf/d goal. Four key fields — Burgos, Quesqui, Ixachi and Bakte — are expected to provide 54pc of total projected output. Carso is already active, partnering with Pemex on the complex deep-water Lakach gas project, which is now expected to migrate from a service contract to the new mixed contract model. Slim began renegotiations in February after the model was announced. Carso has also expanded upstream, buying into the oil-rich Zama project in December. In March, Sheinbaum confirmed the government is in talks with Carso to partner on Ixachi. Turning the tide Still, gas output continues to decline. An analysis by Mexican think tank IMCO found that Pemex and its farmout partners this year posted their lowest first-quarter gas production in 15 years. In the first quarter, Pemex produced 4.408 Bcf/d of gas, down by 8pc from the same period in 2024 and 12pc lower compared with the same quarter 2023. The 367 MMcf/d annual decline marks the steepest first-quarter drop since 2018, when output fell by 536 MMcf/d year over year. On the positive side, Pemex's natural gas production in March ticked 0.3pc higher from the previous month to 4.39 Bcf/d – marking the second consecutive month of increases after February output was up 1.3pc from January. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Eight Opec+ members weigh further acceleration


02/05/25
News
02/05/25

Eight Opec+ members weigh further acceleration

Dubai, 2 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ producers meet on 3 May to decide whether to repeat last month's surprise move to add extra oil to an increasingly weak market. The main motivation for the group of eight's decision to triple the size of their output increase for May remains, suggesting that a repeat could be on the cards for June. As the dust began to settle on last month's decision, it became clear that raising their combined output target by 411,000 b/d in one month, rather than the scheduled 137,000 b/d, was rooted not only in stronger fundamentals, as the official communique suggests, but also in a desire to send a message to those countries that have persistently breached their production targets. The main culprits are Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have consistently failed to keep their production in check since the start of last year (see graph). The two are left with a lot to do by way of compensating for those excess barrels between now and the middle of next year (see graph). Russia, too, has overproduced during that period, but to a much lesser degree relative to its overall output. That persistent overproduction has been a source of deep frustration among other countries in the group of eight — principally the core of Opec's Mideast Gulf members — that have "sacrificed", in the words of one delegate, to adhere to their targets. April's decision was a nod to those that have sacrificed and a sharp warning to Kazakhstan and Iraq to do better and to do so quickly. Two delegates stressed to Argus at the time that the coming weeks would be critical for Baghdad and Astana to show that they were serious about abiding by their quotas. Failure to do so could trigger another "surprise" move for June, they said, possibly even another three-in-one hike. It was little surprise, then, that some ill-timed comments by Kazakh energy minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov on 23 April — in which he explicitly said Astana's national interests take priority over its Opec+ commitments, and that the country simply "cannot" reduce output — triggered serious speculation about whether the eight may repeat last month's decision. March data from Iraq, too, were not ideal, in that while they showed that Iraq did produce below quota, its efforts to compensate fell well short. Timing is everything Some in the group of eight may well be tempted to go down that route, thinking a second consecutive "shock" could deliver the desired wake-up call that the first did not. Two delegate sources confirmed to Argus that another 411,000 b/d target increase for June remains a distinct possibility. But such a course of action would be risky. Crude is already trading $12/bl below where it was when the group last met, and demand-side concerns are again on the rise because of the potential impact of US trade tariffs. The Opec secretariat and the IEA downgraded 2025 oil demand growth forecasts in their latest oil market outlooks. Opec revised its forecast down to 1.3mn b/d from 1.45mn b/d in its previous report. The IEA revised down its forecast by a sizeable 310,000 b/d to 730,000 b/d for 2025, despite "robust" consumption in the first quarter. It downgraded its forecast for April-December by 400,000 b/d. Another three-in-one hike for June would be "difficult" to imagine in this market, one delegate says. With that said, the eight's options include a "standard" 137,000 b/d rise to the group's collective target for June, in line with the original schedule, or, at a push, a two-in-one hike. That would not only send that internal message to the least compliant of the group, but also act as a show of good faith towards US president Donald Trump ahead of his visit to Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha on 13-16 May. By Nader Itayim, Bachar Halabi and Aydin Calik Opec+ overproducers Opec+ compensation plan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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