Sardinian renewable outlook bleak for 2030

Market: Electricity
23/01/25

The Italian island of Sardinia introduced restrictive measures on new renewable developments at the end of last year, probably exacerbating the projected gap between installed capacity and 2030 climate targets.

Sardinia had 3.6GW of installed renewable capacity as of December, data from Italian transmission system operator (TSO) Terna show, with solar accounting for almost half. But the island will need this to rise to 6.2GW by 2030 to meet climate targets laid out in Italy's national energy and climate plan (NECP).

Renewable capacity increased by around 360MW on the year in 2024. If additions continued at the same pace over the next six years, the island would fall short of targets by around 400MW. But the pace may even slow owing to Sardinia's prohibitive legal framework for new renewable developments.

Terna as of last month had received around 770 requests to connect solar, onshore and offshore wind plants to Sardinia's grid for a total capacity of 52GW, well above what Rome has targeted for the island. But shortly after the Italian government approved a renewables support scheme aimed at speeding up project authorisations, Sardinia — an autonomous region — introduced an 18-month moratorium on the construction of renewable plants. This was followed by Sardinia's council limiting suitable areas for renewable plants to just 1pc of its territory, mainly by appealing to national laws on landscape protection.

Under its NECP, Italy will need to reach 131.3GW of renewable capacity by 2030 to be in line with EU climate targets. The country's renewable capacity was 76.6GW as of December, with combined solar, wind and hydro generation accounting for just over 50pc of the power mix in 2024. Italy is also due to wean off coal-fired generation this year, with Sardinia's phase-out extended to 2028 owing to the island's heavy reliance on coal for power generation. Sardinia currently has two operational coal-fired plants — Italian utility Enel's 590MW Sulcis and Czech firm EP Produzione's 600MW Fiume Santo.

"Based on historical data, it will not be possible to phase out coal by 2028," environmental group Legambiente president Marta Battaglia told Argus. Battaglia raised concerns about the legislation's lack of clarity in defining suitable areas for renewables, and whether projects that have already been approved but not yet started construction will be blocked.

EP Produzione in March 2023 announced plans to replace the Fiume Santo plant with a 1GW renewable energy complex, which would include various low-carbon technologies and a combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plant. A 100MW battery energy and storage project and a 10MW solar unit in the energy park have already been approved, but EP Produzione is currently examining the decree on suitable areas to check if these projects qualify under the new criteria, the company told Argus.

Sardinia's transition to renewable sources also depends on a reliable grid connection to the Italian mainland. The island is currently connected via the 300MW Sacoi2 — which also links to the French island of Corsica — and 1GW Sapei sub-sea cables. The Italian and French TSOs recently reached a cost-sharing agreement to increase Sacoi2 to 400MW by 2029. And the European Investment Bank is supporting Terna in developing the 1GW Tyrrhenian link between Sardinia, Sicily and the Italian mainland, which is expected to be operational by 2028.

Sardinia is typically a net exporter to Italy's mainland, with an average of almost 340MW directed to the central-south zone over 2024. This is owed to the significantly higher power demand in the central-south zone at 5.6GW in 2024 — with a gap of 2.5GW between demand and supply — compared with Sardinia's demand at 970MW and output at 1.4GW. Assuming the island's power demand will rise to 1.3GW by 2030 — as outlined by Terna in a possible scenario —and renewable capacity will increase at recent rates over the coming years,flows may switch after the expected shutdown of the two remaining coal-fired plants in 2028. Sardinian renewable generation would fail to meet around 425MW of its demand,assuming the average load factor recorded in recent years.

By Ilenia Reale

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