The prospect of the US imposing 25pc tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico would most likely have the greatest impact on US Atlantic coast motor fuel markets.
President Donald Trump repeated plans to impose the tariffs this weekend, although he said crude may be exempted from the plan.
But a crude exemption would not matter in the case of Irving Oil's 320,000 b/d Saint John, New Brunswick, refinery, which is a regular source of gasoline and diesel to the US' upper Atlantic coast markets. The US imported roughly 595,000 b/d of oil products from Canada in October, according to the latest Energy Information Administration data, most of it bound for the Atlantic coast.
New York Harbor spot market gasoline prices are currently around $2/USG, meaning a 25pc tariff on Canadian imports could up that price by as much as 50¢/USG. This could prompt buyers in New England or other East coast markets to look to other supply options. Canadian refiners could also start sending their product to west Africa or Latin America.
In the US midcontinent, as much as 4.25mn b/d of US midcontinent refining capacity relies on heavy sour Canadian crudes for up to 70pc of their supplies. In theory, US midcontinent refiners could run lighter, US-produced grades. But there are relatively few pipelines serving the midcontinent with such grades and they would be much less profitable to refine compared to a pre-tariff WCS barrel.
Chicago gasoline spot prices were just under $2/USG today, so a 25pc tariffs would also add 50¢/USG to prices. Chicago Buckeye Complex ultra low sulphur diesel (ULSD) prices were at $2.18/USG today while West Shore/Badger ULSD prices below that at $2.15/USG.
Imports of Mexican refined products should be less of an issue as Mexico sent only 180,000 b/d of products to the US in October, according to the latest data.
Counter tariffs on crude and oil products by Mexico or Canada would also be an issue for US refiners and blenders.
US refiner Valero said today that the tariffs could cause a 10pc cut in refinery runs depending on how long the tariffs go and how fast they are implemented.