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Trump tariffs most likely to bite US east coast market

  • Market: Oil products
  • 31/01/25

The prospect of the US imposing 25pc tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico would most likely have the greatest impact on US Atlantic coast motor fuel markets.

President Donald Trump repeated plans to impose the tariffs this weekend, although he said crude may be exempted from the plan.

But a crude exemption would not matter in the case of Irving Oil's 320,000 b/d Saint John, New Brunswick, refinery, which is a regular source of gasoline and diesel to the US' upper Atlantic coast markets. The US imported roughly 595,000 b/d of oil products from Canada in October, according to the latest Energy Information Administration data, most of it bound for the Atlantic coast.

New York Harbor spot market gasoline prices are currently around $2/USG, meaning a 25pc tariff on Canadian imports could up that price by as much as 50¢/USG. This could prompt buyers in New England or other East coast markets to look to other supply options. Canadian refiners could also start sending their product to west Africa or Latin America.

In the US midcontinent, as much as 4.25mn b/d of US midcontinent refining capacity relies on heavy sour Canadian crudes for up to 70pc of their supplies. In theory, US midcontinent refiners could run lighter, US-produced grades. But there are relatively few pipelines serving the midcontinent with such grades and they would be much less profitable to refine compared to a pre-tariff WCS barrel. 

Chicago gasoline spot prices were just under $2/USG today, so a 25pc tariffs would also add 50¢/USG to prices. Chicago Buckeye Complex ultra low sulphur diesel (ULSD) prices were at $2.18/USG today while West Shore/Badger ULSD prices below that at $2.15/USG.

Imports of Mexican refined products should be less of an issue as Mexico sent only 180,000 b/d of products to the US in October, according to the latest data.

Counter tariffs on crude and oil products by Mexico or Canada would also be an issue for US refiners and blenders.

US refiner Valero said today that the tariffs could cause a 10pc cut in refinery runs depending on how long the tariffs go and how fast they are implemented.


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05/03/25

UK govt consults on ‘clean energy future’ for North Sea

UK govt consults on ‘clean energy future’ for North Sea

London, 5 March (Argus) — The UK government has launched a consultation on the North Sea's "clean energy future", seeking to balance "continued demand for oil and gas" with the natural decline of the North Sea basin, the country's energy security and climate science. The government has proposed an end to new onshore oil and gas licences in England — as onshore licensing is a devolved matter — and once again confirmed its manifesto pledge for no new oil or gas licences for North Sea exploration. It also confirmed a previous commitment to end the so-called windfall tax on oil and gas producers in 2030. Further oil and gas licences "would not meaningfully increase UK production levels, nor would they change the UK's status as a net importer of oil and gas", the government said. It flagged the North Sea basin's maturity, which means that an absence of new licences makes only "a marginal overall difference to future North Sea production". The "vast majority of future production is expected to come from producing fields or fields already being developed on existing licences", the government said. It noted that while offshore licensing rounds have resulted in up to 100 permits each time, under 10pc of recently issued licences "have progressed to active production". But its halt on new exploration licences would not preclude any licence extensions being granted, the government said. It aims to provide "certainty to industry about the lifespan of oil and gas projects by committing to maintain existing fields for their lifetime". The decision does not affect the issuing of new gas or carbon storage licences, it added. Focus on 1.5°C The consultation also doubles down on the government's previous commitments to "clean power" by 2030 — which would entail a small role for gas-fired power generation, of under 5pc — and its determination to be a leader in climate action. "The science is clear that the world needs to take urgent action and that current plans for global production of oil and gas are not compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C," the government said. The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit global warming to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels and preferably to 1.5°C. The government has requested views on its plans to ensure a "prosperous and sustainable transition for oil and gas" and to make the UK a "clean energy superpower", focused on technologies such as offshore wind, hydrogen and carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS). This will boost the UK's economy and energy security, the government said. "Clean energy" is key for energy security, as a reliance on fossil fuels leaves the UK at "the mercy of global energy markets", it added. "CCUS will be a critical component of the UK's energy transition," the government said. It also noted the geological advantage the UK holds for CO2 storage. There is "significant potential for CO2 import", likely from Europe, it said. The government has also sought extensive feedback on the transition for the country's oil and gas workforce. An "offshore renewables workforce" could stand at between 70,000 and 138,000 in 2030, it said, while oil and gas jobs are set to decrease, alongside the North Sea's fossil fuel production. Today's consultation will close on 30 April. And the government will publish its final guidance on an updated environmental framework for oil and gas "in good time", it said. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Vietnam's bitumen imports from Middle East rise in 2024


05/03/25
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05/03/25

Vietnam's bitumen imports from Middle East rise in 2024

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Indonesia plans to build new 500,000 b/d oil refinery


05/03/25
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05/03/25

Indonesia plans to build new 500,000 b/d oil refinery

Singapore, 5 March (Argus) — Indonesia plans to build an oil refinery with a planned capacity of approximately 500,000 b/d, as part of the country's push to develop its downstream sectors to ensure energy security. The refinery will be able to process domestic and imported crude oil, and will produce up to about 532,000 b/d of various oil products, according to the ministry of energy and mineral resources (ESDM). The construction of the refinery will require investments of up to $12.5bn, and it will help to reduce Indonesia's dependence on imports, said the ESDM. No details on timeline or location were provided. It is unclear how the new refinery fits with Indonesia's existing downstream expansion plans, many of which have stalled. The country has not built a new refinery since 1994, leaving it reliant on imports to meet demand for oil products, notably gasoline. Several new projects have been touted in recent years, including a joint venture between state-owned Pertamina and Russian firm Rosneft for a 300,000 b/d refinery and petrochemical plant at Tuban in east Java, but have yet to reach a final investment decision. The country's president Prabowo Subianto has set a target for reviving Indonesia's oil output to 900,000-1mn b/d by 2028-29. "We still have a lot of oil," said energy minister Bahlil Lahadalia last month, encouraging the use of enhanced oil recovery and urging exploration wells to be upgraded to production wells. The country's oil production currently stands at around 600,000 b/d , with state-owned refiner Pertamina accounting for 400,000 b/d of this, while the country's consumption amounts to more than 1.5mn b/d. Developing DME Another downstream initiative that the ESDM is planning is the acceleration of the development of dimethyl ether (DME) through coal gasification, to use it as a substitute for LPG and reduce imports. The development of the DME industry will "no longer depend on foreign investors," said Bahlil, adding that it will instead rely on domestic resources and capital, "which will be implemented through government policies." Indonesia already has the raw materials as well as the offtakers, while the technology, money and capital expenditure can all come from the government and domestic private sector, said Bahlil, so Indonesia does not have to be "dependent on other parties." Indonesia has agreed to provide $40bn worth of funding to 21 first-phase downstream projects. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US tariffs prompt Canada to eye Europe's diesel market


04/03/25
News
04/03/25

US tariffs prompt Canada to eye Europe's diesel market

London, 4 March (Argus) — Washington's 10pc tariff on energy imports from Canada has prompted Canadian refiners to consider selling diesel to Europe, according to a source with knowledge of the matter. The 10pc tariff came into effect on 4 March, alongside 25pc tariffs on non-energy imports from Canada and 25pc tariffs on all goods from Mexico. Some market participants suggest the need to adjust Canadian diesel quality could hinder exports to Europe. Canadian specifications are more lax than EU specifications in some respects, but comparable challenges are overcome as a matter of routine when the EU imports from the US. Canada exported 350,000t of diesel and other gasoil to Europe in 2024, according to Vortexa. This accounted for 8pc of the country's total exports, whereas 73pc went to the US. European market participants note that US importers could look to Europe to replace Canadian gasoline — but price signals are muddied by a seasonal shift in specifications this week. Front-month Nymex Rbob futures surged to a $10.47/bl premium to Eurobob oxy barges on 3 March, from only 77¢/bl on 28 February, but this largely reflects the switch to stricter evaporability rules. Canada is the primary supplier of seaborne gasoline and diesel to the US — especially to the Atlantic coast. Cargoes loading from US Gulf coast refiners are disadvantaged competitively by the Jones Act, which puts strenuous rules around the vessels that can transport cargoes from one US port to another. One indirect impact on European product markets could follow if US Gulf coast refineries cut crude runs in response to higher prices for Mexican and Canadian crude. Valero and PBF have both indicated they would consider run cuts. If the US Gulf coast refined less crude, European traders would likely find stronger arbitrage economics to export gasoline to the US but a weaker arbitrage to import diesel from the US. By Benedict George, George Maher-Bonnet and Josh Michalowski Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US Group II base oil margins rise on firm demand


04/03/25
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04/03/25

US Group II base oil margins rise on firm demand

Houston, 4 March (Argus) — Domestic Group II base oil margins rose for the week ended 28 February as spot prices increased on the back of firmer seasonal demand. The Argus Group II N100 premium to four-week average low-sulphur vacuum gas oil (VGO) rose to $1.01/USG from 98¢/USG last week. Margins remained above year-earlier levels of 86¢/USG. The Argus Group II N100 premium to four-week average US Gulf coast (USGC) diesel was 75¢/USG, up from 74¢/USG the week prior. Margins remained above year-earlier levels of 44¢/USG. Domestic Group II light-grade spot prices edged up on firmer demand from seasonal factors. Demand typically picks up leading into the summer because of increased driving activity. Supplies also tightened as Chevron is planning a 3-4 week turnaround at its 25,000 b/d Group II base oil unit in Pascagoula, Mississippi, in March and April. Four-week average VGO prices rose on reduced supply availability, which is partially attributed to multiple refinery turnarounds. Several turnarounds are expected to wrap up by the end of March and ease some constraint on VGO volumes. The low-sulphur VGO premium to four-week average WTI crude widened to $17.49/bl from $16.78/bl last week. Weaker diesel and gasoline markets are keeping VGO margins depressed. This is pushing more VGO toward base oil production. By Karly Lamm Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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