Trump defends U-turn on Mexico tariffs

Market: Crude oil, Natural gas
03/02/25

US president Donald Trump insisted today that his abrupt decision to delay by a month the decision to impose 25pc tariffs on imports from Mexico had nothing to do with the reaction of financial markets or criticism from the normally reliable quarters of his support.

Trump's decision-making on Mexico tariffs so far looks like a signature move from his first term — escalatory rhetoric and action followed by de-escalation after extracting concessions that do not appear to be significant. Trump said today he agreed to postpone the 4 February implementation of 25pc tariffs on Mexican goods by one month, after receiving assurances from Mexico president Claduia Sheinbaum that she would immediately reinforce the shared border with 10,000 national guard troops.

Trump said there would be negotiations in the coming weeks between Mexican officials and US secretary of state Marco Rubio, secretary of the treasury Scott Bessent and secretary of commerce Howard Lutnick to prevent the tariffs from going into effect.

Trump's plans to impose import taxes on Mexico, Canada and China weighed on stock markets early on Monday and boosted oil prices and the US dollar. The effects of his tariffs and any retaliatory actions by Mexico would have been felt on both sides of the border and would have severely curtailed the flow of energy and other commodities between the two countries.

"There was no blinking", Trump said in a free-flowing gaggle with reporters at the White House. "She did agree to 10,000 soldiers on the border. I would say that's a lot."

Trump in 2019 similarly threatened to impose 5pc tariffs on all Mexican goods. He relented when former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said Mexico would deploy 21,000 national guard troops to contain the flow of migrants toward the US.

"Dumbest Trade War" or deal pathway?

Trump, who invited the press into the Oval Office today to observe the signing of an executive order establishing a sovereign wealth fund for the US, heaped praise on News Corp owner Rupert Murdoch, who was invited as a guest at the ceremony.

But Trump pushed back against News Corp-owned Wall Street Journal's editorial board, which described his tariffs on US neighbors as "the Dumbest Trade War".

"I don't agree with [Murdoch] on many things," Trump said. "The Wall Street Journal is wrong, because, very simply, every single country that you're writing about right now is dying to make a deal."

Canada, which is also subject to a 25pc tariffs beginning tomorrow, so far has not made a deal with the US. Trump said he spoke with Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau this morning and would speak again at 3pm ET.

"We're going to talk again at three o'clock, right after my next meeting, and we'll see what happens," Trump said. "I can't tell you what's going to happen."

The US has yet to offer details on implementing tariffs or to break down which Canadian energy commodities would be subject to a lower, 10pc import tax. The White House executive order listed the exemptions as "crude oil, natural gas, lease condensates, natural gas liquids, refined petroleum products, uranium, coal, biofuels, geothermal heat, the kinetic movement of flowing water and critical minerals".

Trudeau's government has unveiled a more detailed list of US imports, worth C$30bn ($21bn), that would be subject to retaliatory tariffs, to be followed by an additional C$125bn of products later this month.

Trump, who imposed a lower, 10pc, tariff on imports from China, said today that imports from that country would be subject to higher taxes soon. But he added, "I will be speaking to China probably over the next 24 hours."

Trump today again proposed a joint US-China ownership of social media platform TikTok, the latest of many issues that divide the two countries. He also repeated his allegation that China "is involved with the Panama Canal" and that the US would wrest back control over the waterway.

In addition to pushback over tariffs, Trump today faced harsh criticism from Democratic lawmakers after he ordered the shutdown of the US Agency for International Development, which is responsible for disbursing US humanitarian aid and carrying out development programs globally. Senior Democratic lawmakers joined the staff of the agency in front of its headquarters, where security guards were preventing anyone from entering.

"I love the concept [of that agency], but they turned out to be radical left lunatics," Trump said.

By Haik Gugarats

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13/03/25

Nigeria's port authority raises import tariffs

London, 13 March (Argus) — The Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) has raised tariffs by 15pc on imports "across board", taking effect on 3 March, according to a document shown to Argus . The move comes as the independently-owned 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery continues to capture domestic market share through aggressive price cuts, pushing imported gasoline below market value in the country. Sources said that Dangote cut ex-rack gasoline prices to 805 naira/litre (52¢/l) today, from between 818-833N/l. The rise in NPA tariffs may add on additional cost pressures onto trading houses shipping gasoline to Nigeria, potentially affecting price competitiveness against Dangote products further. The move would increase product and crude cargo import costs, according to market participants. But one shipping source said the impact would be marginal as current costs are "slim", while one west African crude trader noted that the tariffs would amount to a few cents per barrel and represent a minor rise in freight costs. Port dues in Nigeria are currently around 20¢/bl, the trader added. One shipping source expects oil products imports to continue to flow in, because demand is still there. Nigeria's NNPC previously said the country's gasoline demand is on average around 37,800 t/d. Over half of supplies come from imports, the country's downstream regulator NMDPRA said. According to another shipping source, Dangote supplied around 526,000t of gasoline in the country, making up over half of product supplied. The refinery also supplied 113,000t of gasoil — a third of total total volumes in the country — and half of Nigeria's jet at 28,000t. By George Maher-Bonnett and Sanjana Shivdas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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IEA says trade tensions clouding oil demand outlook

13/03/25

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13/03/25

IEA says trade tensions clouding oil demand outlook

London, 13 March (Argus) — The IEA today downgraded its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025, noting a deterioration in macroeconomic conditions driven by rising trade tensions. It sees a larger supply surplus as a result, which could be greater still depending on Opec+ policy. The Paris-based agency, in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), sees oil demand rising by 1.03mn b/d to 103.91mn b/d in 2025, down from a projected rise of 1.10mn b/d in its previous OMR. The IEA said recent oil demand data have underwhelmed, and it has cut its growth estimates for the final three months of 2024 and the first three months of this year. US President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on various goods arriving in the US from China, Mexico and Canada, as well as on all imports of steel and aluminium. Some countries have retaliated with tariffs of their own on US imports, raising the prospect of a full-blown trade war. The IEA said US tariffs on Canada and Mexico "may impact flows and prices from the two countries that accounted for roughly 70pc of US crude oil imports last year." But it is still too early to assess the full effects of these trade policies on the wider oil market given the scope and scale of tariffs remain unclear and that negotiations are continuing, the IEA said. For now, the IEA's latest estimates see US demand growth this year slightly higher than its previous forecast. It sees US consumption increasing by 90,000 b/d to 20.40mn b/d, compared with a projected rise of 70,000 b/d in the prior OMR. The downgrades to its global oil demand forecast were mainly driven by India and South Korea. The agency also noted latest US sanctions on Russia and Iran had yet to "significantly disrupt loadings, even as some buyers have scaled back loadings." The IEA's latest balances show global supply exceeding demand by 600,000 b/d in 2025, compared with 450,000 b/d in its previous forecast. It said the surplus could rise to 1mn b/d if Opec+ members continue to raise production beyond April. Eight members of the Opec+ alliance earlier this month agreed to proceed with a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary production cuts over an 18 month period starting in April. The IEA said the actual output increase in April may only be 40,000 b/d, not the 138,000 b/d implied under the Opec+ plan, as most are already exceeding their production targets. The IEA sees global oil supply growing by 1.5mn b/d this year to 104.51mn b/d, compared with projected growth of 1.56mn b/d in its previous report. The agency does not incorporate any further supply increases from Opec+ beyond the planned April rise. The IEA said global observed stocks fell by 40.5mn bl in January, of which 26.1mn bl were products. Preliminary data for February show a rebound in global stocks, lifted by an increase in oil on water, the IEA said. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US gas producers gear up for return to growth

12/03/25

News

12/03/25

US gas producers gear up for return to growth

Firms have changed their tune since the start of the winter, as weather-related factors have increased the appeal of boosting output, writes Julian Hast New York, 12 March (Argus) — Some large US natural gas-focused producers plan to boost their output in the coming years, in response to higher prices and booming US LNG export capacity. This would reverse a years-long trend among US producers of holding output steady to avoid oversupply, which drags down prices. The largest producer of US gas by volume, Expand Energy, aims to lift production by 3.4pc from last year to 7.1bn ft³/d (201mn m³/d) in 2025 and to boost drilling to bring on line 300mn ft³/d of sidelined production capacity that could hit the market in 2026. Fellow US gas producer Comstock Resources plans to add drilling rigs in the Haynesville shale of east Texas and northern Louisiana this year in a bid to offset output declines triggered by low prices in 2024 and bring new output on line when needed. US firm Range Resources, which operates in the Appalachian region, expects to boost production by 19pc from 2024 to 2.6bn ft³/d by 2027, with most of this growth set to take place in 2026-27, when the majority of the planned new LNG export terminals on the US Gulf coast are slated to begin operations. Range's sharp upward growth trajectory represents a break from its recent past, given that its 2024 output was just 2.5pc higher than in 2020. US gas producers appear poised to raise output by about 2bn ft³/d combined over the next 12-24 months, to refill inventories that have been depleted by a cold 2024-25 winter season and to keep up with booming LNG exports, according to investment bank RBC Capital Markets. But if every US gas producer grows at same the rate that Range Resources envisages, "the macro backdrop could quickly deteriorate", US bank Tudor Pickering Holt said in a note to clients last month. US gas inventories were at an 80bn ft³ deficit to the five-year average at the end of February, compared with a 215bn ft³ surplus on 1 November, according to US government agency the EIA. US gas prices now have now climbed above the marginal breakeven price of the industry, Expand Energy chief executive Nick Dell'Osso says, putting the US breakeven US gas price at about $3.50/mn Btu. This means "supply will ultimately show up and compete", he says. Expand Energy and fellow US producer EQT, which made the same estimation of the industry breakeven price early last year, say their own breakeven figures are lower because of their ample acreage in the Marcellus and Utica shale formations of Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, where production costs are lower. Nymex gas futures prices at the US benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana for delivery in 2026 settled at $4.38/mn Btu on 7 March, up from $3.91/mn Btu at the start of this year. Fair-weather friend The recent growth plans of US producers stand in contrast with many producers' reluctance to boost output earlier this winter, in response to weather-driven shifts in supply and demand. "You don't want to grow for a season" but rather "grow for something that is durable over several years", Dell'Osso said in January. And the production plans of gas-focused firms may end up being overshadowed by those of crude-focused players in the Permian basin of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. These are set to remain the main drivers of production growth in the coming months, thanks to new gas pipeline infrastructure connecting associated gas supply to end markets near the US Gulf coast. Total US marketed gas production is forecast to increase to 114.7bn ft³/d this year and 117.9bn ft³/d in 2026, from 113.1bn ft³/d in 2024, the EIA says. Permian basin output is expected to account for 75pc, or 3.6bn ft³/d, of the additional production by 2026, with output from the basin increasing by 7pc/yr in 2025-26. This would be slower than the 14pc/yr recorded in 2022-24 but would still make it the US' fastest-growing production area. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil's Marquise Ambiental invests in 6 RNG plants

12/03/25

News

12/03/25

Brazil's Marquise Ambiental invests in 6 RNG plants

Sao Paulo, 12 March (Argus) — Brazilian landfill company Marquise Ambiental will invest R400mn ($68mn) in six biogas plants with an estimated total output of around 40.8mn m³/yr. The six plants will be in southeastern Sao Paulo state, northeastern Ceara and Rio Grande do Norte states, and northern Rondonia and Amazonas states, the company said. The Amazonas state plant, in the capital Manaus, is set to produce up to 18mn m³/yr of biogas and should prevent 300,000 metric tonnes (t) of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) from being released into the atmosphere. The Sao Paulo plant is forecast to produce 4.6mn m³/yr, while the Ceara plant is set to produce 2.8mn m³/yr. Meanwhile, the Rio Grande do Norte state plants, Braseco and Potiguar, are forecast to have output of 9mn m³/yr and 4mn m³/yr, respectively. The Rondonia plant is set to have an output of 2.1mn m³/yr, according to the company. The investment will happen in the next three years, but the company did not disclose when operations at each plant will begin. Marquise Ambiental has one 36.5mn m³/yr plant operating in Ceara , dubbed GNR Fortaleza. It is a joint venture between the firm and gas company Ecometano. By Maria Frazatto Planned Marquise biogas plants m³/yr Name State Capacity Osasco Sao Paulo 4,687,000 Braseco Rio Grande do Norte 9,007,000 Potiguar Rio Grande do Norte 4,097,000 Aquiraz Ceara 2,853,000 Manaus Amazonas 18,092,000 Porto Velho Rondonia 2,160,000 Total 40,896,000 Marquise Ambiental Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Low gas storage bookings may drive German stockdraw

12/03/25

News

12/03/25

Low gas storage bookings may drive German stockdraw

London, 12 March (Argus) — Low gas storage bookings for gas year 2025-26 may already be driving withdrawals and may continue to do so in the coming months. German stocks were at about 79.8TWh on Tuesday morning, filling 31.8pc of capacity. That was well below the 131TWh three-year average for this date and the 171TWh in storage a year earlier. Stronger withdrawals this winter were at least partly driven by higher heating demand as well as slower European imports of LNG and Russian pipeline gas compared with a year earlier. But market dynamics for upcoming storage years may also be encouraging withdrawals. A backwardated forward curve, with prompt prices holding substantially higher than contracts in winter 2025-26 and further along the curve, has incentivised the stockdraw over maintaining stocks. That said, prices for the summer quarters have risen above the prompt recently, so some firms could have a slight incentive to keep gas in storage past the end of this storage year. But the inverted THE summer-winter spread has disincentivised capacity bookings for the upcoming storage year. Summer prices holding above winter prices removes the commercial incentive to inject or book storage space profitably. And storage operators have struggled to sell space in recent months, with many auctions closing unsuccessfully as bidders cannot profitably hedge injections for the contract period. In the prevailing environment, only about 55pc of all German storage space has been booked for the 2025-26 storage year, leaving at least 103.5TWh of capacity unallocated, data show ( see data and download ). By contrast, firms had booked 99.7pc of German capacity for the 2024-25 storage year. Storage sites with low or no bookings might be driving withdrawals, as firms near the end of some storage contracts. At sites where some capacity is booked for the next storage year, firms could sell their stocks to other capacity holders if there is no financial incentive for withdrawing it. But at the six sites with no 2025-26 bookings yet — Rehden, Wolfersberg, Harsefeld, Frankenthal, the VNG-operated Jemgum caverns and SEFE's Speicherzone Nord — firms cannot sell gas in-store as there are no available buyers to transfer gas-in-store to, incentivising firms to empty stocks ahead of the summer 2025 filling season. Consequently, sites with no booked capacity for the upcoming storage year currently are filled less than most other German sites ( see graph ). The remaining sites suggests a correlation between 2025-26 bookings and stocks, as sites with a lower proportion of capacity booked for the next storage year tend to be less full, following stronger withdrawals this winter ( see withdrawals trajectory graph ). Stock dilemma Before the 2024-25 storage year ends on 31 March, any capacity holder left with stocks must decide either to withdraw that gas or sell it to a company holding 2025-26 capacity, if there is sufficient storage space booked at the individual site. Barring additional capacity sales, that suggests that about 7TWh may need to be withdrawn on contractual grounds alone, not accounting for weather or withdrawals from fully-booked sites. About 5.6TWh of that is stored at Rehden, Germany's largest storage site, whose operator SEFE Storage allows capacity holders to withdraw 10pc of their stocks up to two months after the storage year ends . Rehden was filled to 12.1pc of capacity on Tuesday morning, leaving about 1TWh to be withdrawn even if all capacity holders utilise that 10pc allowance. Four of the six sites with no 2025-26 bookings are depleted fields or aquifers, which have lower withdrawal and injection rates than salt caverns and offer capacity holders less flexibility to react to unusual price spreads. Caverns often offer faster injection and withdrawal speeds, so could still be used economically in summer by, for example, reacting to price volatility rather than seasonal spreads. Faster cycling also allows cavern capacity holders to wait longer before starting pre-winter injections, potentially allowing them to wait until the summer-winter spread normalises before injecting. Slower-cycling sites such as aquifers and depleted fields are usually drawn down more consistently in winter as their slower injections and withdrawals reduce their flexibility. That said, some operators might need to inject into caverns to maintain their structural integrity. This might stop withdrawals or possibly support a minimum of injections ahead of or early in the filling season. German storage operator Uniper Energy Storage bought some gas to store as de-facto cushion gas at its Etzel EGL and Etzel ESE sites last week to comply with German law. Restrictions on minimum pressure are enforced by mining authorities and can differ by site, storage operators have told Argus . By Lucas Waelbroeck Boix and Till Stehr Storage bookings next year vs current fill level % Fill level trajectories grouped by site type % Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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