BP promises strategy reset after sharp drop in profit

Market: Crude oil, Natural gas, Oil products
11/02/25

BP today promised to "fundamentally reset" its strategy later this month after reporting a drop in underlying profit last year.

The company alluded to what the reset might entail, noting that last year it had "laid the foundations for growth" by committing capital to new oil and gas projects and "refocusing" its investments in low-carbon assets. Details of the strategy shift will be outlined at a capital markets day for investors on 26 February.

Key actions in 2024 included taking a final investment decision on the 80,000 b/d Kaskida oil field in the US Gulf of Mexico and raising its exposure to biofuels in Brazil. The company also took steps via a joint venture with Japanese utility Jera that will see it commit less capital to its wind energy investments.

BP reported an underlying replacement cost profit — excluding inventory effects and one-off items — of $1.2bn for the fourth quarter of 2024, compared with $3bn a year earlier. For the full year, underlying replacement cost profit fell by 36pc compared with 2023 to $8.9bn, while cash flow from operations dropped to $27.3bn from $32bn.

The company benefited from higher oil and gas production last year — up by 2pc on 2023 at 2.36mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d). But lower prices, a drop in refining margins and lower contributions from both oil and gas trading weighed on profitability.

BP said it expects upstream production to be lower this year and refining margins "broadly flat". It expects a similar level of refinery maintenance in 2025, with the work "heavily weighted towards the first half" and the second quarter in particular.

For now, BP is sticking with its share repurchasing programme, announcing a further $1.75bn of share buybacks for the fourth quarter. It has maintained its quarterly dividend at 8¢/share.

The company's capital expenditure remained steady at $16.2bn last year. It will provide guidance on this year's investment budget at the strategy day later this month.

By Jon Mainwaring

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

13/03/25

Dangote refinery buys first cargo of Eq Guinea crude

London, 13 March (Argus) — Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery has bought its first cargo of Equatorial Guinea's medium sweet Ceiba crude, according to sources with knowledge of the matter. Dangote bought the 950,000 bl cargo loading over 12-13 April from BP earlier this week, sources told Argus . Price levels of the deal were kept under wraps. Most Ceiba exports typically go to China. Around 18,000 b/d discharged there last year, while three shipments went to Spain and one to the Netherlands, according to Vortexa data. This year, two cargoes loading in February and March are signalling Zhanjiang in China, according to tracking data. Traders note that buying a Ceiba cargo is part of Dangote's efforts to diversify its crude sources. Last month the refinery bought its first cargo of Algeria's light sweet Saharan Blend crude from trading firm Glencore, which is due to be delivered over 15-20 March. Market sources said Dangote seems to have sourced competitively priced crude from Equatorial Guinea at a time when domestic grades are facing sluggish demand from Nigeria's core European market amid ample supply of cheaper Kazakh-origin light sour CPC Blend, US WTI and Mediterranean sweet crudes. Several European refineries are due to undergo maintenance in April, which is also weighing on demand. Nigeria's state-owned NNPC is currently in negotiations with the Dangote refinery about extending a local currency crude sales arrangement , which involves crude prices being set in dollars and Dangote paying the naira equivalent at a discounted exchange rate. Any changes to the terms of the programme may pressure Dangote to increase the amount of foreign crude in its slate. Refinery sources told Argus in January that Dangote will source at least 50pc of its crude needs on the import market and is building eight storage tanks to facilitate this. By Sanjana Shivdas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

Nigeria's port authority raises import tariffs

13/03/25

News

13/03/25

Nigeria's port authority raises import tariffs

London, 13 March (Argus) — The Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) has raised tariffs by 15pc on imports "across board", taking effect on 3 March, according to a document shown to Argus . The move comes as the independently-owned 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery continues to capture domestic market share through aggressive price cuts, pushing imported gasoline below market value in the country. Sources said that Dangote cut ex-rack gasoline prices to 805 naira/litre (52¢/l) today, from between 818-833N/l. The rise in NPA tariffs may add on additional cost pressures onto trading houses shipping gasoline to Nigeria, potentially affecting price competitiveness against Dangote products further. The move would increase product and crude cargo import costs, according to market participants. But one shipping source said the impact would be marginal as current costs are "slim", while one west African crude trader noted that the tariffs would amount to a few cents per barrel and represent a minor rise in freight costs. Port dues in Nigeria are currently around 20¢/bl, the trader added. One shipping source expects oil products imports to continue to flow in, because demand is still there. Nigeria's NNPC previously said the country's gasoline demand is on average around 37,800 t/d. Over half of supplies come from imports, the country's downstream regulator NMDPRA said. According to another shipping source, Dangote supplied around 526,000t of gasoline in the country, making up over half of product supplied. The refinery also supplied 113,000t of gasoil — a third of total total volumes in the country — and half of Nigeria's jet at 28,000t. By George Maher-Bonnett and Sanjana Shivdas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US lube industry wary of tariffs uncertainty

13/03/25

News

13/03/25

US lube industry wary of tariffs uncertainty

London, 13 March (Argus) — The uncertainty around US tariffs could weigh on demand for finished lubricant and base oil, trade body ILMA told Argus . US President Donald Trump has decreed a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminium imports from Canada, a key import source for these materials used in auto manufacturing. The US sources about 70pc of its aluminium imports and around 23pc of its steel imports from its northern neighbour. ILMA chief executive Holly Alfano said the White House recognises that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs "creates a challenging business environment". "A slowdown in auto sales and production due to tariffs could lead to reduced demand for these products," Alfano told Argus. "Manufacturers may postpone investments or expansion plans due to unpredictable costs and market conditions," she said. "If vehicle prices rise due to increased production costs, consumer demand may decline, leading to further reductions in automotive output and associated lubricant consumption." Automotive vehicle production forecasts have fallen to 15.5mn in 2025 since the tariff announcement, down by 250,000 vehicles from the prior estimate by AutoForecast Solutions. This would put output broadly in line with 2024 , stifling growth in finished lubricant demand. US government data show car sales fell by 5pc in 2024, and finished lubricant sales dropped 6pc over the same period. Although lubricant sales are not entirely correlated with new car sales, Alfano noted the auto sector is "a significant consumer of finished lubricants". As it stands the tariffs on steel and aluminium will not now be implemented until 2 April. The White House has said this is to "allow for the flow of parts and sub assembly products into America, to allow American car manufacturers to continue building cars." The US administration is scheduled to host Canadian and Ontario officials today to discuss a possible easing in tariffs. If these talks yield no progress, and if a month is insufficient for supply chains to be reorganised, the tariffs could stunt automotive manufacturing and in turn lubricants needed for these new vehicles. Ontario premier Doug Ford has cautioned the 25pc tariffs could halt the auto manufacturing industry in as little as 10 days. While the US is self-sufficient in terms of its Group II base oils, it is a net importer of Group III, with only 4pc nameplate capacity, and both are key to automotive lubricant production. The US is an importer of Canadian Group III base oils from Petro-Canada's 4,000 b/d plant in Mississauga, Ontario. By Gabriella Twining Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

IEA says trade tensions clouding oil demand outlook

13/03/25

News

13/03/25

IEA says trade tensions clouding oil demand outlook

London, 13 March (Argus) — The IEA today downgraded its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025, noting a deterioration in macroeconomic conditions driven by rising trade tensions. It sees a larger supply surplus as a result, which could be greater still depending on Opec+ policy. The Paris-based agency, in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), sees oil demand rising by 1.03mn b/d to 103.91mn b/d in 2025, down from a projected rise of 1.10mn b/d in its previous OMR. The IEA said recent oil demand data have underwhelmed, and it has cut its growth estimates for the final three months of 2024 and the first three months of this year. US President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on various goods arriving in the US from China, Mexico and Canada, as well as on all imports of steel and aluminium. Some countries have retaliated with tariffs of their own on US imports, raising the prospect of a full-blown trade war. The IEA said US tariffs on Canada and Mexico "may impact flows and prices from the two countries that accounted for roughly 70pc of US crude oil imports last year." But it is still too early to assess the full effects of these trade policies on the wider oil market given the scope and scale of tariffs remain unclear and that negotiations are continuing, the IEA said. For now, the IEA's latest estimates see US demand growth this year slightly higher than its previous forecast. It sees US consumption increasing by 90,000 b/d to 20.40mn b/d, compared with a projected rise of 70,000 b/d in the prior OMR. The downgrades to its global oil demand forecast were mainly driven by India and South Korea. The agency also noted latest US sanctions on Russia and Iran had yet to "significantly disrupt loadings, even as some buyers have scaled back loadings." The IEA's latest balances show global supply exceeding demand by 600,000 b/d in 2025, compared with 450,000 b/d in its previous forecast. It said the surplus could rise to 1mn b/d if Opec+ members continue to raise production beyond April. Eight members of the Opec+ alliance earlier this month agreed to proceed with a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary production cuts over an 18 month period starting in April. The IEA said the actual output increase in April may only be 40,000 b/d, not the 138,000 b/d implied under the Opec+ plan, as most are already exceeding their production targets. The IEA sees global oil supply growing by 1.5mn b/d this year to 104.51mn b/d, compared with projected growth of 1.56mn b/d in its previous report. The agency does not incorporate any further supply increases from Opec+ beyond the planned April rise. The IEA said global observed stocks fell by 40.5mn bl in January, of which 26.1mn bl were products. Preliminary data for February show a rebound in global stocks, lifted by an increase in oil on water, the IEA said. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US gas producers gear up for return to growth

12/03/25

News

12/03/25

US gas producers gear up for return to growth

Firms have changed their tune since the start of the winter, as weather-related factors have increased the appeal of boosting output, writes Julian Hast New York, 12 March (Argus) — Some large US natural gas-focused producers plan to boost their output in the coming years, in response to higher prices and booming US LNG export capacity. This would reverse a years-long trend among US producers of holding output steady to avoid oversupply, which drags down prices. The largest producer of US gas by volume, Expand Energy, aims to lift production by 3.4pc from last year to 7.1bn ft³/d (201mn m³/d) in 2025 and to boost drilling to bring on line 300mn ft³/d of sidelined production capacity that could hit the market in 2026. Fellow US gas producer Comstock Resources plans to add drilling rigs in the Haynesville shale of east Texas and northern Louisiana this year in a bid to offset output declines triggered by low prices in 2024 and bring new output on line when needed. US firm Range Resources, which operates in the Appalachian region, expects to boost production by 19pc from 2024 to 2.6bn ft³/d by 2027, with most of this growth set to take place in 2026-27, when the majority of the planned new LNG export terminals on the US Gulf coast are slated to begin operations. Range's sharp upward growth trajectory represents a break from its recent past, given that its 2024 output was just 2.5pc higher than in 2020. US gas producers appear poised to raise output by about 2bn ft³/d combined over the next 12-24 months, to refill inventories that have been depleted by a cold 2024-25 winter season and to keep up with booming LNG exports, according to investment bank RBC Capital Markets. But if every US gas producer grows at same the rate that Range Resources envisages, "the macro backdrop could quickly deteriorate", US bank Tudor Pickering Holt said in a note to clients last month. US gas inventories were at an 80bn ft³ deficit to the five-year average at the end of February, compared with a 215bn ft³ surplus on 1 November, according to US government agency the EIA. US gas prices now have now climbed above the marginal breakeven price of the industry, Expand Energy chief executive Nick Dell'Osso says, putting the US breakeven US gas price at about $3.50/mn Btu. This means "supply will ultimately show up and compete", he says. Expand Energy and fellow US producer EQT, which made the same estimation of the industry breakeven price early last year, say their own breakeven figures are lower because of their ample acreage in the Marcellus and Utica shale formations of Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, where production costs are lower. Nymex gas futures prices at the US benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana for delivery in 2026 settled at $4.38/mn Btu on 7 March, up from $3.91/mn Btu at the start of this year. Fair-weather friend The recent growth plans of US producers stand in contrast with many producers' reluctance to boost output earlier this winter, in response to weather-driven shifts in supply and demand. "You don't want to grow for a season" but rather "grow for something that is durable over several years", Dell'Osso said in January. And the production plans of gas-focused firms may end up being overshadowed by those of crude-focused players in the Permian basin of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. These are set to remain the main drivers of production growth in the coming months, thanks to new gas pipeline infrastructure connecting associated gas supply to end markets near the US Gulf coast. Total US marketed gas production is forecast to increase to 114.7bn ft³/d this year and 117.9bn ft³/d in 2026, from 113.1bn ft³/d in 2024, the EIA says. Permian basin output is expected to account for 75pc, or 3.6bn ft³/d, of the additional production by 2026, with output from the basin increasing by 7pc/yr in 2025-26. This would be slower than the 14pc/yr recorded in 2022-24 but would still make it the US' fastest-growing production area. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more