President Donald Trump's move to impose 25pc tariffs on all steel imports to the US is likely to benefit Turkish steel exporters because it will create a level playing field with other countries, market participants said.
The US tariff on steel imports will be "25pc without exceptions, and that's all countries, no matter where it comes from, all countries", Trump said on 10 February. This will effectively nullify the free allocation that countries such as Canada, Mexico, Brazil and others have had, and will bring them in line with Turkey — Turkish steel exports to the US have been subject to a 25pc duty since mid-2019, after Trump during his first term lowered the rate from 50pc.
Some Turkish market participants have identified an opportunity to increase their exports to the US as a result of the move. "Since there was already a 25pc tax on Turkey, our exports to the US had decreased a lot. But now, if other countries also take 25pc like us, the conditions will be equal. In this case, our exports to the US will increase," a Turkish producer said.
"Now everyone has fair competition with 25pc for all products. Before this some countries had a duty-free quota, which was eliminating Turkey. I think we might have a better chance now," another producer said. "At least we would be fighting on equal terms," a different source added.
Turkey has an established foothold in the US and Canada for cold-rolled and galvanised coil exports. Combined imports of those Turkish products to both countries stood at just over 320,000t in 2024.
Increasing protectionism has led to a shift in the make-up of steel products sold by Turkey to North America over the past decade, with high-value products being favoured over less processed steel. Increased export opportunities are likely to benefit cold-rolled and galvanised sales further, rather than hot-rolled coil and rebar, exports of which have remained suppressed since 2017-18.
But some Turkish market sources were more cautious than others regarding the potential benefits arising from the tariffs. "If we look at the other side of the coin, countries that were previously exempt and cannot sell as much steel to the US may turn to Turkey. I think this is a significant risk," one source said.
For countries such as Canada, Mexico and Brazil, logistically, it could be more complicated to immediately redirect some of their steel trade to Turkey. But South Korea, Vietnam and Japan, which all have substantial steel trade with the US, might look to Turkey as a substitute market this year, although Vietnam is the only one of these countries that is not subject to anti-dumping duties or a pending anti-dumping investigation in Turkey.
