Gas supply to Mexico's largest LNG terminal is in question as security concerns and community opposition threaten the Sierra Madre pipeline's progress.
Mexico Pacific's 48-inch, 800km (497 mi) pipeline, when completed, will transport up to 2.8 Bcf/d of natural gas from Texas' Waha Basin to Mexico Pacific's Saguaro LNG terminal in Puerto Libertad, Sonora state. The terminal, under construction, is expected to reach 30mn tonnes (t)/yr capacity over two phases — nearly half the combined output of Mexico's six Pacific LNG projects.
Mexico Pacific says the first three 5mn t/yr trains will be completed in 2025, with all federal, state and municipal permits secured. But the pipeline still lacks key state and municipal approvals.
"The terminal has all its permits," said Miriam Grunstein, a former advisor to the energy regulatory commission CRE. "But some pipeline permits will be tough to secure."
Both the terminal and pipeline have strong federal and state backing. In October, Mexico's president Claudia Sheinbaum publicly praised Mexico Pacific's planned $15bn investment. The company also signed agreements with Chihuahua and Sonora state governments and national power utility CFE to channel investments into social, security and infrastructure projects.
"The pipeline is likely to get state permits," Grunstein said, "but political opposition is real." While Sheinbaum's Morena Party dominates congress, Chihuahua governor Maria Eugenia Campos belongs to the opposition party PAN, and the centrist PRI still holds sway in northern states.
"The PAN and PRI could try to block the project to weaken Morena," Grunstein said.
Security is another major hurdle. "Border projects need military protection," said Eduardo Prud'homme, former technical director at Mexico's state pipeline operator Cenagas, citing threats from criminal organizations trafficking drugs and migrants.
The pipeline's route runs near the Altar desert, a federally protected area used by human traffickers. Clashes with drug gangs and armed human traffickers could escalate after Sheinbaum pledged to deploy thousands of National Guard troops to the border in talks with US president Donald Trump, Grunstein said.
The last time Mexico waged direct war on cartels — during the 2006-2012 administration of former president Felipe Calderon — it resulted in over 120,000 homicides and 27,000 disappearances in six years, according to government data.
Durazo's 'Plan Sonora'
Sonora governor Alfonso Durazo has privately committed to securing the Sierra Madre project, Grunstein said, while Chihuahua's Campos "has been silent on the issue."
"For Durazo, the stakes are high," she said. "It's part of ‘Plan Sonora,' his administration's flagship project, and he'll push to start construction this year."
Launched in 2022, Plan Sonora aims to establish a cross-border lithium battery supply chain, with a state-owned company managing lithium extraction. A new 1GW CFE solar plant will support the industry, but natural gas from Sierra Madre remains key in the transition.
Environmental opposition could further complicate matters. Over 30 civil groups have protested the LNG project's impact on the Gulf of California's biodiversity, organizing rallies and gathering 200,000 signatures. Their formal complaints date back to former president Andres Manuel López Obrador's administration, but Sheinbaum— an environmental scientist — has yet to address them.
Indigenous resistance may pose the biggest challenge. Mexico Pacific is likely just beginning the legally required consultation process.
"Mexico has struggled to secure indigenous approvals for pipelines," Grunstein said. "The Tula-Tuxpan pipeline was delayed over six years because of opposition. This could trigger even greater resistance."
