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CO2 capture would extend US energy independence: Oxy

  • Market: Crude oil, Emissions
  • 19/02/25

Direct air capture of carbon dioxide (CO2) would extend the US' energy independence by more than 10 years, Occidental Petroleum's chief executive Vicki Hollub said today, but tax subsidies now at risk from the White House are still needed.

The US could tap into another 50bn-70bn bls of oil by using enhanced oil recovery techniques with CO2 pulled in by direct air capture facilities, like the projects Occidental is developing, Hollub said on a call with analysts on Wednesday. Direct air capture technology removes CO2 from the atmosphere.

Naturally occurring CO2 from underground formations is already used in enhanced oil recovery projects in the US, but it has limits, Hollub said.

"There's not enough organic CO2 in the country to be able to flood all the [reservoirs] we're going to need to flood," Hollub said.

Such projects are counting on 45Q tax credits offered through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) passed during the administration of former president Joe Biden. But President Donald Trump suspended IRA funds soon after taking office, criticizing it as "the Green New Scam".

"We know that we have the capability to get the costs down on these direct air capture facilities," said Hollub. "But to get to where we need to be, we really need to have 45Q."

Occidental's low carbon strategy has not yet changed since Trump took office.

"President Trump knows the business case for this," said Hollub. "I've had several conversations with him."

Occidental produced 1.46mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) of oil and natural gas in the fourth quarter, the company reported on 18 February, up from 1.23mn boe/d in the fourth quarter 2023, largely due to its massive $12bn acquisition of CrownRock in August last year.


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10/04/25

New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction

New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction

Corrects description of options for avoiding feedstock tariffs in 12th paragraph. Story originally published 3 April. New York, 10 April (Argus) — New US tariffs on nearly all foreign products could deter further imports of beef tallow, a fast-rising biofuel feedstock and food ingredient that had until now largely evaded President Donald Trump's efforts to reshape global trade. Tallow was the most used feedstock for US biomass-based diesel production in January for the first month ever, with consumption by pound rising month to month despite sharp declines in actual biorefining and in use of competing feedstocks. The beef byproduct benefits from US policies, including a new federal tax credit known as "45Z", that offer greater subsidies to fuel derived from waste than fuel derived from first-generation crops. Much of that tallow is sourced domestically, but the US also imported more than 880,000t of tallow last year, up 29pc from just two years earlier. The majority of those imports last year came from Brazil, which until now has faced a small 0.43¢/kg (19.5¢/lb) tariff, and from Australia, which was exempt from any tallow-specific tariffs under a free trade agreement with US. But starting on 5 April, both countries will be subject to at least the new 10pc charge on foreign imports. There are some carveouts from tariffs for certain energy products, but animal fats are not included. Some other major suppliers — like Argentina, Uruguay, and New Zealand — will soon have new tariffs in place too, although tallow from Canada is for now unaffected because it is covered by the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Brazil tallow shipments to the US totaled around 300,000t in 2024, marking an all-time high, but tallow shipments during the fourth quarter of 2024 fell under the 2023 levels as uncertainty about future tax policy slowed buying interest. Feedstock demand in general in the US has remained muted to start this year because of poor biofuel production margins, and that has extended to global tallow flows. Tallow suppliers in Brazil for instance were already experiencing decreased interest from US producers before tariffs. Brazil tallow prices for export last closed at $1,080/t on 28 March, rising about 4pc year-to-date amid support from the 45Z guidance and aid from Brazil's growing biodiesel industry, which is paying a hefty premium for tallow compared to exports. While the large majority of Brazilian tallow exports end up in the US, Australian suppliers have more flexibility and could send more volume to Singapore instead if tariffs deter US buyers. Export prices out of Australia peaked this year at $1,185/t on 4 March but have since trended lower to last close at $1,050/t on 1 April. In general, market participants say international tallow suppliers would have to drop offers to keep trade flows intact. Other policy shifts affect flows Even as US farm groups clamored for more muscular foreign feedstock limits over much of the last year, tallow had until now largely dodged any significant restrictions. Recent US guidance around 45Z treats all tallow, whether produced in the US or shipped long distances to reach the US, the same. Other foreign feedstocks were treated more harshly, with the same guidance providing no pathway at all for road fuels from foreign used cooking oil and also pinning the carbon intensity of canola oil — largely from Canada — as generally too high to claim any subsidy. But tariffs on major suppliers of tallow to the US, and the threat of additional charges if countries retaliate, could give refiners pause. Demand could rise for domestic animal fats or alternatively for domestic vegetable oils that can also be refined into fuel, especially if retaliatory tariffs cut off global markets for US farm products like soybean oil. There is also risk if Republicans in the Trump administration or Congress reshape rules around 45Z to penalize foreign feedstocks. At the same time, a minimum 10pc charge for tallow outside North America is a more manageable price to pay compared to other feedstocks — including a far-greater collection of charges on Chinese used cooking oil. And if the US sets biofuel blend mandates as high as some oil and farm groups are pushing , strong demand could leave producers with little choice but to continue importing at least some feedstock from abroad to continue making fuel. Not all US renewable diesel producers will be equally impacted by tariffs either. Some tariffs are eligible for drawbacks, meaning that producers could potentially recover tariffs they paid on feedstocks for fuel that is ultimately exported. And multiple biofuel producers are located in foreign-trade zones, a US program that works similarly to the duty drawbacks, and have applied for permission to avoid some tariffs on imported feedstocks for fuel eventually shipped abroad. Jurisdictions like the EU and UK, where sustainable aviation fuel mandates took effect this year, are attractive destinations. And there is still strong demand from the US food sector, with edible tallow prices in Chicago up 18pc so far this year. Trump allies, including his top health official, have pushed tallow as an alternative to seed oils. By Cole Martin and Jamuna Gautam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Quebec stands by GHG program


10/04/25
News
10/04/25

Quebec stands by GHG program

Houston, 10 April (Argus) — Quebec legislators and government officials reaffirmed their support for the province's cap-and-trade program on Wednesday. The National Assembly of Quebec unanimously adopted a joint resolution expressing continued support for the provincial program, which was introduced by members from opposition parties Quebec Liberal Party, Québec solidaire, Parti québécois and Quebec environment minister Benoit Charette of the majority party Coalition avenir Québec. The resolution's passage came a day after US president Donald Trump issued an executive order taking aim at state climate policies as an "overreach" of their authority, specifically citing California's cap-and-trade program, which formed a joint market with the province in 2013. While Trump's order cast a wide net over potential areas the administration intends to scrutinize, a familiar theme from his previous term did appear around state climate policies interacting with international relations. "These state laws and policies try to dictate interstate and international disputes over air, water, and natural resources," Trump said. While Quebec's Ministry of Environment declined to comment on the order, the province's link with California's program was an area of contention between the state and the first Trump administration. The Trump administration in October 2019 filed a lawsuit that sought to sever California's link on the grounds the state had unlawfully overstepped federal powers to negotiate independent foreign policy for greenhouse gas (GHG) regulation and was "inconsistent" with Trump's then-ongoing withdrawal from the Paris Agreement started in 2017. But the lawsuit ultimately failed following two separate rulings by the same federal judge in 2020, with a subsequent appeal by the Trump administration withdrawn after the election of former US president Joe Biden. Trump's new executive order roiled environmental markets on Wednesday, with California Carbon Allowances (CCAs) for December delivery trading as low as $22.51/metric tonne on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), before partially rebounding as participants expressed concern about potential federal action against the program. While state and government officials continue to evaluate the order, the office of California attorney general Rob Bonta (D) said the state's Department of Justice will use the "full force of the law and tools of this office to address the climate crisis head on." The California and Quebec programs aim for economy-wide reductions in GHG emissions, including from power plants, refineries and on-road fuel use. Both jurisdictions are seeking to increase the stringency of their respective programs to remain on course for statutory targets through a pair of rulemakings that may be implemented next year. The joint market, known as the Western Climate Initiative (WCI), is also evaluating linking with the Washington "cap-and-invest' program, which would make the state the first one to join California in the WCI, creating a larger North American carbon market. Quebec seeks to reduce GHG emissions by 37.5pc below 1990 levels by 2030, and achieve carbon neutrality in 2050. Provincial regulators are considering removing 17.5mn allowances from the program to speed emissions reductions, while tapering the use of carbon offset credits by 2030, among other changes. California requires a 40pc reduction from 1990 emission levels by the end of 2030, and net-zero in 2045. CARB is considering changing the 2030 target to 48pc. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EIA slashes WTI outlook by $7/bl on trade uncertainty


10/04/25
News
10/04/25

EIA slashes WTI outlook by $7/bl on trade uncertainty

Calgary, 10 April (Argus) — The US light sweet crude benchmark will be nearly $7/bl lower this year than previously expected, with an ongoing trade war stifling global demand by nearly 500,000 b/d, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said today. WTI at Cushing, Oklahoma, is expected to average $63.88/bl in 2025, the agency said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), lower by $6.80/bl from its March forecast. It will fall further to $57.48/bl in 2026, or $7.49/bl lower from the prior STEO. Brent prices saw similar downward revisions and is now forecast at $67.68/bl in 2025 and $61.48/bl in 2026. The latest STEO was to be released on 8 April, but the EIA said it needed more time to rerun its models in light of last week's sweeping tariff action by US president Donald Trump and subsequent retaliation by China. The protectionist measures have led major banks to cut oil price forecasts amid growing concerns over a stagnating US economy. The EIA completed its analysis on 7 April meaning it did not incorporate the most recent developments, including Trump's 9 April pause on the highest levels of punitive tariffs against key US trading partners and an increase in Chinese tariffs . The latest forecast is "subject to significant uncertainty," said the EIA. Global consumption of oil and liquid fuels is now expected to average 103.64mn b/d in 2025, lower by 490,000 b/d from the previous forecast. Consumption in 2026 is forecast at 104.68mn b/d, lower by 620,000 b/d. Global production meanwhile was lowered by to 104.1mn b/d for 2025 and to 105.35mn b/d for 2026. These are lower from the prior forecast by 70,000 b/d and 43,000 b/d, respectively. In the US, domestic consumption is projected to average 20.38mn b/d in 2025, lower by 70,000 b/d compared to last month's STEO. Consumption was lowered for 2026 by 110,000 b/d at 20.49mn b/d. Domestic production will come in at 13.51mn b/d in 2025 and 13.56mn b/d in 2026, the EIA said. This is lower by 100,000 b/d and 200,000 b/d, respectively, compared to the March STEO. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Norway plans to cut GHGs, but remain oil, gas producer


10/04/25
News
10/04/25

Norway plans to cut GHGs, but remain oil, gas producer

London, 10 April (Argus) — Norway's government has proposed a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction of a minimum 70-75pc by 2035, from a 1990 baseline, but has also committed to the country remaining "a stable and predictable supplier of oil and gas produced with low emissions". The government today set out plans for a 2035 GHG reduction target, as well as a wider climate plan for the country. The 2035 GHG reduction targets build on Norway's 2030 goal of "at least" a 55pc reduction in GHGs, again from 1990 levels. Norway has a legislated goal of "a low-emission society" by 2050 — GHG reductions of 90-95pc from the 1990 baseline. Norway's government underlined its commitment to Paris climate agreement goals and phasing out the use of fossil fuels "towards 2050", but also said that it would "not prepare a strategy for the end phase of Norwegian oil and gas". "The government's plan is about phasing out emissions, not industries", it said, noting that Norway is "a significant contributor to Europe's energy security". Norway is the largest producer and only net exporter of oil and gas in Europe. "The government will further develop the petroleum industry and facilitate the future provision of fields… production will continue to be efficient and with low emissions," the government said. It aims for the country's oil and gas sector — the country's highest-emitting industry — to bring emissions from production to net zero in 2050. The bulk of oil and gas emissions are from downstream use — known as scope 3. Norway plans to achieve the majority of its proposed 70-75pc GHG cuts through national measures, including reduced fossil fuel use and both technical and nature-based carbon removals. It also plans to purchase emissions reductions from outside the EU and European Economic Area. This refers to internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs) — emission credits — under Article 6 of the Paris climate agreement. Norway's parliament will consider the proposals. Once legislated in the country's climate act, Norway plans to communicate its updated plans to the UN. Signatories to the Paris climate agreement are expected to submit updated climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — to UN climate body the UNFCCC every five years. The deadline for NDCs setting out climate goals up to 2035 was in February, but many countries have yet to submit plans . By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump coal plant bailout renews first term fight


09/04/25
News
09/04/25

Trump coal plant bailout renews first term fight

Washington, 9 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump's effort to stop the retirement of coal-fired power plants is reminiscent of a 2017 attempt that faltered in the face of widespread industry opposition. Trump, in an executive order signed on Tuesday, directed the US Department of Energy (DOE) to tap into emergency powers to stop the retirement of coal-fired plants and other large plants it believes are critical to grid reliability. The order sets a 30-day deadline for DOE to decide which plants are critical based on a new methodology that will analyze if reserve margins, or the percent of unused capacity at peak demand, are at an "acceptable" level. The initiative shares similarities to Trump's unsuccessful effort in his first term to bail out coal and nuclear plants. In the 2017 effort, Trump backed a "grid resiliency" proposal to compensate power plants with 90 days of on-site fuel. But an unusual coalition of natural gas industry groups, manufacturers, renewable producers and environmentalists united against the idea, warning it would upend power markets and cost consumers billions of dollars each year. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission voted 5-0 to reject the proposal. It remains unclear if a similarly sized coalition will emerge to fight Trump's latest proposal, under which DOE would use emergency powers in section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act to keep some coal plants and other large power plants operating. Industry groups have largely been avoiding taking positions that could be seen as critical of Trump. Environmentalists say they strongly oppose keeping coal plants operating using emergency powers. Doing so would mean more air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, they say, and higher costs for consumers. Environmental groups say they are hoping other industries affected by the potential bailout will eventually speak out against the initiative. "The silence from those who know better is deafening," Center for Biological Diversity climate law institute legal director Jason Rylander said. "I hope that we will start to see more resistance to these dangerous policies before significant damage is done." DOE said it was "already hard at work" to implement Trump's executive order, which was paired with other orders that were meant to support coal mining and coal production. US energy secretary Chris Wright said today that reviving coal will increase the reliability of the electrical grid and bring down electricity costs, but he has not shared further details on the 202(c) initiative. Trying to litigate the program could be "tricky", and section 202(c) orders have never successfully been challenged in court, in part because they are usually short-term orders, Harvard Law School Electricity Law Initiative director Ari Peskoe said. But opponents could challenge them by focusing on "numerous legal problems", he said, such as not allowing public comment or running afoul of a US Supreme Court precedent that prohibits agencies from attempting to decide "major questions" without clear congressional authorization. "Here DOE would use a little-used statute explicitly written for short-term emergencies in order to PREVENT a change in the US energy mix," Peskoe said. A projected 8.1GW of coal-fired generation is set to retire this year, equivalent to nearly 5pc of the coal fleet, the US Energy Information Administration said last month. Electric utilities often decide which plants to retire years in advance, allowing them to defer maintenance and to forgo capital investments in aging facilities. Keeping coal plants running could require exemptions from environmental rules or pricey capital investments, the costs of which would likely be distributed among other ratepayers. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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