EU HRC futures jump on likely safeguard tightening

Market: Metals
20/02/25

European hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures and equities rallied this morning, in expectation of a tightened steel safeguard.

The European Commission is due to inform the WTO next week of the results of its functional safeguard review, and some buyers believe mills are anticipating a strong cut in imports, given their toughened pricing stance. The market leader has informed buyers it will be seeking €680/t in the coming days, potentially moving to €700/t in the next week or two. Other mills have also pulled their offers in expectation of stronger pricing.

Trade was brisk on the CME Group's north EU HRC contract this morning, with increased buying interest on the comparatively flat curve. Two March-April spreads traded at -€10/t, with the outright prices at €625-635/t, while a 5,000t April trade concluded at €643/t, up by €8/t on yesterday's settlement. May nudged up by €5/t to €645/t, for 2,000t, before trading a minute later at €648/t, again for 2,000t.

On screen, March and April both rose by €10/t to €635/t and €645/, respectively. Some mill equities also rallied, with ThyssenKrupp rising by over 3pc as of 11:25 GMT and Salzgitter rising by almost 4.5pc by 11:23 GMT.

EU HRC futures appear to have shrugged off the initial malaise following the news of new US import tariffs, with volume also rising today; almost 19,000t had traded by 11:24 GMT, the highest daily volume since 4 December. The likelihood of a tighter safeguard, and the fresh increases sought by mills, bolstered the curve, which had been constrained somewhat by active selling from traders hedging their physical inventories, sources said. Service centres of late have noted an increased number of domestic offers from traders, which bought material — normally from service centres — in the weak fourth-quarter market. Some of that inventory has been offered at a fixed price recently, with deals concluded around €570-580/t ex-stock, while some has been offered at a discount to Argus' north EU HRC index, the underlying settlement basis for the CME contract.

Physical HRC prices have increased quite sharply in the past five weeks, largely driven by a reduction in import volumes, despite underlying demand remaining weak. Argus' north EU HRC index jumped by €52.50/t from €558.25/t on 6 January to €610.75/t on 19 February, while the daily Italian index rose by €40.50/t from €566.75/t to €607.25/t, over the same period. Margins for north EU HRC producers have increased by €49.44/t over the same period to over €122/t, their highest level since 10 September last year.

By Colin Richardson

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