BP has raised its 2030 target for oil and gas production to 2.3mn-2.5mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) as part of a "fundamental reset" of its strategy that also entails a cut in its renewable energy investments.
The 2.3mn-2.5mn boe/d goal leaves little scope for substantial output growth given that BP produced 2.36mn boe/d last year. But it is a stark change from the company's previous target to reduce production to 2mn boe/d by 2030.
BP intends to dial down its overall capital expenditure (capex) to $13bn-15bn/yr through to 2027 and to sell $20bn of assets during that time to help strengthen its balance sheet. Its previous plan was to spend $14bn-18bn/yr in 2024-30.
The capex cut will be driven by lower spending on renewables, while investment on oil and gas is targeted at $10bn/yr, a slight increase on the $9.8bn it spent last year. BP plans to launch 10 major new upstream projects by the end of 2027, with a further 8-10 starting up by the end of 2030. It also plans to strengthen its upstream portfolio by "reloading [its] exploration hopper".
BP expects investment in what it calls its "transition" businesses to be $1.5bn-$2.5bn/yr through to 2027 — around $5bn/yr lower than previous guidance. The company plans to make selective investments in biogas, biofuels and electric vehicle charging businesses and a more focused investment in hydrogen and carbon capture and storage (CCS) assets, alongside a capital-light partnership approach to renewable power. BP announced in December last year a new joint venture with Japanese utility Jera to house the two companies' offshore wind assets, saving it an estimated $4bn in capex until the end of the decade.
Along with the higher oil and gas output target and the lower energy transition spend, BP has amended its emissions reduction goal. It now expects its scope 1 and 2 emissions to be 45pc-50pc lower in 2030 than in 2019. Previously, it was targeting a 50pc cut.
Downstream assets will contribute to BP's $20bn divestment target. The company has already put its 257,800 b/d Gelsenkirchen refinery in Germany up for sale, it will carry out a strategic review of its Castrol global lubricants business and it plans to bring in a partner for its Lightsource BP solar business.
BP expects proceeds from the divestment programme, savings from the reduced capex and the boost to cash flow from higher oil and gas production to help it cut its net debt to $14bn-$18bn by the end of 2027, from $23bn at the end of 2024. At the same time the company plans to allocate 30pc-40pc of its operating cash flow to shareholder returns, including a dividend that it sees increasing by more than 4pc/yr.
Investment bank RBC Capital Markets noted that BP's new strategy is line with expectations. "To us, much of the release looks to be BP making the right calls for the long term, but it may not please investors today," the bank said.
BP's share price was down by 0.9pc just before lunchtime in London.
