End of waiver endangers Venezuela's 1mn b/d aim

Market: Crude oil
27/02/25

Venezuela has no plan for compensating for a production decline expected after Chevron's waiver that allows it to export crude runs out under the order of US president Donald Trump.

Chevron had been exporting about 200,000 b/d to the US and importing condensate needed to dilute Venezuela's extra-heavy crude. This helped to push Venezuela's reported figure including liquids and condensates to 1.035mn b/d in January, although Argus estimates crude-only production at closer to 840,000 b/d.

But the waiver that allowed Chevron to make investments there directed at exports to the US only will not be renewed on 1 March, Trump said on Wednesday, casting his decision as retaliation for Venezuela for not receiving enough migrants deported from the US. Chevron likely will have at least until August to wind down its operations in Venezuela, based on the terms of the license, but the US has not revealed details of the process.

There are few immediate solutions to replace that support, government officials and sources at oil companies said.

Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro downplayed the change, saying no "threat" will hurt "the will of the Venezuelan people to advance towards their independence, towards their freedom and towards their maximum happiness".

Maduro threatened to jail any opposition politicians who have encouraged the US to remove the waiver as a way to pressure him out of office.

Without Chevron investing in the joint-venture projects with state-owned PdV, it will be difficult for Venezuela to recover output elsewhere.

"Maduro was caught by surprise," a political analyst in Caracas who asked not to be named said. "In Chavista circles [close to Maduro] the chatter was centered around normalization, Trump getting closer to [Russian president Vladimir] Putin, all that good stuff. Now this. They don't have a plan."

Oil interrupted

PdV and partners including Chevron, Eni and Repsol produced 1.051mn bl on 5 February, the highest level since 2018 and slightly higher than the January monthly average of 1.035mn b/d, according to the latest PdV production report seen by Argus.

The FPO or Faja division was producing 601,800 b/d that day; while Occidente (Zulia) added 281,500 b/d and Oriente,149,400 b/d. Smaller producing areas include Los Llanos, with 11,900 b/d; offshore division Costa Afuera with 2,000 b/d and PdV Gas with 4,600 b/d.

That production figure includes at least 35,000 b/d of condensate imported by Chevron. Venezuela may import as much as 165,000 b/d of condensate and lighter crude used to transport and upgrade Orinoco extra heavy crude, or 16pc of total reported production, Venezuelan oil economist Rafael Quiroz estimates.

By Carlos Camacho

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Global electricity consumption increased faster, by 4.3pc, driven by record-high temperatures — that led to increased cooling needs — as well as growing industrial consumption, the electrification of transport and the rapid growth of power-hungry data centres needed to support the boom in artificial intelligence, the IEA says. Renewables and nuclear covered the majority of growth in electricity demand, at 80pc, while supply of gas-fired power generation "also increased steadily", the IEA says. New renewable power installations reached about 700GW in 2024 — a new high. Solar power led the pack, rising by about 550GW last year. The power generation and overall energy mix is changing, as economies shift towards electrification. The rate of increase in coal demand slowed to 1.1pc in 2024, around half the pace seen in 2023. Coal remained the single biggest source of power generation in 2024, at 35pc, but renewable power sources and nuclear together made up 41pc of total generation last year, IEA data show. Nuclear power use is expected to hit its highest ever this year, the agency says. And "growth in global oil demand slowed markedly in 2024", the IEA says, rising by 0.8pc compared with 1.9pc in 2023. A rise in electric vehicle (EV) purchases was a key contributor to the drop in oil demand for road transport, and this offset "a significant proportion" of the rise in oil consumption for aviation and petrochemicals, the IEA says. Blowing hot and coal Much of the growth in coal consumption last year was down to "intense heatwaves" — particularly in China and India, the IEA found. These "contributed more than 90pc of the total annual increase in coal consumption globally", for cooling needs. The IEA repeatedly noted the significant effect that extreme weather in 2024 had on energy systems and demand patterns. Last year was the hottest ever recorded, beating the previous record set in 2023, and for CO2 emissions, "weather effects" made up about half of the 2024 increase, the watchdog found. "Weather effects contributed about 15pc of the overall increase in global energy demand," according to the IEA. Global cooling degree days were 6pc higher on the year in 2024, and 20pc higher than the 2000-20 average. But the "continued rapid adoption of clean energy technologies" restricted the rise in energy-related CO2 emissions, which fell to 0.8pc in 2024 from 1.2pc in 2023, the IEA says. Energy-related CO2 emissions — including flaring — still hit a record high of 37.8bn t in 2024, but the rise in emissions was lower than global GDP growth. Key "clean energy technologies" — solar, wind and nuclear power, EVs and heat pumps — collectively now prevent about 2.6bn t/yr CO2 of emissions, the IEA says. But there remains an emissions divide between advanced and developing economies. "The majority of emissions growth in 2024 came from emerging and developing economies other than China," the agency says, while advanced economies such as the UK and EU cut emissions last year and continue to push ahead with decarbonisation. Global energy suppy by fuel EJ Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 Total 648 634 622 2.2 1.8 Renewables 97 92 89 5.8 3.1 Nuclear 31 30 29 3.7 2.2 Natural gas 149 145 144 2.7 0.7 Oil 193 192 188 0.8 1.9 Coal 177 175 172 1.2 2.0 Global power generation by fuel TWh Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 Total 31,153 29,897 29,153 4.2 2.6 Renewables 9,992 9,074 8,643 10.0 5.0 Nuclear 2,844 2,743 2,684 3.7 2.2 Natural gas 6,793 6,622 6,526 2.6 1.5 Oil 738 762 801 -3.2 -4.8 Coal 10,736 10,645 10,452 0.9 1.8 Global power generation by country TWh Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 World 31,153 29,897 29,153 4.2 2.6 US 4,556 4,419 4,473 3.1 -1.2 EU 2,769 2,718 2,792 1.9 -2.6 China 10,205 9,564 8,947 6.7 6.9 India 2,059 1,958 1,814 5.2 7.9 Global CO2 emissions by country mn t Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 World 37,566 37,270 36,819 0.8 1.2 US 4,546 4,567 4,717 -0.5 -3.2 EU 2,401 2,455 2,683 -2.2 -8.5 China 12,603 12,552 12,013 0.4 4.5 India 2,987 2,836 2,691 5.3 5.4 *includes industrial process emissions — IEA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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27/03/25

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27/03/25

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26/03/25

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26/03/25

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26/03/25

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