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Energy a priority for Uruguay’s new government

  • Market: Crude oil, Electricity, Hydrogen, Natural gas
  • 28/02/25

Energy will play a central role as Uruguay's new president Yamandu Orsi begins his five-year term on 1 March.

Orsi, of the left-wing Broad Front coalition, takes over one of South America's most economically and politically stable countries. The economy is forecast to expand by 3pc this year, above the regional average, and the government wants to attract investment to maintain growth. The energy sector is a priority.

Uruguay already has one of the region's cleanest grids, with 99pc of power coming from renewable sources, and in February reached the goal of 100pc electrification nationwide, according to the state-run electric company, UTE.

The Orsi administration is studying options for the second phase of the energy transition, which includes adding capacity to meet increasing demand from electrification of transportation and clean fuel production.

New finance minister Gabriel Oddone said the administration would focus on reducing red tape and potentially provide incentives for investment in the energy sector.

Uruguay currently has close to 5.3GW of installed capacity, with 78pc in renewable sources, for its population of 3.5mn.

The UTE, which had a profit of $315mn in 2024, is adding 100MW in wind power in the next two years. The Orsi administration plans to prioritize solar capacity.

The new government is keenly following the development of low-carbon hydrogen and e-fuel projects.

The most advanced project is for production of 700,000 tonnes (t) of synthetic fuel by Chile's HIF Global and ALUR, the biofuel arm of the state-owned Ancap. Investment is estimated at $6bn, making it the largest planned single investment in the country's history.

The company requested approval in January of environmental permits for the project's solar park that would include 1.84mn bifacial solar panels. It would produce a peak of 1,162MW. Construction would take 18 months from approval.

The municipal council in Paysandu, in northwestern Uruguay where the project is planned, on 27 February approved a change in land use to facilitate plant construction.

Ancap, which lost an estimated $130mn last year because its only refinery was closed for six months, has proposed offshore production of low-carbon hydrogen. The Orsi administration has not yet committed to the project.

Reverse transition?

The new government will also have to also have to decide on the future of seven offshore exploration blocks, with seismic testing planned for late this year, and the possible construction of a gas pipeline that would link Argentina and Brazil.

A pipeline exists from Argentina to Uruguay, but it could be expanded and extended to supply southern Brazil. It would require an additional 415km (258mi) in Uruguay, and around 500km in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul state.

Orsi has taken a wait-and-see attitude toward exploration, while a gas pipeline would likely have more popular support because it could expand service from only a section of the coast to a wider region.


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01/04/25

Canada oil producers get 6pc 1Q lift on weaker currency

Canada oil producers get 6pc 1Q lift on weaker currency

Calgary, 1 April (Argus) — A depreciating Canadian dollar is giving oil sands producers an extra lift and complementing relatively strong domestic crude prices to help weather tariff concerns. The Canadian dollar, on average, was worth C$1.44 to one US dollar in January-March 2025, weakening from C$1.35 to the greenback in the same quarter 2024, according to the Bank of Canada. That represents a more than 6pc advantage to Canadian producers selling crude in US dollars who then turn those earnings around to pay workers and suppliers in local currency. The outright price for heavy sour Western Canadian Select (WCS) at Hardisty, Alberta, settled at $58.67/bl in the first quarter this year, according to Argus data. This is only $1/bl higher than the same period last year, but with the now weaker Canadian dollar, that converts to over C$84/bl for producers who would have seen that under C$78/bl in the first quarter 2024. The Canadian dollar, on average, was worth C$1.37 to the US dollar in 2024, weakening from C$1.35 to the greenback in 2023 and the weakest annual average since 2003. The Bank of Canada largely attributes the sliding Canadian dollar to a rising foreign exchange rate risk premium, which relates to holding currencies other than the US dollar. This premium rises with uncertainty that has been amplified by US president Donald Trump's tariff actions in recent months, and that has also weighed on currencies from other economies, hitting developing countries' currencies harder than those of advanced economies. Also keeping the US dollar elevated is the US Federal Reserve's recent caution about resuming its cycle of cutting interest rates, thus attracting relatively more investors to US Treasury bills and boosting demand for US dollars. Canada meanwhile has brought its target rate lower to try to get ahead of an anticipated economic slowdown. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on [19 March](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2669490) held the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50pc for a second consecutive meeting after cutting at the last three meetings of 2024. The Bank of Canada a week earlier lowered its overnight rate for the seventh consecutive time to 2.75pc. Giving a more obvious boost to Canadian producers in the first quarter this year compared with a year earlier have been the appreciating domestic crude prices relative to the US light sweet benchmark, which has weakened across the same period. WCS trades at a discount to the Nymex WTI calendar month average (CMA) and that gap has narrowed on the back of new export pipeline capacity out of Canada, added in May 2024. WCS traded at about $12.75/bl under the WTI CMA across the first quarter this year, compared with a $19.25/bl discount a year earlier. More recent trade activity shows WCS for April-delivery narrowing further yet to within $10/bl under the basis — the tightest since April 2021 — with oil sands producers temporarily shutting in some production to embark on major maintenance . By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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01/04/25

Next US tariffs to take effect 'immediately'

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Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey


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01/04/25

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Mexican peso weakness may partially offset US tariffs


01/04/25
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01/04/25

Mexican peso weakness may partially offset US tariffs

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French nuclear modulation to step up this summer


01/04/25
News
01/04/25

French nuclear modulation to step up this summer

London, 1 April (Argus) — Modulation in the French nuclear fleet, and the consequent gap between nuclear availability and output, is set to grow in the coming weeks as consumption falls in summer and solar output picks up. But the fleet's ability to modulate, touted as one of its great strengths, could be put to the test by growing amounts of intermittent renewable capacity, without any accompanying rise in consumption or in flexible storage capacity. France's flexible nuclear plants are unusual in being able to modulate their output downwards, with each reactor capable of dropping twice a day to 20pc of rated output. Nuclear reactors by their nature have high fixed costs and low variable costs. But operator EdF still reduces production in hours in which prices fall below these low variable costs, widening the gap between the theoretical available capacity and actual production. And low-priced hours became more common last year, particularly in the summer, in the middle of the day and on weekends, as low demand coincided with high nuclear and renewable production. The gap between availability and output across the fleet typically has held at 1-2GW on a monthly basis in recent years. But last summer, it jumped to 4GW on average in each month from April-August ( see availability-output gap graph ). And so far this year it has averaged 2GW, compared with 1.8GW in the same period last year. Modulation has held higher too, with the difference between maximum and minimum daily nuclear output averaging 4.6GW, up from 3.2GW last year ( see modulation graph ). Solar output so far this year has averaged 2.4GW, up by 35pc on 1.8GW in the same period in 2024, after France's solar fleet grew by 5GW, or roughly a quarter, over 2024. As output increases with longer days, this will begin translating into increasingly more output centred around midday, driving stronger modulation. Modulation becomes political Modulation has this year become a political football, with the government promoting the parallel growth of nuclear and intermittent renewables, while an insurgent faction, typically on the political right, claims that more renewables are at best wasteful and at worst actively damage the nuclear fleet. France's nuclear fleet has always modulated, as its large size means residual demand is lower than capacity in low consumption periods. But the extent of this modulation grew sharply last year. Lower consumption contributed to this, as did the growth of renewables. Much of France's renewable capacity is not exposed to market prices, as it is remunerated by feed-in tariffs, and has no incentive to shut down when prices fall below zero. Even the minority of capacity that is required to halt production when prices fall below zero in order to retain subsidy still can produce at prices only slightly above zero, or below the marginal cost that drives EdF to modulate down nuclear output. Operator EdF defends its ability to modulate. The firm's nuclear chief, Etienne Dutheil, last year told a senate commission that the fleet's ability to modulate was the "envy" of other operators. And modulation has "very few effects" as long as it is partial and does not require a total shutdown that makes the plant cool down, he said. The firm told the senate enquiry that thus far, there is "no proven statistical link between modulation and a possible loss of production or increased failures of plants". But modulation could increase wear on reactors' secondary circuits and consequently increase maintenance needs, it said. Proponents of a combined nuclear and renewables approach say that meeting France's goals for electrifying end-uses will require a large volume of extra electricity in the coming years, which potential new nuclear plants — planned for the second half of the next decade at the earliest — will not be able to deliver in time. But opponents decry the combination of nuclear and renewables as wasteful, given that EdF does not save on any of its hefty fixed costs when modulating down nuclear plants to make way for zero-marginal cost renewable output, essentially putting a double burden on consumers that have to pay twice for two separate generating fleets. And others put forward the damage that they say modulation does to the nuclear fleet. Rassemblement National (RN) leader Marine Le Pen raised the topic in a written question to the government last month, asserting that modulation "prematurely ages pipes and welds of reactors". And even some internal EdF documents present modulation in a less benign light than the firm's chiefs. The combination of renewables and nuclear leads to power output fluctuations that are "never insignificant in terms of safety, especially of the control of the reactor core, and the maintainability, longevity and operating costs of our facilities", according to a 2024 report by the company's chief nuclear safety inspector. The PPE3 energy plan, which the government hopes to finalise in law imminently, commits France to rapid increases in renewables deployment. If the plan's objectives are followed, intermittent output will grow in the coming years. The plan also aims for a rapid increase in consumption to soak up the extra power produced. But potential drivers of electrification such as heat pumps and electric vehicles had their subsidies slashed in the 2025 budget. Increased storage capacity could be a way to integrate more intermittent renewables. France already has pumped-storage sites that can add up to 3.8GW of flexible demand during peak output periods. But battery storage is little developed in France, thanks partly to these pumped-storage sites and to nuclear modulation, both of which limit intra-day spreads. As battery capacity grows, it typically quickly saturates the ancillary services market and these wholesale spreads will become increasingly important for making battery projects profitable. By Rhys Talbot Nuclear availability-output gap GW Daily nuclear modulation (max-min output) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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