Cyclone Alfred moves towards Australia's Queensland

Market: Agriculture, Coal
03/03/25

Cyclone Alfred is set to make landfall in southern Queensland early on 6 March, threatening operations at the port of Brisbane and New Hope's New Acland coal mine ramp-up.

Cyclone Alfred will make landfall near Brisbane early on 6 March, before heading inland, according to forecasts from Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). The weather system has been moving towards to the coastal city since late last week, and is currently hovering just east of it.

Brisbane port suspended large vessel arrivals on 2 March to prioritise departures, which are being managed on a case-by-case basis, a spokesperson from government agency Maritime Safety Queensland told Argus. "Port closures will be implemented in stages based on evolving weather conditions and operational requirements," the spokesperson added.

The port of Brisbane handled 508,576t of coal exports in January, up by 97pc on the year (see table), largely because of the ramp-up of New Hope's New Acland mine. Sales from the site leaped ten-fold on the year from 103,000t to 1.3mn t over August 2024-January 2025, the first half of the firm's fiscal year.

The port also handles other products. Firms shipped 237,057t of agricultural seeds, 42,563t of meat products, and 30,641t of refined oil out of the hub in January.

New Hope's New Acland mine could be directly impacted by Cyclone Alfred. The site sits within the cyclone's potential impact zone, according to BoM. Stanwell's 7.6mn t/yr Meandu thermal coal mine also sits within the zone, but its coal is used to fuel the Stanwell and Tarong power stations, in southern Queensland.

Coal ports in northern and central Queensland — including the Ports of Gladstone, Abbot Point, Hay Point, and Dalrymple Bay — sit along Cyclone Alfred's previous expected path, but are no longer likely to be impacted by it.

Argus' 5800kcal NAR fob Newcastle price has fallen over the last six months from $111.40/t on 28 August to $81.70/t on 28 February, when it was last assessed.

By Avinash Govind

Brisbane port exports, selected commodities			t
	Jan-25	Jan-24	y-o-y Change (%)
Coal	508,576	257,962	97.2
Agricultural seeds	237,057	53,786	340.7
Meat products	42,563	43,125	-1.3
Total	1,168,190	819,336	42.6
Source: Port of Brisbane
*Total includes other export products

Coal 5,800kcal NAR fob Newcastle price $/t

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