US independent refiners' fourth-quarter earnings dropped sharply as refining margins slumped, but upcoming refinery closures and a heavy spring maintenance season could bolster crack spreads later this year.
The largest US refiner by capacity, Marathon Petroleum, reported a drop in its margins to $13/bl in the fourth quarter, from $18/bl in the same quarter of 2023. Its profits declined to $371mn in the quarter, from $1.5bn a year earlier. But Marathon expects margins to strengthen in the second half of this year, as announced refinery closures offset recent capacity additions, according to its chief executive Maryann Mannen.
As much as 800,000 b/d of global refining capacity could be shut this year, helping to tighten the market and improve margins. Two large US refineries are scheduled to close down permanently — LyondellBasell's 264,000 b/d facility in Houston, Texas, is in the process of shutting and Phillips 66 plans to close its 139,000 b/d Los Angeles plant by the end of this year.
Tightening supply is already helping to balance the market in the western US. Independent HF Sinclair says unplanned shutdowns and the start of maintenance in California are benefiting its refineries in neighbouring states that sell products to the region, including facilities in Anacortes, Washington, and Salt Lake City, Utah. California's supplies tightened after PBF Energy's 156,400 b/d Martinez refinery in the state was shut following a 1 February fire. And the market is bracing for a tighter market next year after the Phillips 66 plant closes.
Phillips 66 reported a fourth-quarter loss in its refining businesses as margins narrowed. Crude refining margins fell to $6/bl in the fourth quarter, down from $14/bl a year earlier, it says. Narrower margins drove a $775mn fourth-quarter loss in its refining segment, compared with a profit of $859mn in the fourth quarter of 2023. The narrower margins partly reflected accelerated depreciation associated with the planned Los Angeles refinery shutdown.
A burgeoning renewable fuels segment is offering some respite from the earnings downturn. Phillips 66's renewable fuels business made a $28mn profit in the fourth quarter, pushed up by higher margins at its Rodeo renewables plant in California and stronger international results.
Valero's refining segment dropped sharply in the fourth quarter, as operating income fell to just under $440mn, from $1.6bn a year earlier. But its renewable diesel business, which includes a joint venture with Diamond Green Diesel, reported operating income of $170mn in the fourth quarter, up from $84mn in the same period a year earlier.
Unclear outlook
Despite the rapid growth in US renewables, the overall outlook is unclear. The prices of credits tied to US state and federal clean fuel programmes remain relatively low, cutting into margins for biofuels producers. A tax credit for biomass-based diesel blenders was replaced this year by a new subsidy that can exclusively be claimed by US producers. Companies that produce biofuels say they need more clarity from the US government on how the new tax credit works before they follow through on plans to increase production.
Refiners in the US are worried about continuing to rely on government subsidies for renewables projects. US independent refiner CVR Energy intends to pause spending on its renewables business until there is more regulatory clarity in the country. "We've had all we can stand of exposure to government subsidies and it's going to take a shift change for us to really invest in it," CVR Energy chief executive David Lamp says.
