I-REC, I-Track demand soars in Feb alongside supply

Market: Electricity
10/03/25

Both redemptions and issuances of international renewable energy certificates (I-RECs) and non-renewable I-Track certificates were nearly 40pc higher year on year in February, with Brazil driving most of the increase.

Global I-REC and non-renewable I-Track redemptions totalled 45.1TWh last month, up from 32.8TWh in February 2024, according to data from global registry Evident. Demand last month was at its highest since March last year, when it reached 47TWh. The 12-month rolling average for redemptions was 1TWh higher on the month at 20.6TWh in February.

Total demand in January-February stood at 71TWh, nearly a third of the 233TWh cancelled in the whole of last year.

Issuances hit 46.2TWh in February, which was up by 38pc year on year and also the highest since 54TWh in March 2024. The 12-month rolling average for issuances rose to 26TWh last month from 25TWh in January.

Latin America

The number of cancelled I-RECs more than doubled on the year in Latin America to 29.1TWh in February, with issuances having risen by 43pc year on year to 27.4TWh.

Both demand and supply in Brazil climbed to about 21TWh last month, compared with less than 10TWh a year earlier. Total demand in January-February reached 23.4TWh, making Brazil the largest I-REC market so far in 2025 ahead of China, which accounted for the largest share last year.

Brazil is seeking to address slowing growth in its onshore wind sector, with new legislation expected to speed up the development of the country's first offshore wind projects. The government also has planned several auctions to boost the hydroelectric sector.

Argus assessments for current-year Brazilian wind and hydropower I-RECs averaged $0.20/MWh and $0.18/MWh, respectively, in February, each steady on the month.

Demand in Chile was at 1.6TWh last month, more than five times higher than a year earlier. Redemptions in Mexico and Colombia increased by about 55pc and 85pc on the year to 2.1TWh and 4TWh, respectively, in February.

Mexican prices continued to be volatile, with 2025 wind and solar I-RECs valued at $3.25/MWh at the end of last month, with offers in a wide range of $3.50-4.50/MWh and small volumes having changed hands at $4.15/MWh.

South Asia

I-REC cancellations in south Asian countries last month nearly tripled on the year to 1.83TWh.

India led most of this increase, with demand in the country having risen to 1.79TWh in February compared with just 565GWh a year earlier. Issuances rose more slowly, to 890GWh from 678GWh, with solar power accounting for more than half of the certificates issued last month and taking over from wind, which had accounted for the largest share in February last year.

Argus assessments for wind, solar and hydro I-RECs last month averaged $0.79/MWh and $0.86/MWh for the 2024 and 2025 vintages, respectively, having inched down by $0.01-0.03/MWh from January.

Asia-Pacific

Overall I-REC redemptions slipped by 22pc on the year in Asia-Pacific to 10.2TWh in February, although they edged up from 9.7TWh in January.

The decline was driven largely by Malaysia, where demand fell to 2.1TWh last month from 3.5TWh in February 2024. Redemptions also decreased in Singapore, by 80pc year on year to 136GWh last month.

Singapore and Malaysia in January agreed to study the formation of a credible framework that recognises renewable energy certificates (RECs) associated with cross-border electricity trade. But policy and regulatory gaps are hampering cross-border REC transactions in the region, according to the Asean Centre for Energy.

Argus assessed current-year Malaysian solar I-RECs at an average of $5.55/MWh in February, $0.24/MWh lower on the month. Average assessments for 2025 Singaporean solar I-RECs were down by $3.10/MWh on the month to $75/MWh in February.

Demand in China, where the use of I-RECs will officially cease after 31 March, was at about 6TWh in February, broadly steady on the month and on the year.

By Giulio Bajona

Global I-REC redemptions, Feb 2025 TWh

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