President Donald Trump's key energy advisers lavished praise and promises of deregulation on US oil and gas executives attending the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston last week. But his domestic and international policies, and failure to explain their desired outcomes, have created significant uncertainty for investors in the energy sector and the broader economy.
"I'm going to share two words that I don't think you have heard from a federal official in [former president Joe Biden's] administration during the last four years, and those two words are ‘Thank you'," interior secretary Doug Burgum told the conference. Burgum, appointed by Trump as chairman of a newly formed National Energy Dominance Council, projects that cutting oil and gas regulations and streamline permitting could trim $6-8/bl from US oil production costs.
Burgum's assessment of the savings that the regulatory overhaul would yield is a way to reconcile Trump's demands on the industry to lower oil prices and at the same time push US crude output beyond what are already record levels. Trump on 12 March celebrated oil prices falling to $65/bl as another major win — even though Nymex sweet crude futures were closer to $70/bl that day — and some members of his economic team are eyeing the $50/bl mark. His energy team says it does not have a specific price target, but "the actions of this administration are to make it easier to produce more oil and natural gas" and encourage producers to invest more, energy secretary Chris Wright told the CERAWeek conference.
Oil and gas executives for now appear grateful to be embraced by the White House, and attribute government interventions on trade and other fronts to the initial exuberance of a new administration. Wright's denunciation of what he called Biden's "irrational, quasi-religious climate policies" was well received and set the tone for the conference. Even Adnoc chief executive Sultan al-Jaber, who just two years ago labelled his fellow oil executives' view on climate change as problematic, recast the problem and pronounced it to be solved. "The world is finally waking up to the fact that energy is the solution," al-Jaber said.
Permitting pay-offs later...
But concerns about new sources of regulatory uncertainty are starting to mount. Approving specific pipeline and other energy projects by executive fiat needs to be backed by legislation that makes permitting reform possible, Chevron chief executive Mike Wirth told the conference. And Trump is making it increasingly difficult to pass off his tariff policies as a mere negotiating tactic. His trade actions are proving to be sticky — even the temporary relief for Canada tariffs has forced market participants to scramble to prove that the energy trade is covered by the US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement terms and is thus tariff-free, Alberta's minister of energy and minerals, Brian Jean, said.
OECD energy watchdog the IEA on 13 March downgraded its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025, noting a deterioration in macroeconomic conditions driven by rising trade tensions. The agency envisages a larger supply surplus as a result — a surplus that could be greater still, depending on Opec+ policy.
The Trump administration casts its declaration of an "energy emergency" as the best way to address long-standing complaints across the energy industry about the lengthy permitting process and multiple layers of federal and state-level oversight. "We will identify where the overlap is, we will identify where the overreach is... then we're going to help solve the problem and identify what else we can just get rid of in the federal government," Burgum told the conference.
But he and other administration officials have already indicated that they expect the main beneficiaries to be the oil, gas and coal industries, making it easier to expand production, authorise pipelines and approve new coal and gas-fired power plants, and to even force coal-fired plants that have already been mothballed to reopen. The Environmental Protection Agency on 12 March said it will revise more than 30 climate regulations that were issued under Biden, including CO2 limits for power plants and automobiles, national air quality standards and methane limits for the oil and gas sector.
Midstream company Williams' chief executive, Alan Armstrong, said that the permitting shortcuts outlined by the Trump administration would more than offset the higher cost of steel used in pipes as a result of new tariffs. Armstrong, who estimates permitting costs to be twice as high as the cost of pipeline materials, said that "we'd be glad to pay the 25pc tariffs as long as we can get the permits done". He also said he is hopeful that durable legislation relaxing infrastructure permitting rules will be passed under the new administration.
But industry group American Petroleum Institute president Mike Sommers, while praising Trump's deregulation agenda, offered a more sober outlook on the possibility of a long-discussed overhaul of federal permitting through federal legislation. Congress' failed effort to amend permitting laws last year "should be the basis upon which all other permitting bills are built", Sommers said. But, he cautioned, "we all have to be realistic about the partisan make-up of Congress and the difficulty of getting 60 votes" in the Senate, where the Republican majority is 53-47.
The new gas-fired power plants and nuclear power investment that Trump wants might prove insufficient for meeting surging US power demand for artificial intelligence (AI) data centres this decade, US utility NextEra chief executive John Ketchum said, noting his company's continued preference for adding renewable generation. "There's a timing difference… and there's a cost difference" between renewables and other generation sources, Ketchum said, noting that the cost of new gas-fired generation has more than tripled since 2022.
...uncertainty now
Oil and gas producers might feel reinvigorated by Trump's promise of deregulation, but energy traders say that his unpredictable actions on tariffs, foreign affairs and the economy are creating volatility in futures markets at a time of increased concern about the stability of investments made in the US. The Chicago Board Options Exchange's VIX volatility index — which uses options trades to track the likelihood of major stock market swings — has nearly doubled since Trump took office and hit a seven-month high last week.
The pace and breadth of Trump's agenda are "surprising even his most ardent supporters" and resulting in markets having "mixed feelings" over his policies, Futures Industry Association president Walt Lukken said on 10 March at the International Futures Industry Conference in Boca Raton, Florida. Lukken cited a recent survey of the industry group's members, which identified tariffs as the policy that could most negatively affect markets.
Trump's oft-repeated stated desires to annex Greenland and Canada and his willingness to allow Tesla chief executive Elon Musk to exert vast power in his administration without a clear conflict-of-interest policy have helped to further rattle investor confidence, European exchange Euronext's chief executive, Stephane Boujnah, said. US assets could start trading at a discount because of concerns over the rule of law and an "oligarch risk" that more usually exists in emerging markets, he said. "One of the features of the emerging market is that you invest, you own something, until the guy with gold who is close to the ruler wants it too," Boujnah said.
