A government-funded study has identified nine potential low-carbon and renewable options for the Grangemouth site in Scotland following the planned closure of its 150,000 b/d refinery in the second quarter this year.
The nine possible projects outlined in the Project Willow study centre around waste, bio-feedstocks and industries supporting the development of offshore wind. They could benefit each other through synergies and create up to 800 direct jobs, but their success "will require significant contributions from both the public and private sector", with an initial £3.5bn ($4.5bn) in capital investments needed, the study said.
The £1.5mn report, paid for by the UK and Scottish governments, was commissioned by Grangemouth refinery operator Petroineos, which announced in November 2023 that it was going to close the plant and convert it into a fuel import terminal.
The UK and Scottish governments have since set aside £25mn and £200mn for Grangemouth, along with other initiatives such as Scotland's £100mn Falkirk and Grangemouth Growth Deal package.
The study's 'waste' pathway comprises a hydrothermal plastic recycling project, a dissolution plastic recycling facility and a bio-refining project relying on bacterial fermentation (ABE).
Under the 'bio-feedstock' pathway, the study envisages a second-generation bioethanol plant on Scottish timber feedstock and an anaerobic digestion facility using organic waste to produce biomethane. Second-generation bioethanol refers to ethanol made from non-edible resources such as biomass. This pathway also suggests a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant, with production made from hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA).
UK trade union Unite has been supportive of this option, but Petroineos deemed it unviable "under current regulatory conditions".
The third pathway — called conduit for offshore wind — is mostly focused on hydrogen. It includes fuel switching, producing jet from e-methanol and methanol as well as producing low-carbon ammonia for the shipping and chemicals industry.
The second-generation ethanol plant and the HEFA facility, as well as the e-methanol and e-ammonia projects, would have a longer 2030-40 timeline, against a 2028-30 timeline for the other projects.
The projects would benefit from existing infrastructure such as Grangemouth's port, which includes container, bulk and liquid fuel terminals. "There are also opportunities to reuse existing tank storage, ethanol facilities, and other ancillary assets at the site," the study said.
Unite has criticised the study's project timelines, pointing out most would start years after the refinery had closed, by which time jobs would have been lost. Many of the projects "could be fast tracked and implemented now", including converting the refinery to SAF production, the union said.
"Project Willow was created by Petroineos as a fig leaf to justify its act of industrial vandalism of shutting the refinery and axing jobs. It asked the wrong questions and then failed to provide the answers that Grangemouth refinery workers need," Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said.
"There are projects like SAF production which can be swiftly enacted to protect jobs and those opportunities must not be lost. This would pave the way for the UK to become a world leader in green aviation."
