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EU mulls competitive metals decarbonisation

  • Market: Electricity, Emissions, Hydrogen, Metals
  • 19/03/25

The European Commission today presented its steel and metals action plan, setting out actions to boost the sector's decarbonisation while countering unfair competition from outside the bloc.

The plan has a strong focus on combatting global market distortion, whether in terms of trade or combined with circumvention of the bloc's emissions trading system (ETS) and carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM).

"We will strengthen the current safeguard clause. We aim for a reduction of up to 15pc in [steel] imports," said industry commissioner Stephane Sejourne. Aside from revised steel safeguard measures, trade actions include a ferro-alloys safeguards investigation "expeditiously" by 18 November. And the commission promises to assess whether the bloc's use of the lesser duty rule regime requires changes.

In addition to a CBAM scheme for exported goods, the measures also cover energy prices, decarbonisation through electrification and more flexible rules for low-carbon hydrogen. The commission promises revised rules to enable more EU states to provide indirect cost compensation for steel and aluminium firms for carbon costs passed on through electricity bills.

And Brussels wants EU states to lower costs for energy-intensive industries through network tariffs, facilitating power purchase agreements (PPAs) and lowering electricity taxation to zero. With direct electrification not always possible or cost-effective, the commission points to hydrogen as a key enabler of decarbonisation in the steel and metals industries.

Some measures have been toned down from drafts. The commission's plan no longer mentions implementing a melt and pour clause, "effective immediately". The commission will now "assess" whether it should adapt its practice by introducing a melted and poured rule, regardless of the place of subsequent transformation and origins.

But the commission now promises that the delegated act on low-carbon hydrogen will provide rules that are "as flexible as possible" to achieve greenhouse gas emission-reduction goals for low-carbon fuels in a "technology neutral way".

Industry association Hydrogen Europe welcomed the commission's direct acknowledgment of hydrogen as the best route to decarbonisation for primary steel production. "Labelling schemes, sustainability criteria, and dedicated funding mechanisms are necessary first steps to incentivise the offtake of green products," said Hydrogen Europe's industrial policy director Laurent Donceel.

The commission's paper sends a clear message that "a strong European Union needs a strong European steel industry", said Henrik Adam, president of European steel association Eurofer. But the association also called on the EU to implement "meaningful solutions through ambitious measures".


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20/03/25

Australia's Arafura secures new NdPr oxide offtake deal

Australia's Arafura secures new NdPr oxide offtake deal

Sydney, 20 March (Argus) — Australian producer Arafura Rare Earth will supply between 100-300 t/yr of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide to Dutch trader Traxys Europe, bringing the company closer to its offtake target of 3,552 t/yr. Arafura has agreed to supply at least 100 t/yr of NdPr oxide to Traxys for five years, but can choose to sell up to 300 t/yr of the material. The deal is priced in terms of NdPr ex-works China prices, the company said on 20 March. Arafura indicated that it planned to link offtake deals to equity agreements , it said in an investor call in January. But the offtake deal with Traxys does not appear to include an equity component. Arafura is currently developing the 4,400 t/yr Nolans project, a combined mine and NdPr refinery in Western Australia (WA). The company is aiming to secure offtake deals accounting for 80pc of the project's capacity. German manufacturer Siemens has already agreed to buy 520 t/yr of NdPr from Arafura, with South Korean firms Hyundai and Kia taking an additional 1,500 t/yr of the material. Arafura has committed to sell 2,320 t/yr of oxide from the Nolans project since 2023. Arafura is continuing to negotiate offtake agreements with Asian, European, and US consumers. Firms have expressed interest in buying up to 4,740 t/yr of NdPr oxide from the company, beyond the 2,320 t/yr already committed to customers and above Nolans' production capacity. The rare earth developer has received extensive government support on its Nolans project. Australia's federal Labor government agreed to invest A$200mn ($126mn) into the project in mid-January. It previously committed A$840mn to the project in March 2024. But Arafura is not alone. Australian officials have backed other rare earths projects over recent years, including Iluka Resources' Eneabba refinery in WA. Argus ' praseodymium-neodymium oxide min 99pc fob China price has been rising over the last three months. The price reached $61,850/t on 19 March, when it was last assessed, up from $54,500/t three months earlier. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Canberra backs Li battery projects in Western Australia


20/03/25
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20/03/25

Canberra backs Li battery projects in Western Australia

Sydney, 20 March (Argus) — Australia's federal government will partly underwrite four lithium-ion battery projects in Western Australia (WA), boosting the state's energy storage capacity by 2.6GWh from late 2027. Canberra is supporting the projects through its Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS), which sets a revenue floor on big battery projects for up to 15 years. The government has not revealed the specific revenue floors linked to the newly underwritten projects. Australian renewable energy developer PGS Energy will build the largest of the four newly-underwritten batteries, a 1.2GWh energy storage system in Marradong. The company's Marradong battery will be co-located with a solar farm and connected to WA's South West Interconnected System (Swis), a grid stretching across its most populous regions, once it becomes operational. French energy producer Neoen is also developing a 615MWh project just outside Perth, under the scheme. The company has been building large batteries across Australia, with public support, for multiple years. Its Collie Battery Energy Storage System is connected to Swis, and has been storing and discharging 877MWh of energy since October 2024. The two other batteries underwritten on 20 March are smaller, with a combined capacity of 780MWh, and located in rural parts of the state. The Australian government's latest funding announcement comes just months after it on 11 December 2024 underwrote eight other Australian battery projects capable of storing 3.6GWh of power under the CIS. Those projects were scattered across the country, covering three states but excluding WA. Canberra will also underwrite another set of batteries, with a combined capacity of 16GWh, in September. Over 100 projects, with a combined capacity of 135GWh, have applied to be part of CIS' September funding round. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US tariffs to slash Brazil's steel exports, output


19/03/25
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19/03/25

US tariffs to slash Brazil's steel exports, output

Sao Paulo, 19 March (Argus) — Brazil's steel exports and production could fall by 11pc and 2pc, respectively, in 2025 because of recently imposed 25pc US tariffs on all imported steel, according to national economic research institute Ipea. The decline in steel output resulting from the US import tariff is estimated at 700,000 metric tonnes (t)/yr, leading to an export loss of 1.6mn t, according to Ipea. Brazil was the US' top semi-finished steel supplier in 2024, shipping 3.4mn t of slabs there, which accounted for nearly 80pc of its total slab exports last year , according to customs data. The US tariffs will have a negligible impact on Brazil's overall exports and GDP, according to Ipea's study. The Chinese threat But Brazilian steelmakers are more concerned about Chinese imports than US tariffs. Chinese steel dumping causes greater harm to the industry and the economy than US tariffs, according to Brazilian steelmaker CSN's executive director Luis Fernando Barbosa Martinez. Brazil levied a 25pc import tariff on 11 steel products in June 2024 following the domestic steelmakers' push for safeguard measures. The move proved ineffective as imports hit record highs in 2024, nearly 70pc of which shipped from China . The government's import methodology, criticized for setting quotas by adding 30pc to the average steel imports from 2020-2022 for 11 products, is set to expire in two months. Importers and steelmakers are on opposite sides of the issue, with the former advocating against and the latter asking for more safeguards. Political implications Political dynamics are expected to influence steel prices just as much as the balance between supply and demand. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva — whose popularity has hit its lowest point across his three terms, just one year ahead of the 2026 elections — and vice-president Geraldo Alckmin — who also serves as trade minister — have been meeting with key stakeholders, including automakers, steelmakers and household appliance manufacturers, for the past two weeks. Automaker Stellantis recently announced R30bn ($530mn) in investments, while steelmakers pledged R100bn ($17bn) last year, aligned with the imposition of tariff quotas. Both sectors highlight their potential to create jobs. Steel industry chamber Instituto Aço Brasil warned of job losses and idled furnaces unless further measures are taken to weaken Chinese imports' flow. The steel industry supports 72,700 direct and 49,000 indirect jobs, according to the latest data from Instituto Aço Brasil. And the automotive sector currently accounts for 108,000 jobs, national association of motor vehicle manufacturers Anfavea said. Importers argued that additional tariffs may drive inflation and higher interest rates, as well as slash demand and harm the economy as a whole. By Isabel Filgueiras Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US Fed keeps rate flat, eyes 2 cuts in '25: Update


19/03/25
News
19/03/25

US Fed keeps rate flat, eyes 2 cuts in '25: Update

Adds Powell comments, economic projections. Houston, 19 March (Argus) — Federal Reserve policymakers held their target interest rate unchanged today in their second meeting of 2025, and signaled two quarter-point cuts are still likely this year. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50pc. This mirrored the decision made at the last FOMC meeting at the end of January, which followed rate cuts of 100 basis points over the last three meetings of 2024, which were the first cuts since 2020. "Our current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties we are looking at," Fed chair Jerome Powell told journalists after the meeting. "The economy seems to be healthy." Powell acknowledged some of the negative market sentiment in recent weeks, which he said "... probably has to do with turmoil at the beginning of an administration." "We kind of know there are going to be tariffs and they tend to bring growth down and they tend to bring inflation up," he said, but long-term inflation expectations are "well anchored." In December the Fed said it expected 50 basis points worth of cuts for 2025, down from 100 basis points projected in the September median economic projections of Fed board members and Fed bank presidents. Policymakers and Fed officials Wednesday lowered their estimate for GDP growth this year to 1.7pc from a prior estimate of 2.1pc in the December economic projections. They see inflation rising to 2.7pc for 2025 from the prior estimate of 2.5pc. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Swedish wind output structurally shifts Nordic hydro


19/03/25
News
19/03/25

Swedish wind output structurally shifts Nordic hydro

London, 19 March (Argus) — Higher Swedish wind output is a structural supply shift that could support Norwegian hydro stocks over the long term, as recent record hydro reserves come despite below-average rainfall between October 2024 and February 2025. Combined Nordic hydropower reserves have held a surplus to the 10-year maximum for eight of the first 10 weeks of 2025, peaking at seven percentage points in week 10, as Norwegian hydro reserves unexpectedly increased from a week earlier. Reserves across Finland, Norway and Sweden closed week 10 at 55.6pc of capacity, seven percentage points above any other week in the previous 10 years and 5.1 percentage points higher than in 2008, the next highest year. Hydro production in Norway fell on the year in 2024, dropping to an average of 12.1GW, down from 12.2GW in 2023 and around 7pc below the five-year average of 12.9pc. Tighter hydro conditions in the first half of the year weighed on generation. Still, in the final six months of 2024, hydro reservoir output also fell on the year, dropping by 4pc to an average of 11.4GW, down from 11.9GW. That is despite combined Nordic reserves last year holding an average stock surplus of 5.2 percentage points to 2023 between weeks 34 and 52. At the same time, Swedish wind output increased to an average of 4.6GW last year, up by 18pc on the year from 3.9GW a year earlier and ending last year around 34pc higher than the five-year average. Higher wind generation weighs significantly on regional day-ahead prices and discourages hydro production by lowering the spot below the perceived water value of stored hydropower capacity. Rising wind capacity and its effect on the power mix is particularly notable during the first and fourth winter quarters, with generally the highest prices, with Swedish wind output averaging 5.8GW last year between January and March and October and December, up by 22pc from the equivalent periods in 2022. That displacement represents a structural supply shift in the Nordic power market that can support hydro reserves beyond rain and temperature outlook patterns going forward and during below-average precipitation periods, as the call for hydro production falls in hours when wind output is highest that — before significant wind capacity additions in Sweden — were routine output hours. Furthermore, higher run-of-river generation last year, up by 8pc in 2024 compared with a year earlier to an average of 3.4GW, captures the higher stock feed-in and water volumes that supported Nordic reservoirs in 2024 leading into 2025 and emphasises that, like wind output, run-of-river, which is generally not dispatchable undermines the regional spot price and reduces the call for reservoir hydro output. Norwegian hydro production last week peaked at 19.7GW on 13 March and averaged 17.9GW between 10 and 16 March, exceeding the monthly average of 15.9GW in March so far. Higher Norwegian hydro output was directly correlated with lower Swedish wind generation on those days, with Swedish average daily wind generation falling to 1.1GW and 1.5GW on 12 March and 13 March, respectively, while Norwegian hydro output topped 19GW on both days. By 15 and 16 March, Norwegian hydro production fell back to 16.6GW and 14.5GW, as Swedish wind generation rose to 7.6GW and 8.2GW. Unseasonably high reserves have consistently weighed on summer delivery power contracts and supported a substantial €59.20/MWh discount for Nordic June to the German equivalent on 18 March and an average discount of €59.13/MWh between 3 and 18 March. The Nordic third quarter last closed at a €66.10/MWh discount to the German equivalent and has averaged €67.23/MWh below Germany's front quarter over the previous 30 days. Reserves ended last month at 57.8pc of total capacity, some 3.4 percentage points above the 10-year maximum and in Norway, reserves were just 0.5 percentage points below the long-term national maximum, with stocks since switching to a 2.8 percentage point surplus to the maximum in week 10 and a 2.4 percentage point surplus in week 11. This was despite precipitation between October and February being up on the year, it remained below the region's seasonal norm by nearly 20.6mm, with rainfall in Bergen over the same period below the average in four of the past five years. Precipitation over the five months last exceeded the seasonal norm in 2022, totalling 1,804.8mm and registering a 422.9mm surplus to the average. But at February's close, hydro reserves in 2022 were 17.2 percentage points below the equivalent week in 2025, underscoring increased Swedish wind output's impact over the 2024-25 season. By Daniel Craig Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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