US Fed keeps rate unchanged, signals 2 cuts this year

Market: Agriculture, Metals, Natural gas
19/03/25

Federal Reserve policymakers held their target interest rate unchanged today in their second meeting of 2025, and signaled two quarter-point cuts are still likely this year.

The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50pc. This mirrored the decision made at the last FOMC meeting at the end of January, which followed cutting the rate by 100 basis points in the last three meetings of 2024, which were the first cuts since 2020.

In December last year, the Fed penciled-in 50 basis points worth of cuts for 2025, down from 100 basis points projected in the September median economic projections of Fed board members and Fed bank presidents.

By Bob Willis

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

02/05/25

US adds 177,000 jobs in April, jobless rate steady

Houston, 2 May (Argus) — The US added 177,000 jobs in April, topping expectations, even as the new US administration's campaign of tariffs against allies and trading partners heightened business and consumer uncertainty. Economists surveyed by Trading Economics had forecast job gains of 130,000 for April. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2pc in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported. Job gains for March were revised lower by 43,000 to 185,000. The unexpectedly strong job report comes two days after the government reported the economy contracted at a 0.3pc annual rate in the first quarter, largely on a surge in imports as companies sought to build inventory ahead of the impacts of President Donald Trump's import tariffs. Consumer and business confidence have tumbled and economists have raised the odds of a US recession this year. US job gains averaged 152,000 in the 12 months prior to April. Federal government employment declined by 9,000 jobs in April and has fallen by 26,000 since January as mass federal layoffs take effect. Employees on paid leave or receiving severance pay are counted as employed, BLS said, so most of the announced federal job cuts do not yet show up in the data. Health care added 51,000 jobs in April, while transportation and warehousing added 29,000 jobs, more than double the average in the prior 12 months. Financial activities added 14,000 jobs. Construction added 11,000 jobs and manufacturing lost 1,000 jobs. Leisure and hospitality jobs grew by 24,000 and health care and social assistance added 78,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by a 3.8pc annual rate, unchanged from the pace in March. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

Shell says can deliver solid returns below $50/bl

02/05/25

News

02/05/25

Shell says can deliver solid returns below $50/bl

London, 2 May (Argus) — Shell can pull on several levers to maintain shareholder returns in a sub-$50/bl oil price environment, including adjusting capital expenditure (capex), chief financial officer Sinead Gorman said today. Shell is facing questions about contingency plans for lower oil prices after Ice Brent crude futures briefly dipped below $60/bl in intraday trading earlier this week for only the second time in more than four years. Oil prices are not only under pressure from weakening global economic growth prospects due to US import tariffs, but also from the Opec+ group's decision to bring back production faster than previously flagged. At $50/bl, Shell's commitment to return 40-50pc of its cash flows to shareholders would mean $8bn/yr of dividends and $6bn-7bn/yr of share buybacks, while only having to pull back "a little bit" on capex, Gorman said. In a $40/bl oil price environment, Gorman expects Shell's operating cash flow to still cover the $8bn/yr in dividends. "But of course, for us, the important thing is to be able to try and maintain the buyback for as long as we can," she said. At these lower oil prices, Shell can make use of its comparatively strong balance sheet to support share buybacks. Shell's debt gearing remained below 19pc at the end of the first quarter despite the company increasing its net debt during the period. "Are we comfortable leaning on the balance sheet? Yes," chief executive Wael Sawan said. The balance sheet has been positioned so it can be used to generate shareholder value, "whether that shareholder value is best created through more buybacks, or whether that shareholder value is created through an inorganic [investment] or the like", he said. For now, Shell is sticking to its $20bn-$22bn capex budget for 2025 and expects to carry on with planned investments in projects and other commitments. But the company has demonstrated in the recent past "a strong ability to be able to pull many levers" should oil prices fall futher, Gordon said, referencing the reduction in capex to below $18bn during the Covid pandemic. "So, the flex is there, but that's not the position we're in at the moment. We don't need to do that and we see great opportunities for value," she said, pointing to the company's announcement earlier this year that it is raising its stake in the Ursa oil project in the US Gulf of Mexico. Earlier today, Shell said it is maintaining its quarterly dividend at 35.8¢/share and will continue to buy back its shares at a rate of $3.5bn/quarter, despite a 35pc drop in its first-quarter profit to $4.8bn. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Shell’s 1Q European gas production up

02/05/25

News

02/05/25

Shell’s 1Q European gas production up

London, 2 May (Argus) — Shell's European gas production for sale in January-March slightly stepped up on the year, but the company expects works to limit global oil and gas production this quarter. Shell produced 24.9mn m³/d in the first quarter, up from 24.8mn m³/d a year earlier but below the 25.2mn m³/d in fourth-quarter 2024. Shell has stakes in UK and Dutch fields, as well as a 17.8pc share in Norway's Ormen Lange field and an 8.1pc stake in the giant Troll field. Output from the two Norwegian fields was down on the year in January-February, the latest months for which data are available. Ormen Lange produced 19.8mn m³/d in January-February, down from 22.6mn m³/d a year earlier. Troll production averaged 123.6mn m³/d over those two months, also down from 126.2mn m³/d a year earlier. Shell's integrated gas business was the company's top performing segment with profits of $2.8bn, slightly higher on the year. Lighter maintenance at the Pearl gas-to-liquids plant in Qatar supported production, but unplanned works and weather constraints in Australia left the company's LNG volumes at 6.6mn t in January-March from 7.6mn t a year earlier, Shell said. Meanwhile, Shell's upstream division posted $2.1bn in profit, down 8.5pc on the year earlier but double compared with the fourth quarter 2024. The segment was hit with a $509mn tax bill related to the UK's Energy Profits Levy in the first quarter, partially offset by gains from asset sales. Across the entire company, Shell reported first-quarter profits adjusted for inventory valuation effects and one-off items of $5.6bn, surpassing analysts' expectations of $5.3bn . Shell's first-quarter worldwide oil, liquids and gas production was 2.84mn boe/d, down from 2.91mn boe/d a year earlier but up from 2.82mn boe/d in the previous quarter. The company expects lower oil and gas production this quarter in a 2.45mn-2.71mn boe/d range because of maintenance across its integrated gas portfolio and an absence of volumes from its SPDC business in Nigeria, which Shell sold off in March. By Aleksandra Godlewska and Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Shell’s 1Q profit falls but beats expectations

02/05/25

News

02/05/25

Shell’s 1Q profit falls but beats expectations

London, 2 May (Argus) — Shell's Integrated Gas business segment delivered a solid performance in the first quarter, helping the UK major exceed analysts' earnings estimates despite ongoing struggles in its downstream Chemicals and Products business. Shell reported a first-quarter profit of $4.8bn, down from $7.4bn a year earlier. Adjusted for inventory valuation effects and one-off items, profit was $5.6bn, surpassing analysts' expectations of $5.3bn. Integrated Gas was Shell's top-performing segment, with a profit of $2.8bn, slightly higher than the first quarter of 2024. Production was down by 6.6pc year-on-year at 927,000 b/d oil equivalent (boe/d), but up 2pc from the previous quarter. Less maintenance at the Pearl gas-to-liquids plant in Qatar had a positive impact on production, Shell said. But the company's LNG volumes were affected by unplanned maintenance and weather constraints in Australia, falling to 6.6mn t from 7.6mn t a year earlier. The Upstream segment posted a profit of $2.1bn, down by 8.5pc on a year earlier but double what it made in the fourth quarter of 2024. The segment was hit with a $509mn tax charge related to the UK's Energy Profits Levy in the first quarter, partially offset by gains from asset sales. Production for the segment was slightly down compared to a year earlier at 1.86mn boe/d, partly due to the divestment of Shell's SPDC business in Nigeria. Overall, Shell's first-quarter production was 2.84mn boe/d, down from 2.91mn boe/d a year earlier but up from 2.82mn boe/d in the previous quarter. Shell expects lower production in the current quarter, ranging from 2.45mn boe/d to 2.71mn boe/d due to maintenance across its Integrated Gas portfolio and the absence of volumes from the SPDC business. The Chemicals and Products segment reported a $77mn loss for the first quarter, compared to a $1.3bn profit a year earlier. Refinery runs were down by 4.8pc year-on-year, and chemicals sales volumes were marginally lower. Despite persistent low margins in the downstream, Shell noted that refining and chemicals margins improved compared to the fourth quarter. Shell expects capital spending for 2025 to be within a $20bn-$22bn range, in line with last year's spending. The company is maintaining its dividend at 35.8¢/share and its share buyback programme at $3.5bn a quarter. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

South Australia closes Hydrogen Power SA office

02/05/25

News

02/05/25

South Australia closes Hydrogen Power SA office

Sydney, 2 May (Argus) — The state government of South Australia has rolled its Office of Hydrogen Power SA (OHPSA) into the Department of Energy and Mining (DEM), after scrapping plans for a 250MW electrolyser and 200MW hydrogen-fired power station. The OHPSA has been absorbed into the other state department, a spokesperson for SA energy minister Tom Koutsantonis said on 2 May. This comes after the state cut the A$593mn ($381mn) it had promised for its Hydrogen Jobs Plan in early 2025. The funds were reallocated to subsidise the 1.2mn t/yr Whyalla steelworks, which entered administration on 19 February . The associated Office of Northern Water Delivery, which was intended to support the green hydrogen sector in the state's upper Spencer Gulf region with new water pipeline supply, has also been incorporated within the DEM, Koutsantonis said on 1 May. SA's other major hydrogen hub planned at nearby Port Bonython was also overseen by the OHPSA. Development agreements with five companies have been signed for Port Bonython, including with London-based energy company Zero Petroleum for an e-SAF plant . SA is aiming to transition the ageing Whyalla steelworks to develop low emissions iron and steel products, but administrator KordaMentha is yet to finalise a buyer for Whyalla's controlling company OneSteel, which was formerly owned by UK-based GFG Alliance. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more