US Fed keeps rate unchanged, signals 2 cuts this year

Market: Agriculture, Metals, Natural gas
19/03/25

Federal Reserve policymakers held their target interest rate unchanged today in their second meeting of 2025, and signaled two quarter-point cuts are still likely this year.

The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50pc. This mirrored the decision made at the last FOMC meeting at the end of January, which followed cutting the rate by 100 basis points in the last three meetings of 2024, which were the first cuts since 2020.

In December last year, the Fed penciled-in 50 basis points worth of cuts for 2025, down from 100 basis points projected in the September median economic projections of Fed board members and Fed bank presidents.

By Bob Willis

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19/03/25

US tariffs to slash Brazil's steel exports, output

Sao Paulo, 19 March (Argus) — Brazil's steel exports and production could fall by 11pc and 2pc, respectively, in 2025 because of recently imposed 25pc US tariffs on all imported steel, according to national economic research institute Ipea. The decline in steel output resulting from the US import tariff is estimated at 700,000 metric tonnes (t)/yr, leading to an export loss of 1.6mn t, according to Ipea. Brazil was the US' top semi-finished steel supplier in 2024, shipping 3.4mn t of slabs there, which accounted for nearly 80pc of its total slab exports last year , according to customs data. The US tariffs will have a negligible impact on Brazil's overall exports and GDP, according to Ipea's study. The Chinese threat But Brazilian steelmakers are more concerned about Chinese imports than US tariffs. Chinese steel dumping causes greater harm to the industry and the economy than US tariffs, according to Brazilian steelmaker CSN's executive director Luis Fernando Barbosa Martinez. Brazil levied a 25pc import tariff on 11 steel products in June 2024 following the domestic steelmakers' push for safeguard measures. The move proved ineffective as imports hit record highs in 2024, nearly 70pc of which shipped from China . The government's import methodology, criticized for setting quotas by adding 30pc to the average steel imports from 2020-2022 for 11 products, is set to expire in two months. Importers and steelmakers are on opposite sides of the issue, with the former advocating against and the latter asking for more safeguards. Political implications Political dynamics are expected to influence steel prices just as much as the balance between supply and demand. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva — whose popularity has hit its lowest point across his three terms, just one year ahead of the 2026 elections — and vice-president Geraldo Alckmin — who also serves as trade minister — have been meeting with key stakeholders, including automakers, steelmakers and household appliance manufacturers, for the past two weeks. Automaker Stellantis recently announced R30bn ($530mn) in investments, while steelmakers pledged R100bn ($17bn) last year, aligned with the imposition of tariff quotas. Both sectors highlight their potential to create jobs. Steel industry chamber Instituto Aço Brasil warned of job losses and idled furnaces unless further measures are taken to weaken Chinese imports' flow. The steel industry supports 72,700 direct and 49,000 indirect jobs, according to the latest data from Instituto Aço Brasil. And the automotive sector currently accounts for 108,000 jobs, national association of motor vehicle manufacturers Anfavea said. Importers argued that additional tariffs may drive inflation and higher interest rates, as well as slash demand and harm the economy as a whole. By Isabel Filgueiras Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US Fed keeps rate flat, eyes 2 cuts in '25: Update

19/03/25

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19/03/25

US Fed keeps rate flat, eyes 2 cuts in '25: Update

Adds Powell comments, economic projections. Houston, 19 March (Argus) — Federal Reserve policymakers held their target interest rate unchanged today in their second meeting of 2025, and signaled two quarter-point cuts are still likely this year. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50pc. This mirrored the decision made at the last FOMC meeting at the end of January, which followed rate cuts of 100 basis points over the last three meetings of 2024, which were the first cuts since 2020. "Our current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties we are looking at," Fed chair Jerome Powell told journalists after the meeting. "The economy seems to be healthy." Powell acknowledged some of the negative market sentiment in recent weeks, which he said "... probably has to do with turmoil at the beginning of an administration." "We kind of know there are going to be tariffs and they tend to bring growth down and they tend to bring inflation up," he said, but long-term inflation expectations are "well anchored." In December the Fed said it expected 50 basis points worth of cuts for 2025, down from 100 basis points projected in the September median economic projections of Fed board members and Fed bank presidents. Policymakers and Fed officials Wednesday lowered their estimate for GDP growth this year to 1.7pc from a prior estimate of 2.1pc in the December economic projections. They see inflation rising to 2.7pc for 2025 from the prior estimate of 2.5pc. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU mulls competitive metals decarbonisation

19/03/25

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19/03/25

EU mulls competitive metals decarbonisation

Brussels, 19 March (Argus) — The European Commission today presented its steel and metals action plan, setting out actions to boost the sector's decarbonisation while countering unfair competition from outside the bloc. The plan has a strong focus on combatting global market distortion, whether in terms of trade or combined with circumvention of the bloc's emissions trading system (ETS) and carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). "We will strengthen the current safeguard clause. We aim for a reduction of up to 15pc in [steel] imports," said industry commissioner Stephane Sejourne. Aside from revised steel safeguard measures , trade actions include a ferro-alloys safeguards investigation "expeditiously" by 18 November. And the commission promises to assess whether the bloc's use of the lesser duty rule regime requires changes. In addition to a CBAM scheme for exported goods , the measures also cover energy prices, decarbonisation through electrification and more flexible rules for low-carbon hydrogen. The commission promises revised rules to enable more EU states to provide indirect cost compensation for steel and aluminium firms for carbon costs passed on through electricity bills. And Brussels wants EU states to lower costs for energy-intensive industries through network tariffs, facilitating power purchase agreements (PPAs) and lowering electricity taxation to zero. With direct electrification not always possible or cost-effective, the commission points to hydrogen as a key enabler of decarbonisation in the steel and metals industries. Some measures have been toned down from drafts. The commission's plan no longer mentions implementing a melt and pour clause , "effective immediately". The commission will now "assess" whether it should adapt its practice by introducing a melted and poured rule, regardless of the place of subsequent transformation and origins. But the commission now promises that the delegated act on low-carbon hydrogen will provide rules that are "as flexible as possible" to achieve greenhouse gas emission-reduction goals for low-carbon fuels in a "technology neutral way". Industry association Hydrogen Europe welcomed the commission's direct acknowledgment of hydrogen as the best route to decarbonisation for primary steel production. "Labelling schemes, sustainability criteria, and dedicated funding mechanisms are necessary first steps to incentivise the offtake of green products," said Hydrogen Europe's industrial policy director Laurent Donceel. The commission's paper sends a clear message that "a strong European Union needs a strong European steel industry", said Henrik Adam, president of European steel association Eurofer. But the association also called on the EU to implement "meaningful solutions through ambitious measures". By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Turkish lira at all-time low against dollar

19/03/25

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19/03/25

Turkish lira at all-time low against dollar

London, 19 March (Argus) — Turkey's lira currency fell to record lows against the US dollar today, after the arrest of Istanbul's mayor provoked concern about instability. The depreciation could cause imports of dollar-denominated commodities to become more expensive, although reaction was mixed across markets. The lira went as low at 40/$1 in early trading, from below 37/$1 on Tuesday 18 March, before easing to around 38/$1 later in the day. The lira has been slowly depreciating against the dollar for many years, but the sharp fall today came after Ekrem Imamoglu, one of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main political rivals, was held on suspicion of corruption and aiding a terrorist organisation. Turkey is a significant importer of natural gas, crude and LPG, as well as coal and petcoke, although demand for many commodities will be muted currently because of the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan. Early indications from the coal and petcoke markets were that all import trades had halted as the lira hit the record low. In polymers markets the focus is on whether demand recovers after Ramadan ends on 30 March. But a trading source in Turkey said the fall is not enough for "massive changes" to imports of oil products. The OECD forecasts headline inflation in Turkey at 31.4pc this year, the highest among its members, easing to 17.3pc in 2026. The IMF has forecast Turkey's economy will grow by 2.6pc this year, after an expansion of 2.7pc in 2024. By Ben Winkley, Aydin Calik, Joseph Clarke, Amaar Khan and Dila Odluyurt Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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India proposes 12pc safeguard duty on steel imports

19/03/25

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19/03/25

India proposes 12pc safeguard duty on steel imports

Mumbai, 19 March (Argus) — India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) has recommended a 12pc provisional safeguard duty on flat steel imports to protect the domestic industry. The duty should be imposed for 200 days, according to a notice on 18 March from the DGTR, which is the government's investigative agency. The agency has recommended putting the safeguard measures in place immediately, citing potential damage resulting from any delays. The proposed duty is lower than the 25pc rate sought by Indian steel mills to restrict inflows of cheaper imports that have pressured company profits. The DGTR launched the safeguard investigation in December following an application by the Indian Steel Association. The agency concluded that there has been a "recent, sudden, sharp and significant increase in imports" of the products under investigation, which include hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils and sheets as well as galvanized and color-coated steel. Section 232 restrictions imposed by the US in 2018 and a flurry of protectionist measures by other countries have led to a diversion of trade flows to India, boosting imports, the agency said. For hot-rolled coil (HRC), the proposed safeguard duty will not be applicable if product is imported at or above $675/t on a cif basis, the agency said. Expectations of safeguard duties was one of the reasons for a recent jump in domestic HRC prices, which had fallen to multi-year lows in 2024 because of cheaper imports and lackluster domestic demand. Several Indian steel market participants had said the outlook for Indian steel prices was bearish in the absence of safeguards. Argus assessed weekly Indian domestic 2.5-4.0mm HRC at 50,150 rupees/t ($579/t) ex-Mumbai, excluding goods and services tax, on 14 March, a rise of nearly 5pc compared to the end of February. India became a net steel importer in the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year and has remained so in the current fiscal year, which ends in March. Over April 2024-January 2025, finished steel imports rose by 21pc on the year to 8.4mn t, with South Korea being the biggest supplier. South Korea, China and Japan accounted for more than three-quarters of India's total finished steel imports during the last ten months, according to ministry data. China and Vietnam will be the only developing nations that will incur duties, while others will be exempt, according to the DGTR's recommendations. This is because among developing countries, only China and Vietnam individually account for more than 3pc of imports into India, while other developing countries collectively do not have a more than 9pc share of imports, the agency said. A hearing will be scheduled ahead of a final decision on safeguards, the DGTR said. By Amruta Khandekar Proposed safeguard duty threshold Product Import price (cif) Hot-rolled coils, sheets and plates $675/t Hot-rolled plate mill plates $695/t Cold-rolled coils and sheets $824/t Metallic coated coils and sheets $861/t Colour coated coils and sheets $964/t Safeguard duties will not be imposed if the product is imported at or above cif price levels Source: DGTR Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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