Rebuilding India's DAP inventories remains an uphill struggle as the latest subsidies and current market prices keep importers' and many producers' margins in the red, despite a rise in the subsidy. India will have to keep relying on NPKs/NPs to cover much of its phosphate needs.
The Indian government has set the nutrient-based subsidy (NBS) for DAP for the April-September kharif season at 27,799 rupees/t. This is an increase of Rs5,888/t from the base subsidy for the October-March rabi season.
The government will probably extend the Rs3,500/t special additional subsidy for DAP into kharif, bringing the total subsidy for DAP up to Rs31,299/t. The maximum retail price (MRP) for DAP will remain at Rs27,000/t.
DAP importers face losses
The new subsidy rate, including the special additional subsidy, brings the breakeven import price for DAP to the low $600s/t cfr at the current exchange rate and MRP. This is well below the latest concluded level in the high $640s/t cfr, and almost $60/t below latest offers.
Without the Rs3,500/t special additional subsidy, the breakeven import price would be around $563/t cfr.
The government will probably commit to compensating importers for losses on DAP over kharif, but there has not yet been official confirmation. The department of fertilizers said in September last year that it would compensate importers for losses on DAP over rabi. But some importers said that they have not yet received this compensation.
NPKs more attractive for many producers
Indian DAP producers using phosphoric acid and ammonia imported at $1,153/t P2O5 cfr and $350/t cfr, respectively, now face losses of $25/t, given the current NBS, MRP and exchange rate.
The second-quarter contract price for merchant-grade phosphoric acid to India is up by $98/t P2O5 from the first-quarter price of $1,055/t P2O5 cfr. The rise in the acid price was driven by soaring sulphur costs, firmer sentiment for DAP and falling ammonia prices — which are down from a midpoint of $440/t cfr at the start of the calendar year.
Those producers using phosphoric acid will be drawn to the profits to be gained from making NPKs. The new subsidies for 10-26-26 and 12-32-16 are Rs16,257/t and Rs19,495/t, respectively. Both grades have an MRP of Rs35,000/t.
At current phosphoric acid, ammonia and potash — with MOP at $283/t cfr with 180 days credit — import costs and exchange rates, Indian producers would see profits of around $48/t for 10-26-26 and $54/t for 12-32-16.
DAP producers using imported phosphate rock, sulphur and ammonia will make a profit. Producers importing 30-31pc P2O5 phosphate rock at $153/t cfr, dry bulk sulphur at $280/t and ammonia at $350/t cfr now see margins of around $66/t.
Phosphate rock prices have held broadly steady over recent quarters. The fall in ammonia costs has helped to counter the bull run in the global sulphur market, which has pushed up dry bulk sulphur cfr prices in India by $91/t at the midpoint since the beginning of 2025.
Without the Rs3,500/t special additional subsidy on DAP, the loss for producers using imported phosphoric acid and ammonia would rise to around $66/t. And the margin for producers using imported phosphate rock, sulphur and ammonia would fall to around $25/t.
Producers generally cannot switch between using phosphoric acid and using phosphate rock and sulphur.
The Indian government did not cover the losses incurred by DAP producers over rabi — forcing many producers to turn to making NPKs/NPs instead. Although speculation has emerged that the government will compensate producers over kharif, there has been no official indication either way.
DAP stocks to remain low
Provisional data indicate that India ended March with around 1.3mn t of DAP in stock, still well below the perceived comfortable minimum of 2mn t.
Indian distributors will want to build DAP stocks ahead of the peak offtake season — beginning around June. But while importers and producers continue to face losses, stocks will remain low and many farmers will again have to settle for NPKs/NPs as an alternative source of phosphate.
