Oil, stock markets slump as tariffs take effect: Update

Market: Crude oil
07/04/25

Updates with latest oil prices, stock market declines

Oil futures and stock markets fell sharply again on Monday after the first tranche of US import tariffs came into force.

Crude oil futures fell by almost 5pc, with US benchmark crude WTI futures dropping below $60/bl to a new four-year low.

Stock markets in Asia and Europe also dropped sharply. Markets in China — which were closed for a holiday at the end of last week — dropped by around 10pc, while Japanese and South Korean exchanges fell by up to 8pc.

The sell-off in crude futures accelerated when markets in Europe opened, in line with big drops in the continent's stock markets. Germany's Dax stock exchange fell by as much as 10pc, while the UK FTSE 100 dropped by up to 6pc. Shares in oil majors BP and Shell were up to 9pc lower.

US president Donald Trump's 10pc tariff on imports from all countries took effect on 5 April, with exemptions for some commodities. What Trump has described as "reciprocal" tariffs targeting some of the US' biggest trade partners are due to enter into force at 12:01 ET (04:01 GMT) on 9 April.

Trump has given no indication that he will cancel or postpone the tariffs, despite the market turmoil in recent days, although he has held out prospects of negotiated reductions with some countries.

The president denied on 6 April that he is crashing the markets deliberately. "But sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something," he told reporters.

China announced its own 34pc tariffs on all US imports late on 4 April, adding to the pressure on financial markets. Beijing will continue to take "resolute measures" to protect its interests, state-owned media reported over the weekend.

China is the only major US trading partner that has so far retaliated against the US tariffs. Several other countries in Asia have said they do not plan to retaliate or have asked Trump to delay the tariffs.

Benchmark crude futures have now fallen by up to 18pc since Trump announced his tariffs. Crude oil came under additional pressure on 7 April after Saudi Arabia's state-controlled producer Saudi Aramco reduced its official formula prices for May-loading cargoes, including particularly sharp cuts for buyers in Asia.

The front-month June Brent contract on Ice fell by 4.7pc to a low of $62.51/bl. The Nymex front-month May crude contract fell to $58.95/bl, the lowest since April 2021.

By Kevin Foster

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Calgary, 10 April (Argus) — The US light sweet crude benchmark will be nearly $7/bl lower this year than previously expected, with an ongoing trade war stifling global demand by nearly 500,000 b/d, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said today. WTI at Cushing, Oklahoma, is expected to average $63.88/bl in 2025, the agency said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), lower by $6.80/bl from its March forecast. It will fall further to $57.48/bl in 2026, or $7.49/bl lower from the prior STEO. Brent prices saw similar downward revisions and is now forecast at $67.68/bl in 2025 and $61.48/bl in 2026. The latest STEO was to be released on 8 April, but the EIA said it needed more time to rerun its models in light of last week's sweeping tariff action by US president Donald Trump and subsequent retaliation by China. The protectionist measures have led major banks to cut oil price forecasts amid growing concerns over a stagnating US economy. The EIA completed its analysis on 7 April meaning it did not incorporate the most recent developments, including Trump's 9 April pause on the highest levels of punitive tariffs against key US trading partners and an increase in Chinese tariffs . The latest forecast is "subject to significant uncertainty," said the EIA. Global consumption of oil and liquid fuels is now expected to average 103.64mn b/d in 2025, lower by 490,000 b/d from the previous forecast. Consumption in 2026 is forecast at 104.68mn b/d, lower by 620,000 b/d. Global production meanwhile was lowered by to 104.1mn b/d for 2025 and to 105.35mn b/d for 2026. These are lower from the prior forecast by 70,000 b/d and 43,000 b/d, respectively. In the US, domestic consumption is projected to average 20.38mn b/d in 2025, lower by 70,000 b/d compared to last month's STEO. Consumption was lowered for 2026 by 110,000 b/d at 20.49mn b/d. Domestic production will come in at 13.51mn b/d in 2025 and 13.56mn b/d in 2026, the EIA said. This is lower by 100,000 b/d and 200,000 b/d, respectively, compared to the March STEO. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Norway plans to cut GHGs, but remain oil, gas producer

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Colombian crude gains on US tariff uncertainty

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Colombian crude gains on US tariff uncertainty

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