Evolving semiconductor technologies and growing chip consumption across a range of applications are changing demand and supply dynamics in several minor metal markets, delegates heard at the Minor Metals Trade Association's annual conference in Lisbon last week.
In the hafnium market, demand from the semiconductor industry could surpass that of super-alloys for the largest share of demand in the next five years, metal and alloy producer Nanoscale Powders president Andrew Matheson said.
Semiconductor demand for hafnium could climb to 64 t/yr by 2030, up by 24pc from 40 t/yr in 2024, outpacing 5pc growth in nickel super-alloy demand to 60 t/yr from 45 t/yr. This would also outpace 3pc growth in critical nuclear uses to 18 t/yr.
It is unclear whether there is sufficient room to expand hafnium supply to meet the projected demand growth, Matheson said. Global production totalled about 138t in 2024, well below estimated nameplate capacity of 245t.
Hafnium and compounds including hafnium oxide (HfO2) have several uses in semiconductor manufacturing, including as a gate insulator in field-effect transistors; in dynamic random-access memory capacitors to enhance capacitance, reduce power leakage and act as a protective barrier layer; and in filaments, electrodes and ultra-thin films in semiconductor fabrication. HfO2 can retain data even without power, providing potential for new types of non-volatile memory.
As a result, general growth in semiconductor demand in a range of electronics, telecommunications, automotive and industrial applications is set to boost hafnium demand in semiconductor manufacturing. In addition, growing demand for memory capacity for artificial intelligence (AI), as well as new storage technologies, could drive hafnium demand further. At the same time, growing demand for standalone power generation to serve AI data centres also could lift demand for hafnium in super-alloys, Matheson said.
In the indium market, the use of indium phosphide-based fibre optics to replace copper interconnects to meet the requirements of high-speed AI data transfer is creating a new source of demand. Indium-based compounds such as indium arsenide, indium gallium arsenide and indium gallium nitride are used in integrated circuits, lasers and light-emitting diodes (LEDs) for electronic and electro-optical applications. Indium alloys also are used as thermal interface materials to improve heat dissipation in electronic devices.
Semiconductor applications account for about 10pc of global indium consumption, and as the liquid crystal display display market has matured, chip demand will be one of the drivers of the indium market's 2-3pc annual growth rate, according to Brian O'Neill, indium business unit manager at AIM Products.
Semiconductor demand has contributed to a larger structural change in the global gallium market.
Total gallium production capacity has more than tripled since 2016 from about 300 t/yr to more than 1,100 t/yr, driven by expansion in China, according to Jan Giese, senior manager for minor metals and rare earths at German trading firm Tradium. Gallium exports from China have steadily decreased since 2018, dropping further in 2023 when the Chinese government introduced export controls. This has resulted in a contraction of the share of exports in Chinese production to just 7pc in 2024 from 52pc in 2018.
China is no longer dependent on exports of gallium metal, as the capacity expansion is required to support China's drive towards full downstream integration into the semiconductor value chain, Giese said.
Gallium is used as a dopant in silicon-based semiconductors, as well as in compound semiconductor materials, in the form of gallium arsenide (GaAs) and gallium nitride (GaN). GaAs is critical in high-frequency devices and LEDs, while GaN is used in high-power, high-frequency devices and LEDs. Adoption of GaN is growing in new AI and automotive applications, with Chinese device manufacturers and automakers leading the way in bringing GaN-on-silicon devices into automotive power electronics.
China previously imported semiconductors to supply its electronics industry. But US restrictions on exports of advanced semiconductors and manufacturing equipment to China since 2022, supported by the Netherlands and Japan, have prompted China to rapidly establish its own domestic semiconductor production and advance its technological development.
The state-backed National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund closed a third round last year of 344bn yuan ($47.5bn), more than double the value of the previous two rounds combined, in addition to growing private-sector investment.
The scale of Chinese investment in expanding semiconductor manufacturing is absorbing much of the expansion in gallium capacity and supporting the long-term competitiveness of the Chinese downstream sector, Giese said. But as US tariffs have reduced dependency on imports of Chinese gallium, along with the export controls, they have reduced the competitiveness of the US downstream sector. Some customers have relocated, cutting US gallium demand and in turn failing to spur new primary gallium production.
