Germany's soon-to-be opposition Green party today warned against the prospective new government's plans for the heating sector, which the Greens say will lead to Germany incurring high fines under the EU's effort-sharing regulation (ESR), particularly as the coalition also seeks to "deliberately delay" the EU's buildings directive.
The expected new government coalition parties CDU/CSU and SPD pledged in their coalition treaty more openness and the use of "scope for implementation" to achieve energy efficiency, while emphasising their commitment to reaching climate neutrality by 2045.
The coalition also agreed to end the outgoing government's building energy act, with its focus on mandatory renewable energies shares, and instead focus on "achievable CO2 avoidance" as a key performance indicator in the heating sector.
In "deliberately" delaying "urgently needed" action, Germany could incur high EU fines while still making heating more expensive for users, the Greens warned, as people are driven into "fossil fuel dependencies" and "cost traps".
And the lax implementation of the EU's energy performance of buildings directive (EPBD) threatens to delay refurbishment and energy efficiency, the party said.
German energy efficiency association Deneff similarly warned against a delayed implementation of the EPBD and the "vague" role accorded to the carbon price in the building sector.
But Deneff commended the coalition's backing of existing energy efficiency support programmes, despite the envisaged end to the buildings energy act.
The act was the brainchild of the Green-led outgoing economy ministry, fiercely criticised by the then-opposition CDU/CSU and only half-heartedly supported by outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz's SPD party.
A recent study found that prices under the upcoming EU emissions trading system covering buildings and road transport (EU ETS 2) could turn out much higher than anticipated by the European Commission. Cologne University-based research institute EWI in a recent paper warned that carbon prices under the ETS 2 could climb from about €120/t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2027 to more than €200/t CO2e by 2035, significantly higher than the current price of €55/t CO2e under Germany's domestic carbon pricing scheme for the sectors.
This is because of the sectors' high short-term marginal abatement costs, with necessary investments such as heat pumps and building renovations being cost-intensive and progressing slowly.
The Greens on 11 April slammed the coalition treaty for advocating the use of "dubious foreign emissions reductions", its "excessive" focus on carbon capture and storage technology and touting an "overcapacity" of new gas-fired plants that could lead to a "fossil lock-in".
The lower house of parliament the Bundestag on 6 May will elect CDU leader Friedrich Merz as Germany's chancellor, assuming the CDU and SPD parties give the coalition the green light as the CSU did last week.
