Voting in Canada is underway today with the governing Liberal party looking to complete a comeback in polling against the Conservative party to clinch its fourth-straight term.
There are 343 seats up for grabs in Canada's Parliament and polls throughout the five-week campaign indicate the Liberals have a reasonable chance to win a majority, which would allow them to implement policies without needing the support of other parties.
Latest polling figures show the Liberals at 43pc, the Conservatives at 39pc, the New Democratic Party (NDP) at 8pc, the Bloq Quebecois at 6pc, and the Green Party at 2pc, according to poll aggregator Canada338 on Monday. The Liberals have held power since 2015, but only in a minority capacity since the 2019 election.
The key issues for Canadians this election cycle are inflation, housing, cost of living and international relations, according to polls. Diversifying trade and growing energy production have been promoted by both Conservative and Liberal leaders — and prime minister hopefuls — looking to become less dependent on US customers and kickstart a lagging economy.
Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer with over 5.7mn b/d of output, and the fifth-largest natural gas producer at 18 Bcf/d, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). The US is Canada's largest foreign customer of each, but verbal and economic attacks on Canada by US president Donald Trump have prompted politicians and Canadians at large to reexamine their trade strategies.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre says Liberal policies over the past decade have stifled the country's productivity and allowed it to become the weakest performer in the G7. Liberal policy needs to be undone so Canada can "unleash" its oil and gas sector to better protect its sovereignty, says Poilievre.
Liberal leader Mark Carney's campaign has centered heavily on Trump, emphasizing the threat comes from abroad, not within. Carney wants to make Canada an "energy superpower" but maintains current legislation is the way to do it, despite calls to the contrary by oil and gas executives.
A fresh face for the Liberals and a foe to rally against in Trump has lifted the fortunes of the party, which some critics speculated only months ago could lose most of its seats. As recent as January, the Liberals were facing a 26-point deficit in polls, but the party mounted a comeback at the expense of both the Conservatives and the left-leaning NDP.
The Conservatives would likely have to overtake the Liberals by several percentage points to win enough seats to form a government, based on the past two elections in 2019 and 2021. More Canadians voted for Conservatives than any other party in those races, but the Liberals came away with the most seats, owing to their success in winning tight races.
The last polls close on Canada's west coast at 10pm ET with preliminary results expected shortly after.
