With the launch of a new Chinese origin cut-cathode price assessment in Rotterdam, Argus will bring more transparency to cobalt metal prices, which have become confused by an influx of material with different market fundamentals to Western origin metal.
The Issue:
- Cobalt is in oversupply. Explanation of raw material oversupply.
- Chinese production estimates for 2024 + Chart.
- Chinese export figures to July + Chart.
- Average price of deals for Chinese Material vs Average price of deals for Western “chemical” grade material + Chart.
- SRB tender and helplessness of other markets to pick up the slack.
The Fundamentals:
- While the Chinese market is now essentially a pipeline for large copper miners in the DRC to refine their byproduct cobalt, most Western cobalt producers are operating on fundamentals more closely linked to the nickel market.
- Nickel price breakdown and risk to miners.
- Difference between the US & European aerospace supply chains and Chinese metal market.
- Support from IRA, potential Biden support.
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