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- Palm and lauric oil prices, analysis and outlook
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- Fatty alcohols quarterly outlook trends and in depth trade analysis
- Fatty acids price outlook, trade data and feedstock analysis
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Malaysian crude palm oil futures fall
Malaysian crude palm oil futures fall
Singapore, 17 January (Argus) — Benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) futures on the Bursa Malaysia Exchange fell by 197 ringgit/t ($44/t) or 4pc on the week to 4,183 ringgit/t by the 4:30pm Singapore close. The CPO futures declined over four straight sessions from 14 January to the lowest level in three months, likely following a reported fall in CPO exports for a second month in December , according to Malaysian palm oil board (Mpob) data. The recent export suspension for palm oil mill effluent (Pome) oil and used cooking oil (UCO) by Indonesia has also resulted in uncertainty for Indonesian CPO supply, as the country's trade ministry alleged CPO was blended into the waste oil pool and exported out under Pome oil or UCO HS codes. The upcoming mandate for a higher 40pc palm oil-based biodiesel blend is also expected to come into effect by end-February , further limiting CPO availability. Malaysia maintained its CPO export levy rate at 10pc for February 2025, but lowered the reference price to 4,817.70 ringgit/t from 5,001.72 ringgit/t a month, earlier in line with a 7pc year-to-date fall in the CPO futures. Market participants suggested Indonesia may raise its palm oil export levy to 10pc, matching the Malaysian levy rate. The government is expected to announce further measures to restrict waste oil exports and boost funding for its B40 mandate, possibly early next week. With CPO futures returning to a discount to rival soybean oil futures in January, as well as lower Indonesian CPO availability, CPO could see price support from buyers switching and lower overall supply in the market. By Malcolm Goh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia's Jan-Nov tallow exports hit record high
Australia's Jan-Nov tallow exports hit record high
Sydney, 14 January (Argus) — Australian tallow exports during January-November 2024 reached the highest on record, surpassing the previous record for exports in the whole of 2023. Australia exported 517,364t of tallow in the first 11 months of 2024, surpassing the 504,409t of tallow in 2023, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) accessed through Global Trade Tracker (GTT) (see graph) . The record export number was the result of a larger cattle herd, high slaughter rates and favourable weather conditions, while growing demand from the biofuels sector has also helped boost exports. Domestic cattle slaughter rates stood at 2.24mn head in July-September, the highest since the same period in 2015, because of processors' concerted effort to increase capacity. Australia's beef production hit a record high in July-September at 690,694t, according to ABS data. Over 90pc of Australian tallow was exported to either Singapore or the US in the first 11 months of the year, with each country receiving 53.2pc and 37.6pc respectively, according to GTT data. Market participants have indicated Australian tallow trade flows may swing towards the US this year because of the newly released guidance on the 45Z tax credit in the country. Prices for lower carbon intensity feedstocks like tallow increased following the new guidance, while imported used cooking oil will not qualify for the tax credit. By Tom Woodlock Australian tallow exports (t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: US tax fight next year crucial for 45Z
Viewpoint: US tax fight next year crucial for 45Z
New York, 23 December (Argus) — A Republican-controlled Congress will decide the fate next year of a federal incentive for low-carbon fuels, setting the stage for a lobbying battle that could make or break existing investment plans. The 45Z tax credit, which offers greater subsidies to fuels that produce fewer emissions, is poised to kick off in January. Biofuel output has boomed during President Joe Biden's term, driven in large part by west coast refiners retrofitting facilities to process lower-carbon fats and oils into renewable diesel. The 45Z tax credit, created by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), was designed to extend that growth. But Republicans will soon control Washington. President-elect Donald Trump has dismissed the IRA as the "Green New Scam", and Republicans on Capitol Hill, who had no role in passing Biden's signature climate legislation, are keen to cut climate spending to offset the steep cost of extending tax cuts from Trump's first term. Biofuels support is a less likely target for repeal than other climate policies, energy lobbyists say. But Republicans have already requested input on 45Z, signaling openness to changes. Republicans plan to use the reconciliation process, which enables them to avoid a Democratic filibuster in the Senate, to extend tax breaks that are scheduled to expire in 2025. "I want to place our industry in a place to make sure that the biofuels tax credit is part of reconciliation," said Kailee Tkacz Buller, president of the National Oilseed Processors Association. But lawmakers "could punt the biofuels discussion if stakeholders aren't aligned." A decade ago, biofuel policy was a simple tug-of-war between the oil and agriculture industries. Now many refiners formerly critical of the Renewable Fuel Standard produce ethanol and advanced biofuels themselves. And the increasingly diverse biofuels industry could complicate efforts to present a united front to Congress. Farm groups worry about carbon intensity scoring hurting crop demand and have lobbied to curtail record-high feedstock imports, to the chagrin of some biorefineries. Those producers are no monolith either: Biodiesel plants often rely more on local vegetable oils, while ethanol producers insist on keeping incentives that do not discriminate by fuel type and some oil majors would back subsidizing fuels co-processed with petroleum. Add airlines into the picture, which want greater incentives for aviation fuels, and marketers frustrated by 45Z shifting subsidies away from blenders — and the threat of fractious negotiations next year becomes clear. There are options for potential compromise, according to an Argus analysis of comments submitted privately to Republicans in the House of Representatives, as well as interviews with energy lobbyists and tax experts. The industry, frustrated by the Biden administration's delays in clarifying 45Z's rules, might welcome legislative changes that limit regulatory discretion regardless of what agency guidance eventually says. And lobbyists have floated various ways to appease agriculture groups without kneecapping biorefineries reliant on imports, including adding domestic content bonuses, imposing stricter requirements for Chinese-origin used cooking oil, and giving preference to close trading partners. Granted, unanimity among lobbyists is hardly a priority for Republican tax-writers. Reaching any consensus in the restive caucus, with just a handful of votes to spare in the House, will be difficult enough. "These types of bills always come to down to what's the most you can do before you start losing enough votes to pass it," said Jeff Navin, cofounder of the clean energy advocacy firm Boundary Stone Partners and a former House and Senate staffer. "Because they can only lose a couple of votes, there's not much more beyond that." And the caucus's goal of cutting spending makes an industry-wide goal — extending the 45Z credit into the 2030s — even more challenging. "It is a hard sell to get the extension right away," said Paul Winters, director of public affairs at Clean Fuels Alliance America. Climate costs Cost concerns also make less likely a simple return to the long-running blenders credit, which offered $1/USG across the board to biomass-based diesel. The US Joint Committee on Taxation in 2022 scored the two-year blenders extension at $5.5bn, while pegging three years of 45Z at less than $3bn. An inconvenient reality for Republicans skeptical of climate change is that 45Z's throttling of subsidies based on carbon intensity makes it more budget-friendly. Lawmakers have other reasons to not ignore emissions. Policies elsewhere, including California's low-carbon fuel standard and Europe's alternative jet fuel mandates, increasingly prioritize sustainability. The US deviating from that focus federally could leave producers with contradictory incentives, making it harder to turn a profit. And companies that have already sunk funds into reducing emissions — such as ethanol producers with heavy investments in carbon capture — want their reward. Incentives with bipartisan buy-in are likely more durable over the long run too. Next time Democrats control Washington, liberals may be more willing to scrap a credit they see as padding the profits of agribusiness — but less so if they see it as helping the US decarbonize. By Cole Martin Tax credit changes 40A Blenders Tax Credit 45Z Producers Tax Credit $1/USG Up to $1/USG for road fuels and up to $1.75/USG for aviation fuels depending on carbon intensity For domestic fuel blenders For domestic fuel producers Imported fuel eligible Imported fuel not eligible Exclusively for biomass-based diesel Fuels that produce no more than 50kg CO2e/mmBTU are eligible Feedstock-agnostic Carbon intensity scoring incentivizes waste over crop feedstocks Co-processed fuels ineligible Co-processed fuels ineligible Administratively simple Requires federal guidance on how to calculate carbon intensities for different feedstocks and fuel pathways Expiring after 2024 Lasts from 2025 through 2027 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Tall oil rosin output to decline in 2024
Tall oil rosin output to decline in 2024
Sao Paulo, 29 November (Argus) — Global tall oil rosin (TOR) production is likely to decline in 2024 on the back of reduced fractionation rates and softer rosin demand. Output of TOR, one of the key fractions obtained by the distilling of crude tall oil (CTO), is seen at 350,000t, down from an estimated 450,000-495,000t in 2022, two sources said. "There is still a trend for biobased natural resins, but demand is not there yet," consultant Alex Cunningham said at the Brazil Pine Chemicals Meeting in Sao Paulo on 28 and 29 November. TOR output is forecast to decline this year as CTO fractionation rates are down in the US and in Europe because of softer downstream rosin demand. Closures of tall oil refineries in the US reduced domestic CTO fractionation capacity by about 30pc, according to market participants. TOR and TOR derivatives can be used in various applications, including paper sizing, printing inks, adhesives and road marking. By Leonardo Siqueira Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
