Ellie Saklatvala, Senior Editor — Nonferrous Metals, provides a bitesize overview of the key price movements that happened in Q1 and how supply and demand fundamentals are shaping up as we move through Q2.
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Australia's Labor win may aid low-carbon Fe, Al sectors
Australia's Labor win may aid low-carbon Fe, Al sectors
Sydney, 5 May (Argus) — The Australian Labor party's victory in the country's 3 May parliamentary election could support low-carbon iron and aluminium developers, providing policy clarity and public capital to the sectors. Labor's victory provides more certainty around Australia's A$14bn ($9.06bn) green hydrogen subsidy scheme, which will help steel producers transition towards hydrogen-powered steel furnaces. The opposition Coalition during the election pledged to scrap the programme, which will allow producers to claim A$2/t of green hydrogen produced from 2027. Australian steelmaker NeoSmelt and South Korean steelmaker Posco are developing electric iron smelters in Western Australia (WA) that produce hot-briquetted iron, which is used in the green steel process. Both projects will initially rely on natural gas but may transition to hydrogen-based processing as hydrogen production rises. Australia's hydrogen tax credits may prove crucial given ongoing hydrogen production challenges. South Australia's state government closed its Office of Hydrogen Power SA on 2 May, following a funding cut earlier this year. Labor can now also move forward with plans for A$2bn in low-emissions aluminium production credits, beginning in 2028-29. Smelters will be able to claim credits per tonne of low-carbon aluminium produced, based on their Scope 2 emission reductions. The party's proposal does not include any blanket credit for producers. Labor's aluminium production credits are aimed at supporting the Australian government's goal of doubling the country's share of renewable power from about 40pc to 82pc by 2030. Australian producers export about 1.5mn t/yr of aluminium, according to industry body Australian Aluminium Council, from four smelters located around the country. Green iron funding Labor's election win also secures its A$1bn lower-emission iron support pledge , first announced in late February. Half of the fund will go towards restarting and transitioning the 1.2mn t/yr Whyalla steelworks in South Australia into a green steel plant. The other half will support new and existing green iron and steel projects to overcome initial funding barriers. Labor has not allocated any funding through the programme yet. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia's Coalition eyes power, resource funding cuts
Australia's Coalition eyes power, resource funding cuts
Sydney, 2 May (Argus) — Australia's federal Coalition opposition has announced it will cut key energy rebates and resource sector subsidies, if elected on 3 May, to reduce forecast future budget deficits. The Peter Dutton-led opposition will cut programs, including the Labor government's A$20bn ($12.8bn) Rewiring the Nation transmission plan, and the A$15bn National Reconstruction Fund aimed at underwriting green manufacturing using domestic minerals. It will also unwind electric vehicle tax concessions to save A$3.2bn, and cancel planned production tax credits for critical minerals processing and green hydrogen estimated to cost A$14.7bn. Combined savings measures will improve the budget's position by A$13.9bn over the four years to 2028-29, the Coalition said on 1 May, cutting debt by A$40bn during the same timeframe. The announcement comes as opinion polls show Australia's next federal government is likely to force one of the two major parties into minority, after a campaign where cost-of-living relief promises have trumped economic reform policy. The centre-left Labor party is more likely than the conservative Coalition to form government at the 3 May poll. It holds a thin majority of just three seats in parliament's main chamber, the House of Representatives, meaning a swing against it would force it to deal with minor parties such as the Greens and independent groupings. Promising a stable government, as Australia emerged from Covid-19, Labor had benefited from a resources boom as Russia's invasion of Ukraine led LNG and coal receipts to skyrocket and China's emergence from lockdowns revitalised its demand for iron ore, which jointly form the nation's main commodity exports. But as markets adjust to a period of protectionist trade policy and predictions of a slowdown in global growth abound, economists have criticised the major parties' reluctance to embrace major reform on areas such as taxation, while continuing to spend at elevated levels post-pandemic. Australia's resource and energy commodity exports are forecast to fall to A$387bn in the fiscal year to 30 June 2025 from A$415bn in 2023–24. The Office of the Chief Economist is predicting further falls over the next five years, reaching A$343bn in 2029-30, lowering expected government revenue from company tax and royalties. Gas The Coalition has pledged a domestic reservation scheme for the east coast, forcing 50-100PJ (1.34bn-2.68bn m³/yr) into the grid by penalising spot LNG cargoes. Australia's upstream lobby has opposed this, but rapidly declining reserves offshore Victoria state mean gas may need to be imported to the nation's south, depending on the success of electrification efforts and an uncertain timeline for coal-fired power retirements. Labor has resisted such further gas interventions , but it is unclear how it will reverse a trend of rising gas prices and diminishing domestic supply, despite releasing a future gas plan last year. The party is promising 82pc renewables nationally by 2030, meaning it will have to nearly double the 2025 year-to-date figure of 42pc. This could require 15GW of gas-fired capacity by 2050 to firm the grid. On environmental policy, narrowing polls mean Labor's likely partners in government could be the anti-fossil fuel Greens and climate-focused independents — just some of the present crossbench of 16 out of a parliament of 151. The crossbench may drive a climate trigger requirement in any changes to environmental assessments, which could rule out new or brownfield coal and gas projects. Coal has been conspicuously absent from policy debates, but Labor has criticised the Coalition's nuclear energy policy as expensive and unproven, while the Coalition has said Labor's renewables-led grid would be unstable and costly because of new transmission requirements. The impact of the US tariff shock that dominated opening days of the month-long election campaign remains unclear. Unlike Canada, Australia is yet to be directly targeted by US president Trump's rhetoric on trade balances and barriers. But the global unease that has set in could assist Labor's prime minister Anthony Albanese, as he presents an image of continuity in an uncertain world economy. Australia's main exposure to Trump tariffs is via China, its largest trading partner and destination for about 35pc of exports, including metal concentrates, ores, coal and LNG. A downturn in the world's largest manufacturer would spell difficult times ahead for Australia, as it grapples with balancing its budget in a normalising commodity market. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
GM cuts guidance on up to $5bn tariff exposure
GM cuts guidance on up to $5bn tariff exposure
Houston, 1 May (Argus) — Automaker General Motors (GM) revised its 2025 guidance lower today to reflect $4bn-5bn of exposure to auto tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Full-year 2025 profit guidance was lowered to a $8.2bn-10.1bn range, from the $11.2bn-12.5bn guidance given in the company's fourth quarter earnings call earlier this year. The new guidance takes into account clarifications to tariffs already imposed on automakers earlier this week. GM's tariff exposure includes $2bn of vehicles imported from South Korea and tariffs on autos imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as "indirect material imports." GM said it expects to offset 30pc of the exposure by producing an additional 50,000 full-size trucks/yr at its Fort Wayne, Indiana, plant and expanding battery module assembly in the US. GM will also work to ensure its supply chain is US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) compliant and nearshore its production, executives said. More than 80pc of GM's supply chain is USMCA compliant, most of which is based in the US. US president Donald Trump on 29 April offered to offset a 25pc tariff on imported auto parts scheduled to be imposed on 3 May and to exempt auto parts from accumulating these and and other import tariffs. Trump imposed a 25pc tariff on imported cars on 3 April. GM on 29 April rescheduled its earnings call but released its first quarter earnings on schedule that day. The company reported sales of 693,000 vehicles in the US in the first quarter, up by 17pc from the prior-year quarter. Electric vehicle (EV) sales rose by 94pc to 32,000 units in the same period. Global sales rose by 7pc to 1.44mn vehicles in the first quarter compared to the first quarter of 2024. GM posted a $2.8bn profit in the first quarter, down by 7pc from a year earlier, which was partially attributed to higher costs. By Marialuisa Rincon Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Tariff pressure, supply relief weigh on tin prices
Tariff pressure, supply relief weigh on tin prices
London, 1 May (Argus) — Downward pressure from US tariffs and easing supply constraints prompted a sharp price drop on the official three-month tin contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) in April, erasing much of the gains made through the first quarter of this year. Prices on the LME's official three-month tin contract dipped to $31,775-$31,825/t on 30 April, down by 20pc from a three-year high of $38,125-38,175/t on 2 April, but up from a month-to-date low of $29,550-29,600/t on 9 April. This decline scrubbed much of the steady increase made over the first quarter when tin prices climbed in response to tighter supply from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and mining restrictions in Myanmar. Tight concentrate supply drives 1Q price increases Tin prices rose steadily throughout the first quarter after a major escalation in the conflict in eastern DRC interrupted supply from artisanal and industrial cassiterite mining and a major earthquake in Myanmar disrupted plans to lift a mining ban in the autonomous Wa region. Rwanda-backed militia group M23 launched a fresh push through eastern DRC in late January, seizing control of key mineral-trading towns Goma and Bukavu before expanding west towards the town of Walikale and Alphamin's Bisie tin concentrate mine. The 25,000 t/yr capacity mine was evacuated on 13 March, raising concerns about a supply shortage and prompting a 6pc day-on-day increase in the official three-month LME tin contract. Warehouses in Goma and Bukavu that held artisinally mined cassiterite ore also were raided, with multiple containers of material having been stolen, market participants told Argus . These supply concerns were compounded on 28 March when a 7.7-magnitude earthquake hit Myanmar. Authorities in Wa state have upheld a mining ban in the region since August 2023, but in March, they confirmed plans to roll out a licensing scheme that will allow companies to restart mining operations. The earthquake delayed these plans by a few weeks, prompting further concerns about the stability of future supply and causing another spike in the three-month LME tin contract to a three-year high. Myanmar is the third-largest producer of tin concentrates after China and Indonesia, but most of the tin concentrates produced in the country are exported to neighbouring China for processing. Chinese imports of tin concentrates last year fell to 76,000t, from 187,000t in 2022, before the Wa state mining ban. Wa state is home to Man Maw, the largest tin mine in Myanmar. Prices fall in April But despite the first-quarter gains, tin prices faced strong downward pressure in April. Tariff increases announced by US president Donald Trump sparked uncertainty about long-term demand and caused prices to fall by $8,575/t from 2-9 April, a decline of more than 22pc. Trump's April tariff announcements are expected to dampen global trade and triggered fears of an economic recession, which would weigh on demand for base metals such as tin. And the supply constraints that triggered such strong price increases in the first quarter eased after M23 withdrew from towns close to the Bisie mine, enabling Alphamin to implement a phased restart of operations from 15 April. But the towns of Goma and Bukavu, as well as many artisanal mining sites, remain under M23's control. Authorities in Wa state also were able to progress plans to resume mining operations, having officially released details of a new licensing scheme and meeting with Man Maw's former operators on 23 April. But it could take some months for Man Maw's production to ramp up as companies apply for new licenses, Chinese workers apply for visas and parts of the mine's underground sections may need to be de-watered, the International Tin Association said. By Sian Morris Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
