EIA expects higher US winter fuel costs: Update
Adds outlook on propane, details from EIA briefing.
An expected return to more normal winter weather will boost average US natural gas and heating oil costs by double digits in the winter 2016-17 over the previous winter, the US government energy forecaster said.
US households using natural gas for heating — about half of the population — will see their bills rise by 22pc on average from the unusually warm winter 2015-16, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said today in its Winter Fuels Outlook. The EIA defines the winter heating season to last from 1 October to 31 March.
The EIA projected that natural gas use for heating would rise by 10pc and it expects prices of the fuel to climb by 11pc on the year-over-year basis. Natural gas prices are expected to rise by 13pc in the northeast and 14pc in the midcontinent.
The price forecast represents the expected prices paid by the consumers, rather than wholesale prices. Utility costs typically lag behind spot prices. The projected winter natural gas heating costs are the highest since winter 2010-11.
US natural gas futures prices in March collapsed to a 17-year settlement low below $1.65/mmBtu following an unusually mild winter that left inventories at a seasonal record. But US natural gas prices at key hubs already have rebounded from lows marked earlier this year as that fuel displaced coal for US power generation.
Natural gas prices at Algonquin Citygates, a New England hub, averaged $2.60/mmBtu in September, up from $1.87/mmBtu in March. Chicago Citygates prices, in the midcontinent, rose to $2.89/mmBtu from $1.79/mmBtu at the end of the winter 2015-16 heating season.
The northeast US is the highest-priced market in winter time and the only US region where LNG tanker deliveries can compete both with domestic supply and with other global markets. But additional natural gas delivery infrastructure built in recent years has reduced the northeast US price differentials with the Gulf coast. Spectra Energy's 330mn cf/d (9mn m³/d) Algonquin Incremental Market project should start service in November, with the potential to alleviate supply constraints on the coldest winter days.
The northeast US also has the highest proportion of households relying on heating oil, and the EIA expects those families to pay 38pc more this winter compared to last. It expects the heating oil prices to be up by 20pc on the year-over-year basis while demand should increase by 15pc.
The price forecast reflects the EIA's projected $48/bl Brent price for the October-March period, which would be 23pc higher than in the previous winter season. Distillate stocks in the northeast as of 30 September were 15pc higher than a year earlier.
The EIA projects that propane prices in winter 2016-17 would increase by 7pc in the northeast and 14pc in the midcontinent, from the previous winter. US propane inventories, at 104mn bl at the end of September, were 4pc higher than a year earlier, but most of that excess is in the Gulf coast storage facilities. The inventory is sufficient for meeting higher-than-normal demand for propane both for heating and for exports.
The high inventory and improved rail delivery networks should prevent a supply shortages and price spikes that occurred in winter 2013-14, the EIA said.
Homes that rely on electricity for heating, primarily in the southern US, will see a more moderate 5.4pc increase in heating bills, the EIA projects. Residential electricity prices have longer lag periods behind spot power prices, which in turn move in tandem with natural gas. Families reliant on electricity for heating will not see higher bills until 2017.
The EIA winter fuels forecast reflects predictions by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which expects heating demand in the US to rise by 13pc from the previous winter. The winter 2016-17 season still should be 3pc warmer than the 10-year average, according to the US forecasters.
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US Gulf oil shut-ins drop as Helene nears landfall
US Gulf oil shut-ins drop as Helene nears landfall
New York, 26 September (Argus) — US Gulf of Mexico oil production shut-in levels fell today as Hurricane Helene bore down on Florida's west coast as a category 3 storm, bringing the threat of dangerous storm surge and winds. Around 441,923 b/d of US offshore oil output, or 25pc, was off line as of 12:30pm ET, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). That is down from 29pc on Wednesday as the eastern Gulf path of the storm took it farther away from most offshore production facilities. About 363.39mn cf/d of natural gas production, or 20pc of the region's output, was also off line today, up from 17pc on Wednesday. Operators have evacuated workers from 27 offshore platforms. Helene was last about 145 miles west-southwest of Tampa, Florida, packing maximum winds of 120mph, according to a 4pm ET advisory from the US National Hurricane Center. Further intensification is likely and Helene could approach the coast at category 4 strength, with winds of at least 130mph. Landfall is expected near Port Leon on Apalachee Bay Thursday evening before Helene is forecast to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and into the weekend. Earlier this week, offshore operators including BP, Equinor and Chevron took the precaution of suspending some operations and evacuating workers from offshore facilities in advance of the hurricane. Some facilities have since started back up as the hurricane's track shifted away from the main oil and gas hub in the region. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Opec+, Saudis have no target oil price: sources
Opec+, Saudis have no target oil price: sources
Dubai, 26 September (Argus) — Neither Saudi Arabia nor the wider Opec+ group have any specific target for oil prices, and no member of the producers' alliance is about to abandon output discipline in favour of chasing market share, multiple Opec+ sources have told Argus . Oil prices fell earlier on Thursday following unconfirmed press reports that Saudi Arabia may be willing to tolerate lower oil prices as part of a plan to increase crude output to regain market share. Sources within Opec+ have since dismissed those assertions outright, insisting that the basis for the group's collective decision-making will always be market fundamentals, and in particular the five-year average of crude inventories, rather than targeting any particular oil price. "Neither Opec+, Opec nor the Saudis have any price target, let alone $100/bl," one source said, in response to a Financial Times report that stated Saudi Arabia is ready to "abandon its unofficial price target of $100/bl". A second source said the $100/bl figure being reported is not a target but is more likely to refer to a recent estimate issued by banks and other financial institutions of Saudi Arabia's "so-called break-even oil price" — that is, the price the kingdom needs to cover its spending plans. In April, the IMF estimated Saudi Arabia's breakeven oil price at $96.20 for 2024, almost 20pc above the previous year and around a third higher than current Ice Brent futures. "The breakeven is, at best, indicative, but does not tell the full story," the source said. Focusing on it "is totally devoid of the idea that a government has a host of other tools to manage an economy — issuing bonds, borrowing, adjusting one's budget". Eight Opec+ producers, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, were due to begin a phased return of around 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" output cuts from the start of next month. But mounting concerns over the strength of the global economy, and in turn oil demand, prompted the group to defer the plan by two months to December. With worries around oil demand not going away, and the market looking likely to flip into a surplus from the start of next year, some observers are questioning whether there will be any need for an increase in Opec+ supply from December. And if the eight members go ahead with unwinding the cuts regardless, whether that would signal a shift in the group's focus to chasing market share. But a third source rejected that view, as the group would "only be reversing what we have cut". "As a group, we have said time and time again that these cuts were both voluntary and temporary, and always stressed that they could be paused or reversed," the source said. "And earlier this month, that's exactly what we did with the two-month deferral to December." December or bust? The rationale to delay the increase in production to December was twofold, according to Opec+ sources. It not only reflected the uncertainty around the global economy, the US and Chinese economies, interest rates and demand. But more importantly, the decision was made to allow Opec+ members that have overproduced this year ꟷ namely Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia ꟷ more time to show they are serious about compensating for exceeding their output targets. "There is so much uncertainty today which we, as Opec+, have no control over," one of the sources said. "But what we do control is our own affairs." Iraq and Kazakhstan have been under intense pressure in recent months to not only adhere to their pledged targets, but also compensate for past overproduction. While Kazakhstan did manage to produce below its target in August, Iraq continued to struggle. All eyes will be on how these countries do in September. "The overproduction is impacting our credibility, and we need to tackle that. Discipline is paramount," the source said. Reports that Saudi Arabia is committed to start unwinding cuts from December, come what may, are wide of the mark for several reasons, another source said. "First, this is not a decision for Saudi Arabia to make. It is for all eight to decide," he said. The group also still has several weeks before it has to decide whether to proceed with the plan, or defer again, the source added. A decision is due in the first week of November, by which time the group should have better visibility on market fundamentals and Iraqi and Kazakh compensation efforts. "How could we make a decision now when we don't even have September production figures?" the source said. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Hurricane Helene shuts in 29pc of US Gulf oil
Hurricane Helene shuts in 29pc of US Gulf oil
New York, 25 September (Argus) — Hurricane Helene, which is forecast to intensify as it heads for a late Thursday landfall in Florida, has shut in about 29pc of US Gulf of Mexico oil output. Around 511,000 b/d of US offshore oil output was off line as of 12:30pm ET, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), while 313mn cf/d of natural gas production, or 17pc of the region's output, was also off line. Operators have so far evacuated workers from 17 offshore platforms. Helene was last about 110 miles north-northeast of Cozumel, Mexico, according to a 2pm ET advisory from the US National Hurricane Center, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Helene is expected to be a major hurricane, with winds of at least 111mph, when it reaches the eastern Florida coast on Thursday evening. "A turn toward the north and north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today through Thursday, bringing the center of Helene across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and to the Florida Big Bend coast by Thursday evening," the center said. Shell restarting some production Although the hurricane will largely pass to the east of most offshore oil and gas production areas, companies have taken precautionary measures. Given a shift in the forecast track, Shell said late Tuesday that it had started to ramp up production at the Appomattox platform to normal levels, and was in the process of restoring output at the Stones facility, both off the coast of Louisiana. It paused some drilling operations. Chevron said earlier it was shutting in production at company-operated facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, and evacuating all workers. Equinor said it was shutting down the Titan oil platform. BP had earlier this week started to shut in production at its Na Kika and Thunder Horse platforms, southeast of New Orleans, and was curtailing output from its Argos and Atlantis facilities, as well as removing non-essential staff. US offshore production was disrupted earlier this month when Hurricane Francine made landfall, with up to 42pc of production was offline at one point. The offshore Gulf of Mexico accounts for around 15pc of total US crude output and 5pc of US natural gas production. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
LNG glut coming and may catch many by surprise: Orsted
LNG glut coming and may catch many by surprise: Orsted
London, 25 September (Argus) — There will be an oversupply of LNG on the global market in the coming years, which may contribute further to "the decade of turmoil", Danish utility Orsted senior vice-president Rune Sonne Bundgaard-Jorgensen told Argus . "The [energy] crisis is absolutely not over. To me, an energy crisis is one of uncertainty and volatility," Bundgaard-Jorgensen said on the sidelines of the Energy Trading Week conference in London. "We are going to see an LNG glut which we all in this [conference] room see is coming but the rest of the world does not necessarily. That is going to catch a lot of people by surprise," he said, adding that "surprises are never good when it comes to energy". According to Bundgaard-Jorgensen, "we are going to see an ongoing decade of turmoil. Who knows where the war in the Middle East with the latest attacks on Hezbollah and Israel is going to take us," he said. Among other concerns, he mentioned "uncertainties in the Far East, around the South China Sea". "So, though the current energy crisis of decoupling from Russian pipe gas is over, the continued crisis of where we are going to get sustainable, long-term energy from is far from over," Bundgaard-Jorgensen said. Commenting on Orsted's long-term gas plans, Bundgaard-Jorgensen stressed that Orsted is "constantly evaluating" its gas portfolio. He refused to say whether Orsted is negotiating another long-term deal with Norwegian state-controlled Equinor after their previous contract expired in April. Orsted entered an agreement with Equinor at the end of 2022, after Russian state-controlled Gazprom halted deliveries to the firm from June 2022 following Orsted's refusal to pay for its supply in roubles . "We are quite happy that we are out of our long-term contract with Gazprom," Bundgaard-Jorgensen said. "As a company we believe in decarbonisation — but I also need to believe in a resilient portfolio. So, we are constantly looking to optimise. Gas is not a strategic core of Orsted but it is a very important tool of securing our portfolio," he said. Bundgaard-Jorgensen refused to comment on whether the firm is planning to appeal a decision made by the Danish Supply Authority in July that the tariff levied by Orsted on the Tyra-Nybro pipeline to Denmark from 2011 to October 2012 was too high. The authority reduced the tariff in the period by almost 30pc to 7.20 Danish kroner/m³ from DKr10/m³. By Alexandra Vladimirova Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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