US fuel mandates no salve for farm trade losses
Higher US biofuel blending mandates cannot make up for lost export trade opportunities, according to farm groups caught in the crossfire of the country's trade war with China.
US independent refiners show little concern that the administration will blunt sharply lower exports to China by pressuring more renewable fuels into the domestic transportation supply. While renewables groups continue to seek rising targets and stricter enforcement of US fuel blending mandates, the scale of renewable volume obligations (RVO) imposed on refiners and fuel importers each year falls well short of the agricultural commodities shipped to China.
"It would take a heck of an RVO number, on the biodiesel side, to even put a dent or a ripple in the pond to make up for China," said Rob Shaffer, an Illinois farmer and boardmember of the American Soybean Association and National Biodiesel Board. "We would appreciate any increase, but it just takes so much to make up for China."
President Donald Trump's decision to hike import tariffs on Chinese goods this month drew expected countermeasures from Beijing. Tariffs on certain corn and soy products will rise by 25pc on 1 June, intensifying policies that have priced soy farmers especially out of a market that took decades to cultivate. US farmers exported 22.6mn t of soybeans to China during the 2016 crop year, according to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data. The US sent 23.8mn t to China between October 2017 and March of 2018. That fell to 5.2mn bt over the same period ending in March 2019. US farmers meanwhile start the season with a record 995mn bushel inventory to clear while placing this year's crop.
The administration has turned to biofuel mandates before to curry favor — or simply patience — from agriculture producers. Trump announced in an Iowa campaign stop last fall that he would direct the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to allow the year-round sale of higher-ethanol blends of gasoline, called E15, currently blocked by clean air laws from sale during the peak summer driving months. EPA this month continued to race to finish that rule before the formal 1 June start of the summer driving season. Proponents of that change have estimated that the change could add 350mn of ethanol blending by 2021 — roughly 125mn bushels of corn demand. EPA paired them to changes to the trading market of credits used to prove compliance with federal mandates unpopular with integrated refiners and blending operations.
Summer fuel changes would have almost no effect on soy-based biodiesel consumption. Biodiesel producers instead face ongoing risk from EPA waivers slashing federal renewables mandates and sluggish attention to expired tax incentives to blend the fuel.
The blender tax credit (BTC), a $1/USG incentive to add biodiesel to conventional diesel, expired at the end of 2017. EPA has cited the BTC as the most influential driver of US biodiesel blending. Congress has repeatedly extended the credit after allowing it to expire, but has allowed the current limbo to stretch to 17 months. Sources familiar with negotiations around the tax extension do not expect earnest talks in the US House of Representatives, where tax legislation must begin, before July.
The industry may not know the future of the credit before fall. The extended uncertainty has cut blending demand and biodiesel production, adding another headwind for soybean consumption.
The DC Circuit Court of Appeals last week rejected a request to block EPA from exempting more small refineries from fuel blending requirements. The 36 waivers the agency issued for the previous compliance year effectively cut total mandates by almost 10pc. EPA was considering 39 applications for the next compliance year, according to the latest disclosure issued last week.
Previous waiver recipients expected the EPA to continue issuing the exemptions despite the court challenges.
"We expect the [exemptions] to continue to be granted, consistent with the recent practice under the Trump administration," HollyFrontier chief executive George Damiris told investors.
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Von der Leyen faces new Green Deal challenges
Von der Leyen faces new Green Deal challenges
The president promises a ‘clean industrial deal', but will need to make compromises over climate policy, writes Dafydd ab Iago Brussels, 19 July (Argus) — Ursula von der Leyen's re-election by the European Parliament as president of the European Commission on 18 July promises to see a doubling down on climate and energy policy, with her 2024-29 mandate stipulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions cuts of at least 90pc by 2040 compared with 1990. "I have not forgotten how [Russian president Vladimir] Putin blackmailed us by cutting us off from Russian fossil fuels. We invested massively in homegrown cheap renewables and this enabled us to break free from dirty Russian fossil fuels," von der Leyen says, promising to end the "era of dependency on Russian fossil fuels". She has not given an end date for this, nor specified if this includes a commitment to ending Russian LNG imports. Von der Leyen went on to detail political guidelines for 2024-29. She has pledged to propose a "clean industrial deal" in the first 100 days of her new mandate, albeit without giving concrete figures about how much investment this would channel to infrastructure and industry, particularly for energy-intensive sectors. The clean industrial deal will help bring down energy bills, she says. Von der Leyen told parliament that the commission would propose legislation, under the European Climate Law, establishing a 90pc emissions-reduction target for 2040. Her political guidelines also call for scaling up and prioritising investment in clean technologies, including grid infrastructure, storage capacity, transport for captured CO2, energy efficiency, power digitalisation and a hydrogen network. She plans to extend aggregate demand mechanisms beyond gas to include hydrogen and critical raw materials, and notes the dangers of dependencies and fraying supply chains — from Putin's energy blackmail to China's monopoly on battery and chip raw materials. Majority report Passing the necessary legislation to implement her stated policies will now require approval from EU states and parliament. Unless amplified by Germany's election next year, election victories by far-right parties in France and elsewhere appear not to threaten EU state majorities for specific legislation. Parliament's political centre-left S&D and liberal Renew groups, as well as von der Leyen's own centre-right European People's Party (EPP), have elaborated key policy requests. These broadly call for the continuation of the European Green Deal — a set of legislation and policy measures aimed at 55pc GHG emissions reductions by 2030 compared with 1990. A symbolic issue for von der Leyen to decide on — or compromise on — is that of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. EPP wants to stick to technological neutrality and revise the current mandate for sales of new ICE cars to be phased out by 2035, if they cannot run exclusively on carbon-neutral fuels. The EPP wants an e-fuel, biofuel and low-carbon fuel strategy. Von der Leyen's guidelines reflect the need to gain support from centre-right, centre-left and greens. She says the 2035 climate neutrality target for new cars creates investor and manufacturer "predictability" but requires a "technology-neutral approach, in which e-fuels have a role to play". She has not mentioned carbon-neutral biofuels. It will be impossible for von der Leyen to satisfy all demands in her second mandate. This includes policy requests put forward by the EPP, ranging from a "pragmatic" definition of low-carbon hydrogen and market rules for carbon capture and storage, to postponing the EU's deforestation regulation. EU member states are expected to propose their candidates for commissioners in August, including for energy, climate and trade policy, with von der Leyen's new commission subject to a final vote in parliament in late October. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump vows to target 'green' spending, EV rules
Trump vows to target 'green' spending, EV rules
Washington, 19 July (Argus) — Former president Donald Trump promised to redirect US green energy spending to other projects, throw out electric vehicle (EV) rules and increase drilling, in a speech Thursday night formally accepting the Republican presidential nomination. Trump's acceptance speech, delivered at the Republican National Convention, offered the clearest hints yet at his potential plans for dismantling the Inflation Reduction Act and the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law. Without explicitly naming the two laws, Trump said he would claw back unspent funds for the "Green New Scam," a shorthand he has used in the past to criticize spending on wind, solar, EVs, energy infrastructure and climate resilience. "All of the trillions of dollars that are sitting there not yet spent, we will redirect that money for important projects like roads, bridges, dams, and we will not allow it to be spent on the meaningless Green New Scam ideas," Trump said during the final night of the convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Trump and his campaign have yet to clearly detail their plans for the two laws, which collectively provide hundreds of billions of dollars worth of federal tax credits and direct spending for renewable energy, EVs, clean hydrogen, carbon capture, sustainable aviation fuel, biofuels, nuclear and advanced manufacturing. Repealing those programs outright could be politically difficult because a majority of spending from the two laws have flowed to districts represented by Republican lawmakers. The speech was Trump's first public remarks since he was grazed by a bullet in an assassination attempt on 13 July. Trump used the shooting to call for the country to unite, but he repeatedly slipped back into the divisive rhetoric of his campaign and his grievances against President Joe Biden, who he claimed was the worst president in US history. Trump vowed to "end the electric vehicle mandate" on the first day of his administration, in an apparent reference to tailpipe rules that are expected to result in about 54pc of new cars and trucks sales being battery-only EVs by model year 2032. Trump also said that unless automakers put their manufacturing facilities in the US, he would put tariffs of 100-200pc on imported vehicles. To tackle inflation, Trump said he would bring down interest rates, which are controlled by the US Federal Reserve, an agency that historically acts independently from the White House. Trump also said he would bring down prices for energy through a policy of "drill, baby, drill" and cutting regulations. Trump also vowed to pursue tax cuts, tariffs and the "largest deportation in history," all of which independent economists say would add to inflation. The Republican convention unfolded as Biden, who is isolating after testing positive for Covid-19, faces a growing chorus of top Democratic lawmakers pressuring him to drop out of the presidential race. Democrats plan to select their presidential nominee during an early virtual roll-call vote or at the Democratic National Convention on 19-22 August. By Chris Knigh t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Q&A: Aviation may pull feeds away from marine: BV
Q&A: Aviation may pull feeds away from marine: BV
London, 19 July (Argus) — Biofuel feedstocks could be routed away from marine fuels to meet demand from the aviation sector if the latter is willing to pay higher prices associated with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), Bureau Veritas (BV) Marine & Offshore's global market leader for sustainable shipping Julien Boulland told Argus. Edited highlights follow: Marine biodiesel has been the largest alternative fuel uptake, with over 1mn t sold in Rotterdam and Singapore last year. But with Argus assessments showing premiums above $225/t to VLSFO dob ARA, how do you see marine biodiesel demand in the medium- to long-term? Shipowners and ship operators have to run an individual cost-analysis on whether the premiums could be offset by potential savings under EU emissions trading system (ETS) and FuelEU Maritime regulations, as well as any future regulations such as the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) economic pricing mechanism . In terms of emissions, biofuels still emit CO2 on a tank-to-wake basis, but less on a well-to-wake basis compared to their fossil equivalents. This will also vary depending on the feedstock for the biofuel as well as the production process. Under the current IMO regulations for energy efficiency, including the Ship Energy Management Plan (SEEMP) and its requirements for fuel reporting (DCS), there might be some indirect commercial benefits for owners, too. For example, a better CII (Carbon Intensity Indicator) score may make a vessel more appealing to charterers and help its owner secure more favourable rates. There are also other factors to consider, such as Scope 3 emissions rights, which can influence demand, as we currently see from voluntary demand from cargo owners seeking those documents. But this will also have a geographic impact on demand, as larger container liner companies usually utilise the east-west route and they might prefer to opt for bunkering the marine biodiesel blend in Singapore due to lower prices. What are the risks associated with bunkering marine biodiesel in relation to conventional ship engines? How significant is the recent FOBAS report that implied a correlation between the use of "unidentified" biofuels and engine pump injector damage? We have supported our shipowner clients in numerous pilots to trial biofuels such as fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) and hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) in variable blends. Overall, these trials have gone smoothly, but we have learned a few things along the way. Firstly, engines do not need to be modified, but since biofuels have slightly different physical properties, it is necessary to find the right engine adjustments. A very good knowledge of the fuel properties is key in determining the right adjustments, and the new revision of ISO 8217 on marine fuel specifications is crucial in supporting this process. Another key finding is the importance of receiving full information on fuel characteristics from the supplier. Finally, BV plays a key role in ensuring full fuel certification on several aspects, including sustainability and physical properties. Used cooking oil (UCO) can also feed into SAF and with potentially greater refining margins. Do you think some feedstocks will be pulled away from marine? When it comes to methanol, we believed marine would take up more of the feedstock compared with the chemicals industry due to greater willingness to pay larger premiums. But with biofuels, it seems to be the other way around where aviation could end up pulling biofuel feedstocks away from maritime. In terms of fuel consumption, the marine and aviation industries are comparable but if aviation are willing to pay more, then it will likely get more of the feedstocks required to produce SAF. What are the implications of the new ISO specifications, what are the key takeaways for marine biodiesel uptake? More has to be done, but now we have parameters for assessing biofuel blend specifications. It was very well accepted by the industry, and now operators and shipowners have a standard to rely on. But it doesn't resolve the question around feedstock cross-industry competition. However, it does also open the door for off-spec Fame residue blends to become ISO-certified — depending on further testing. With IMO aiming for "global regulations for a global market", how do you see conflicts between different regulations affecting the market? We are closely following the IMO development process for a global economic pricing mechanism. IMO has assigned a working group of technical experts to look at this mechanism from an apolitical perspective. In terms of potential regulatory conflicts , we have the example of the Netherlands, where the Dutch emission authority requires the delivery of Proof of Sustainability (PoS) certificates for applying to the scheme of Dutch renewable tickets (HBE-G) which can be traded, but this PoS cannot be used for other purposes, such as the EU ETS. To circumvent this hiccup, we may see the development of new digital certificates, such as an accompanying ISCC-certified Proof of Compliance (PoC). By Hussein Al-Khalisy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Weather sparks uncertainty for Vietnam’s bitumen demand
Weather sparks uncertainty for Vietnam’s bitumen demand
Mumbai, 19 July (Argus) — Expectations of Vietnam's bitumen consumption in July-August are mixed, given an easing in the monsoon season in some regions but an upcoming typhoon season in other parts. The mixed expectations will likely keep importers uncertain about future seaborne purchases. Consumption in Vietnam has been lower than normal in the last quarter because of unfavourable weather, political uncertainties, a lack of new paving projects and delays in disbursement of project funds, according to market participants. The lower consumption kept inventories higher and weighed on demand for spot seaborne volumes, with many importers only focused on taking delivery of their term contract shipments. Some importers in Vietnam are cautious and did not report consumption rising noticeably as weather in the key consuming south and central regions continues to be wet and not suitable for road paving, while the country is also set to experience typhoons next month. Consumption will stay low until September because the typhoon season starts next month, and the first region to get hit is the north before moving towards the south, a key importer told Argus . It is raining in the south and central regions, according to the importer. "The north is alright now but there is no good pick up [in consumption]," the importer said, adding that imported cargo inventories in the region are still notably higher. This is in contrast to expectations from other Vietnamese importers and some Asian traders, which said that consumption and demand for seaborne bitumen are expected to be higher in July and August as compared to previous months this year, given favourable weather in north Vietnam and more enquiries for Singapore cargoes, to restock in August. Consumption in the south and central regions are stable-to-weak, but overall demand in July and August are set to pick up as some new road projects are in the pipeline, a market participant said. Inventories are falling in some parts of the region and there is a need to replenish stocks now, while the domestic selling price is also expected to increase, participants said. "Demand in Haiphong and north Vietnam is good, and we are able to sell more than last month," another importer told Argus . "If the weather continues to be good, then demand will improve further in the coming weeks and that can increase import appetite." Vietnam is a net importer and typically secures most of its seaborne volumes from Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, and China. Vietnam imported 1.04mn t of bitumen in 2023, up by 20pc from 866,000t imported in 2022, according to GTT data. Singapore cargoes accounted for about 32pc of Vietnam's total imports last year, while Thailand, Taiwan, and China together accounted for about 35pc of the total imports, the data showed. This compared to a 33pc and 40pc share, respectively, in 2022. Middle East penetration Some importers are worried that domestic prices are unlikely to rise in the near term, because of increased availability of relatively cheaper Middle East-origin cargoes in the region. They noted that this would cut domestic appetite for Asian cargoes and would in turn weigh on imports. Vietnam imported about 252,000t of bitumen from the Middle East in 2023, accounting for about 24pc of the total imports, show GTT data. This compared to 135,000t imported in 2022, which accounted for about 16pc of the total imports. Imports from the Middle East totalled 156,000t over January-May, nearly tripling from 55,000t imported during the same period last year. The region's imports from Singapore during the five-month period this year totalled 135,000t, down from 150,000t a year earlier. Imports from the Middle East increased as the inter-regional price arbitrage with Singapore was wide open. The Argus assessed ABX 1 fob Singapore prices averaged $421.50/t for the week of 12 July, while fob Iran bulk prices averaged $294.50/t for that week. Vietnam importers noted that Middle East-origin bulk cargoes were priced at low-$400s/t on a cfr basis, which was still lower than prevailing fob Singapore levels during the period. By Sathya Narayanan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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