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Guaido builds up exile state, vows to persevere

  • Market: Crude oil, Electricity, Oil products
  • 23/07/19

Venezuela's opposition leader Juan Guaido promised further appointments to his parallel administration intended to take the reins of government once President Nicolas Maduro leaves office.

Speaking before a seated audience of local and international supporters on the six-month anniversary of his putative interim presidency, Guaido dismissed "magic solutions" and called on Venezuelans to stay the course to prevent the country's political and economic crisis from turning into a "catastrophe".

The event, which doubled as a session of the opposition-led National Assembly over which Guaido presides, took place in a square in opposition-friendly eastern Caracas.

At today's open-air session, the National Assembly deputies approved a resolution to resurrect Venezuela's participation in the 1947 Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance, a symbolic move intended to invoke regional cooperation for a political transition.

Guaido is recognized by dozens of western countries, including the US and Latin America's Lima Group that is meeting today in Buenos Aires. But his popular support is starting to wane after a failed aid campaign in February and a botched military uprising in April.

Guaido called for more UN cooperation and international "mediation", a term he uses to describe controversial Norwegian-sponsored negotiations with the government that are underway in Barbados. He promised impending appointments for the controller's office and the health sector, and called for more countries to establish registries of the growing diaspora.

The assembly has previously approved the appointments of shadow attorney general, security chief and the boards of national oil company PdV and its overseas subsidiary Citgo. But an approved central bank board apparently fell apart late last week after one of the appointments, respected former central bank president Ruth Krivoy, backed out. None of the appointees, who are in exile, has power inside Venezuela, as Maduro still controls all governing institutions.

In another symbolic move earlier today, Guaido issued a decree guaranteeing that Chevron will not lose its assets if the US government declines to extend a sanctions waiver to operate in Venezuela that expires on 27 July.

An expiry would constitute a "force majeure event that could temporarily suspend Chevron's activities in Venezuela, but in no case would that permit the illegitimate regime of Nicolas Maduro to take control or expropriate those assets," the decree states. "When the temporary suspension ceases, all measures will be adopted to allow Chevron and its subsidiaries to resume activities."

Lights out on Guaido

Most Venezuelans could not see or hear Guaido's lengthy speech today because of a blackout that started yesterday afternoon.

Power began returning to Caracas and other areas after midnight, but for most of Venezuela the restoration was short-lived, if it came at all. Schools, businesses and government offices were ordered closed today as the government copes with the latest near-nationwide outage.

Among the affected states are Falcon, Monagas, Anzoategui and Zulia, which encompass PdV's key oil-producing and refining assets. The company relies on the fragile national power grid for most of its operations.

The government blamed the blackout, the fifth since 7 March, on an "electromagnetic attack".

Electricity ministry and state-owned Corpoelec officials say privately that the blackout appears to have been caused by another breakdown of the 765kV transmission system that connects the 10GW Guri hydroelectric complex to the rest of the country.


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18/12/24

US Army Corps proposes new Illinois River lock

US Army Corps proposes new Illinois River lock

Houston, 18 December (Argus) — The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) has proposed a new lock to replace the LaGrange Lock and Dam (L&D) near Beardstown, Illinois, as part of the Navigation and Ecosystem Sustainability Program (NESP). The project would be the first new lock for NESP, a program that invests in infrastructure along the Mississippi and Illinois rivers. The new 1,200ft proposed LaGrange Lock would allow for passage of more barges in a single lockage, instead of having to split the tow in two with the current 600ft LaGrange Lock. At the moment, most tows trying to pass through the LaGrange lock experience multiple hour delays. The new LaGrange lock would have an estimated cost of $20mn, with a construction timeline of five years. The project area would be located on the west bank of the Illinois River near the 85-year old LaGrange L&D, encompassing 425 acres. Real estate acquisition, design plans and contractors are already in place, said the Corps. The current LaGrange lock would remain in operation and become an auxiliary chamber. The Corps opened the upcoming project to public comments on 11 December and will close on 3 January. NESP has four other projects along the Mississippi River. Another full lock construction project is anticipated for Lock and Dam 25. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Alabama lock expected to reopen late April


18/12/24
News
18/12/24

Alabama lock expected to reopen late April

Houston, 18 December (Argus) — The main chamber of the Wilson Lock in Alabama along the Tennessee River is tentatively scheduled to reopen in four months, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps). The Corps expects to finish phase two of dewatering repairs on the lock on 20 April, after which navigation can resume through the main chamber of the lock. The timeline for reopening may shift depending on final assessments, the Corps said. Delays at the lock average around 12 days through the auxiliary chamber, according to the Lock Status Report by the Corps. Delays at the lock should wane during year-end holidays but pick up as spring approaches, barge carriers said. The main chamber of the Wilson Lock will have been closed for nearly seven months by the April reopening after closing on 25 September . By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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UK government underlines its commitment to net zero


18/12/24
News
18/12/24

UK government underlines its commitment to net zero

London, 18 December (Argus) — The UK government has re-emphasised its commitment to the country's legally binding target of net zero emissions by 2050, and says it is acting either fully or partially on all recent recommendations from the independent advisory Climate Change Committee (CCC). The CCC in July found that "urgent action" was needed if the UK was to hit its climate goals — but it was based on the previous Conservative administration's policy. The current Labour government had taken power just two weeks previously. "The inheritance of this government was that we were not on course to rise to the climate challenge or seize the opportunities of action", the government said this week. It set out in detail its action so far on a variety of issues — including renewable power, sustainable transport, domestic heating and biodiversity — as well as future plans. The government will in 2025 publish an update on its plans for "fully delivering" the fourth, fifth and sixth carbon budgets, it said. Carbon budgets are legally binding and place a restriction on UK greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over a five-year period. Carbon budgets 4-6 cover the timeframe 2023-37. It will also set the seventh carbon budget — which covers the period 2038-42 — by June 2026, alongside a strategy "setting out the next phase of our pathway to net zero". The UK has cut GHG emissions by 53pc between 1990 and 2023, provisional data show. It met its first three carbon budgets, which collectively covered 2008-2022. The government has taken several steps since winning the July election, including lifting the de facto onshore wind ban, approving renewables projects and awarding the first permit for carbon transport and storage . It has also slightly watered down its pledge of "clean power" by 2030, to 95pc from 100pc, although it also provided clarity around reaching the target in an action plan released last week. And UK prime minister Keir Starmer last month unveiled an ambitious GHG reduction goal at the UN Cop 29 climate summit. The UK has a headline goal of cutting GHGs by 81pc by 2035, from 1990 levels, and will set out its plan to achieve that "in the coming months", the government said this week. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Ample supply to weigh on base oils market


18/12/24
News
18/12/24

Viewpoint: Ample supply to weigh on base oils market

London, 18 December (Argus) — European base oil prices are likely to fall further in 2025 on a persistent global supply overhang of Group III material and weaker demand for Group I spot supplies. European Group III spot prices with varying approvals face downwards pressure as overseas producers target European buyers supported by attractive margins and ample spot supplies. Stricter emission standards and engine oil specifications have supported a switch towards more premium base oils such as Group II and III away from Group I production, which is in long-term decline. Prices for fca northwest Europe (NWE) Group III 4cst and 6cst supplies with partial or no approvals fell by 16pc and 13pc to €1,125/t and €1,185/t, respectively on the week ending 13 December 2024, the lowest levels since April 2021. Rising Chinese domestic Group III production capacity has slashed the country's requirements for supplies from South Korea and the Mideast Gulf, incentivising suppliers to look towards the European market. Buying appetite for tenders out of Bahrain has also increased and spot supplies have arrived at more competitive levels. This has spurred other suppliers to lower offers further as they look to remain competitive and claim market share before the conclusion of upcoming Group III refinery expansions in 2025. The Mideast Gulf has an estimated Group III production capacity of 2mn t/yr. This is set to increase with state-controlled Saudi Aramco's base oil subsidiary Luberef focusing on expansion projects at its Yanbu facility . This will increase nameplate capacity by 76.2pc, to approximately 1.3mn t/yr of base oils by 2025. Europe remains the most attractive export outlet owing to smaller Group III production capacity in comparison to other regions. Europe has an estimated nameplate base oil capacity of 7mn t/yr, of which 13pc is Group III. A shift away from Group III imports in the US has further supported Mideast and South Korean suppliers to redirect supplies from this region and towards Europe. An announcement by Shell to convert its hydrocracker at its 147,000 b/d Wesseling refinery in west Germany into a Group III base oil production unit looks to increase domestic output by 300,000t/yr. But production is only anticipated to begin in 2026-2028, leaving European buyers mostly dependent on imports in 2025. European demand has plummeted thanks to amply supply levels — leading to a continuous wait-and-see approach from traders as they anticipate prices to fall further. Participants have reported term contracts finalised at price levels well below year ago levels and anticipate spot prices in 2025 to drop as a result. European Group I nameplate capacity has fallen by 55pc over the last decade to around 4mn t/yr owing to refinery closures, according to Argus calculations. In 2024, Eni's Group I 600,000 t/yr Livorno unit shut, and there were several refinery fires and outages elsewhere in Europe. But despite tighter spot supplies, prices fell because of weaker demand. Demand is anticipated to fall further in 2025 as producers prioritise output of more premium base oil. This includes Polish firm Orlen's Gdansk refinery expansion , adding a group II base oil unit with an estimated capacity of 400,000t/yr of Group II. Exxonmobil also announced that it will produce a high-viscosity Group II alternative to the Group I bright stock grade by 2025 out of its Jurong refinery in Singapore. Bright stock currently has no alternative, which supports its production. But Exxon's announcement is likely to weigh on refinery output and shrink the Group I market further. By Christian Hotten Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Element Alpha wins Dec Pakistan NRL bitumen sell tender


18/12/24
News
18/12/24

Element Alpha wins Dec Pakistan NRL bitumen sell tender

London, 18 December (Argus) — Pakistani refiner NRL has awarded its latest single cargo bitumen sell tender to Switzerland-based trading firm Element Alpha, after withdrawing its two previous tenders for October and November loading dates. Unlike in the previous tenders, which specified 6,000t of pen 60/70 bitumen to be loaded at Karachi's Port Qasim port, NRL has on this occasion agreed to sell a 4,500t bulk bitumen cargo of the same penetration grade to Element Alpha at a price in the $370-380/t fob Karachi range, sources involved the tender process said. International bitumen market participants said the cargo is expected to be loaded on the 5,249dwt Bitumen Kosei in the 20-30 December timeframe. The tanker is making its way towards Pakistan having delivered a cargo to Durban, South Africa, that had been loaded at Bahraini state-owned refiner Bapco's Sitra refinery and export terminal. International trading firms said Pakistani exports need to be price competitive with Bahraini exports in particular to be attractive, and that gaps between bids into NRL's October and November tenders for 6,000t cargoes and values sought by the exporter had contributed to their non-awards. Pakistan has become a growing source for cargo flows into South Africa over the past year or so, vying with supplies from the Mideast Gulf and with European Mediterranean flows shipped around west Africa. The last monthly NRL tender to have been awarded was a 6,000t cargo in the $390-400/t fob Karachi range under its September offering that went to an international trading firm . By Keyvan Hedvat Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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