Caracas seeks N Korea help with sanctions, coltan

Market: Crude oil, Metals
04/10/19

Venezuela is stepping up relations with North Korea to gain sanctions-busting advice and explore metals marketing routes in Asia, according to Venezuelan government officials consulted by Argus.

President Nicolas Maduro said this week he plans to visit North Korea "very soon". The visit would form part of an Asian tour that also could include stops in Vietnam and China, according to presidential palace and foreign ministry officials.

Close Maduro ally Diosdado Cabello, who presides a rubber-stamp constituent assembly, returned to Caracas from North Korea and Vietnam last week to prepare for the presidential visit.

During Maduro's official sojourn, several agreements will be signed in strategic areas including mining, agriculture and "general trade," a palace official said. Bilateral security also figures in a tentative agenda that is being developed jointly by presidential and foreign ministry aides.

The palace official noted that both countries "have much in common including the US empire's constant aggression against our sovereign independence and national interests."

A defense ministry official in Caracas said Maduro wants to forge a security alliance between Venezuela, Cuba and North Korea.

Caracas and Pyongyang have maintained distant bilateral diplomatic relations since 1965.

A foreign ministry official said the Maduro government is seeking advice from North Korea on how to evade global US sanctions that have hamstrung the state-owned oil industry and choked off Venezuela's access to international financial markets. "North Korea has decades of experience evading international sanctions," the official said.

A US government official dismissed the significance of the warming ties between Caracas and Pyongyang. Maduro is "grasping at straws" and "posturing" in the face of international pressure to remove him, the official said.

Late Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez prioritized efforts to strengthen relations with North Korea after he first assumed power in January 1999, but the effort did not gain momentum until Maduro replaced Chavez in April 2013, according to the foreign ministry.

North Korea opened its embassy in Caracas in 2014. The Maduro government did not inaugurate Venezuela's embassy in Pyongyang until 21 August 2019 in a joint ceremony presided by Maduro's deputy foreign minister Ruben Dario Molina and North Korean deputy foreign minister Pak Myong Guk.

Coltan king

The Venezuelan delegation to Pyongyang in August was led by Maduro's son, Nicolas Maduro Guerra. Nicknamed Nicolasito, Maduro Guerra controls coltan and gold-mining projects in Bolivar state near Venezuela's border with Colombia. His partners include senior army and national guard officers in Maduro's government, two mining ministry officials tell Argus.

During Nicolasito's week-long stay in Pyongyang, he discussed mining, agricultural and financial issues with senior North Korean government officials, according to a Venezuelan official who formed part of his delegation.

Nicolasito is Venezuela's "untouchable coltan king" and is "seeking new routes to smuggle out coltan and gold from Venezuela" following a recent smuggling bust in Italy, a disgruntled official with the Sebin national intelligence service tells Argus.

During his Asian visits last week, Cabello was tasked by Maduro with proposing potential bilateral agricultural and oil ventures with Vietnamese investors, the palace official said.

Maduro is seeking Vietnamese technical advice and investment to resuscitate Venezuela's rice farming industry which has shrunk from about 1.2mn t/yr in 2014 to only about 400,000 tons in 2018, the palace official said.

The palace official said Maduro also hopes to persuade state-owned PetroVietnam to restart development of PetroMacareo, a 200,000 b/d Orinoco extra-heavy crude joint venture from which the Vietnamese company withdrew in 2013.

According to state-owned Vietnamese media, national assembly chair Nguyen Thi Kim Ngan "affirmed that Vietnam is willing to share experience in socio-economic development, especially in agricultural production, with Venezuela."

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04/10/24

Biden urges Israel against Iran oil strike

Washington, 4 October (Argus) — President Joe Biden today suggested that Israel should not strike Iran's oil facilities, a day after confirming that such an attack was being discussed. "If I were in their shoes, I'd be thinking about other alternatives than striking oil fields," Biden said. He added that "Israelis have not concluded what they're going to do in terms of a strike that's under discussion." Biden's comments on Thursday lifted crude futures out of concern over the damage of a potential Israeli strike and the Iranian response that could follow. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mideast crisis puts Iran’s energy facilities at risk

04/10/24

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04/10/24

Mideast crisis puts Iran’s energy facilities at risk

Dubai, 4 October (Argus) — Iran's large-scale missile attack against Israel on 1 October pushed the Mideast Gulf region another step closer to all-out war, with Israel vowing to retaliate hard for what it saw as "a severe and dangerous escalation." But unlike previous exchanges, which have largely targeted military assets, critical energy infrastructure including oil facilities appear this time to be in Israel's crosshairs. President Joe Biden on 3 October said the US and Israel are discussing possible strikes on Iranian oil facilities as part of consultations on a response. The Biden administration would not provide any details and the only objection it has voiced publicly is against the prospect of an Israeli strike on sites associated with Iran's nuclear programme. The escalating conflict in the region, which began with a surprise cross-border attack by Gaza-based Hamas militants on Israel almost one year ago, has had a limited impact on oil prices, because the effect on physical supply has been almost non-existent despite the scale of the fighting and destruction in Gaza, northern Israel and southern Lebanon. Attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen on oil tankers in the Red Sea rerouted some oil trade without affecting global supply. That could change if Israel makes good on its threat to directly target Iranian oil infrastructure and, especially, if Iran retaliates — as it did in 2019 to a US attempt to cut off its exports — with indiscriminate attacks on oil tankers and infrastructure in the Mideast Gulf. But the extent of the effect on global supply and price will ultimately depend on Israel's intentions, and what kind of facilities are hit. "If the objective is to hurt the country economically, then the most obvious target would be Iran's oil export terminals," said Vortexa senior oil risk analyst Armen Azizian. Despite US sanctions, Iran continues to be a major crude producer — the third biggest in Opec — and a notable exporter. Oil exports averaged around 1.55mn-1.6mn b/d in the first half of this year, rising to 1.65mn-1.7mn b/d in July-August. Early indications suggest September exports were higher still. Iran has several terminals from where it exports its crude and condensate, all on its Mideast Gulf coast. But one, on Kharg Island, dwarves all others in terms of importance. "About 90-95pc of Iran's oil exports typically come out of Kharg, with the other 5-10pc coming out of considerably smaller terminals, such as Soroush, Sirri or Lavan," Azizian said. "Hitting one of those smaller streams wouldn't impact Iran too much, operationally. But if they decide to take Kharg offline, we're talking about a hit of around 1.5mn b/d to its export capacity." Knock-on effects When Iran was struggling to sell its oil because of sanctions the US imposed in 2018, it had upwards of 60mn-70mn bl in floating storage. But these have fallen to just shy of 40mn bl, which would only sustain exports of about 1.3mn b/d for a month, Azizian noted. Iran has onshore storage, but many of the biggest tanks are at Kharg, which could be at risk of damage should the terminal be targeted. An attack on Kharg Island would strike at the heart of the Iranian economy, given how big a chunk of Iran's foreign exchange revenues come from the sale of its oil. Nearly all Iran's exports are absorbed by refiners in China's Shandong province. But the effect of potentially removing 1.5mn b/d from global supply would be felt far beyond Iran and China, as global markets would be forced to adapt. Crude futures moved higher this week on the prospect of Israeli strikes against Iran. The Biden administration for the past year has worked to keep the conflict from escalating, in part because of the potential knock-on effects on oil prices — a key consideration in the US election campaign where Biden's vice-president, Kamala Harris, is facing former president Donald Trump. If the confrontation results in an Iranian outage, avoiding a price rise would require a co-ordinated move by the US and other large consumers and, possibly, by the wider Opec+ group, to ensure supplies can be brought to the market. Opec+ is holding back close to 6mn b/d of production under a series of formal and voluntary cuts, which it could bring back sooner than currently planned. But doing so in response to an attack on Iran could stoke tensions within Opec and between Iran and its Mideast Gulf Arab neighbours, which improved relations with Tehran in recent years. The US would be hard pressed to again guarantee the security of key oil infrastructure facilities across the region. The tepid initial US response to a 2019 attack on Saudi state-controlled Aramco's Abqaiq complex and to a 2022 attack on UAE energy facilities prompted regional producers to consider Washington's military security guarantee as falling short. Kpler senior oil analyst Homayoun Falakshahi sees the the probability of an attack on Kharg Island as low, given China's relations with Israel and Iran. "I imagine China will put as much pressure on Israel not to target Iran's exports," Falakshahi said. Refining plans Alternatively, Israel could opt to target one or more of Iran's 10 oil refineries or condensate splitters that are largely concentrated in the west of the country. Discussion at an industry conference in Fujairah this week about a possible Israeli retaliation centred on Iran's largest refinery, the recently expanded 630,000 b/d capacity Abadan in Khuzestan province. Targeting Abadan was seen as a less provocative move, while still providing a warning to Tehran that energy installations are ‘in play' and hitting Iran's domestic products supply. A hit to Abadan would be significant, but not impossible to navigate for Iran, according to Falakshahi, who notes it produces mostly fuel oil, a product primarily consumed domestically with some exported to Fujairah in the UAE, China and Singapore, among other destinations. Abadan produces other products such as gasoline, which Iran has recently had to begin importing again to meet demand, but output is only enough to meet around 12-13pc of consumption. "It will primarily impact the local market, but little else," Falakshahi said. "But not to the same extent as if, say, the 360,000 b/d Persian Gulf Star condensate splitter was targeted, as that alone delivers enough to meet around 20-25pc of local gasoline demand." Gasoline is a politically-sensitive issue in Iran, with even minor changes in the price of the road fuel sometimes sparking charged demonstrations and riots. More than 200 people were killed in riots in November 2019 triggered by a sudden cut to subsidies that resulted in a sharp increase in gasoline prices. Israel has so far not given any public hints as to when it plans to retaliate or how. But with tensions in the region already at the highest they have been for some years, Iran will be on high alert, and upping security where it can. A trading source told Argus that Iran's state-owned NIOC has in recent days moved many of its empty tankers away from Kharg Island. By Nader Itayim Iran’s oil refineries and terminals Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US tops expectations with 254,000 jobs in Sep

04/10/24

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04/10/24

US tops expectations with 254,000 jobs in Sep

Houston, 4 October (Argus) — The US added more jobs than expected in September and the unemployment rate ticked down, signs the labor market is strengthening heading into the US presidential election. US nonfarm payrolls rose by 254,000 workers last month, and the jobless rate fell to 4.1pc, the Labor Department reported Friday. Gains in August were revised up by 17,000 to 159,000 and those in July were revised up by 55,000 to 144,000. September's job gains were much higher than the 140,000 estimated by economists in a Trading Economics survey. Job gains blew past expectations in the same month the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates for the first time since 2020, citing concerns that a weakening labor market might pull down the overall economy. Odds of a quarter point rate cut at the next Fed meeting in November rose to 91pc today from about 68pc Thursday, according to fed funds futures markets, while odds of a half-point cut fell to 9pc. The Fed last month penciled in 50 basis points of cuts in the remainder of this year. Job gains were higher than the average monthly gains of 203,000 over the prior 12 months, the Labor Department reported. Employment continued to move higher in food services and drinking establishments, health care, government, social assistance and construction. The labor market was little affected by Hurricane Francine, which made landfall in Louisiana on 11 September, during the reference periods for the surveys that contribute to the report. Gains in restaurants and drinking places rose by 69,000 jobs, much higher than the average 14,000 added over the prior 12 months. Health care added 45,000 jobs, below the monthly average of 57,000. Government added 31,000 compared with monthly averages of 45,000. Social assistance added 27,000. Construction added 25,000, near the monthly average. Manufacturing lost 7,000 jobs, most of them in the auto industry. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2pc in August, still higher than the five-decade low of 3.4pc posted in early 2023. Average hourly earnings rose by 4pc in the 12 months through September, up from 3.8pc through August. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Europe to keep using NPI until CBAM: Anglo American

04/10/24

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04/10/24

Europe to keep using NPI until CBAM: Anglo American

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Dockworkers end US port strike

03/10/24

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03/10/24

Dockworkers end US port strike

Houston, 3 October (Argus) — US dockworkers have ended a port strike that had shut container terminals from Maine to Texas, after their union late Thursday struck a tentative agreement on wages. The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) has agreed to extend its contract with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) until 15 January to provide time for negotiating the remaining outstanding issues, the ILA said in a statement. The USMX includes containership owners, terminal operators and port associations. "Effective immediately, all current job actions will cease and all work covered by the master contract will resume," the ILA said. The strike, which started on 1 October, had forced containership operators to queue up outside US east coast ports. Major container shipping agencies such as Maersk had initiated surcharges for US east coast and Gulf coast-bound containers later in October. By Jack Kaskey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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